MEDIUM - 阿拉弗拉海33U(93P) - 7.8S 136.3E

ygsj24

AXAU01 ADRM 100120
IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
ISSUED BY AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
AT: 0120 UTC 10/05/2025
NAME: TROPICAL LOW
IDENTIFIER: 33U
DATA AT: 0000 UTC
LATITUDE: 7.5S
LONGITUDE: 137.1E
LOCATION ACCURACY: WITHIN 30NM (55 KM)
MOVEMENT TOWARDS: WEST (270 DEG)
SPEED OF MOVEMENT: 1 KNOTS (2 KM/H)
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE WIND: 25 KNOTS (45 KM/H)
MAXIMUM 3-SECOND WIND GUST: 45 KNOTS (85 KM/H)
CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1005 HPA
RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS NE QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS SE QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS SW QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS NW QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS NE QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS SE QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS SW QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS NW QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 64-KNOT WINDS:   NM (  KM)
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS:   NM (  KM)
DVORAK INTENSITY CODE: T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS
PRESSURE OF OUTERMOST ISOBAR: 1008 HPA
RADIUS OF OUTERMOST CLOSED ISOBAR: 150 NM (280 KM)
FORECAST DATA
DATE/TIME    : LOCATION    : LOC. ACCURACY: MAX WIND   : CENTRAL PRESSURE
(UTC)        : DEGREES     :      NM  (KM): KNOTS(KM/H): HPA
+06:  10/0600:  7.7S 137.1E:     045 (085):  025  (045): 1004
+12:  10/1200:  7.9S 137.1E:     060 (110):  030  (055): 1002
+18:  10/1800:  8.0S 137.1E:     070 (125):  030  (055): 1002
+24:  11/0000:  8.1S 137.2E:     075 (140):  030  (055): 1001
+36:  11/1200:  8.2S 137.2E:     080 (150):  035  (065):  999
+48:  12/0000:  8.2S 136.9E:     105 (190):  040  (075):  996
+60:  12/1200:  8.0S 136.6E:     115 (210):  035  (065):  999
+72:  13/0000:  7.9S 136.1E:     135 (250):  030  (055): 1002
+96:  14/0000:  7.3S 134.6E:     170 (320):  020  (035): 1007
+120: 15/0000:  6.0S 132.3E:     190 (350):  020  (035): 1007
REMARKS:
TROPICAL LOW 33U IS SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING NEAR THE COAST OF WEST PAPUA.

POSITION BASED ON ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE
AS THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH OF THE SURFACE CIRCULATION.

DVORAK DT OF 2.0 BASED ON CURVED BAND WITH A 0.3 WRAP. MET IS 1.5 BASED ON D-
TREND WITH PAT ADJUSTED TO 2.0. FT/CI 2.0. INTENSITY IS 25 KNOTS BASED ON
EARLIER SCAT PASSES AND IN AGREEMENT WITH DVORAK. D-PRINT IS 21 KTS (1-MIN) AND
IS THE ONLY OBJECTIVE AID AVAILABLE FOR NOW.

33U IS IN A FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH AMPLE
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND LOW TO MODERATE SHEAR OF APPROXIMATELY 10-15 KNOTS. AN
UPPER TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST IS PROVIDING GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE. AS THE TROUGH
PASSES TO THE SOUTH THE UPPER DIVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE DURING SATURDAY
AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY PROVIDING A GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR 33U TO DEVELOP
FURTHER. FROM MONDAY THE SAME TROUGH THEN BEGINS TO INCREASE THE SHEAR OVER 33U
AND IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AGAIN.

DUE TO ITS SMALL SIZE 33U COULD DEVELOP QUICKLY, HOWEVER IT'S LOW LATITUDE AND
PROXIMITY TO LAND COULD LIMIT THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION. PEAK FORECAST WINDS
ARE CURRENTLY 40 KTS BUT WITH GALES CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN SIDE, AIDED BY THE
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE.

OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW WITH LOW LEVEL EASTERLY
WINDS ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE DUE TO THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH, BALANCED BY
BOTH SOME CROSS-EQUATORIAL WESTERLY WINDS TO THE NORTH AND WESTERLY WINDS IN
THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS DUE TO THE MID-UPPER TROUGH ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE. IF
33U STRENGTHENS AND BECOMES A DEEPER SYSTEM THEN THE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH
BECOMES MORE LIKELY TO STEER 33U SLOWLY FURTHER SOUTH. AS THE SHEAR INCREASES
ON MONDAY, 33U WILL BECOME A SHALLOWER SYSTEM AND MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST DUE TO
THE PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL SOUTH EASTERLY WINDS. WHILE FORECAST MODELS GENERALLY
AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO, THERE ARE A FEW THAT MAINTAIN A WEAKER TROPICAL LOW
THAT MOVES OVER PAPUA AND DISSIPATES.

COPYRIGHT COMMONWEALTH OF AUSTRALIA
==
THE NEXT BULLETIN FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY: 10/0730 UTC.=

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Forecast description
Tropical Low 33U
Tropical low developing in northern Arafura Sea.

• Tropical low 33U is in the northern Arafura Sea, near the coast of West Papua.
• There is a Moderate likelihood that 33U strengthens into a tropical cyclone on Sunday or Monday before it weakens again by Tuesday.
• 33U is expected to remain north of the Northern Territory and not directly impact the Top End coast.
  

Last updated
5 hours ago, 11:27 pm UTC

Tropical lows

Today 12:00 pm

Tomorrow 12:00 am

Tomorrow 12:00 pm

Mon 12 May 12:00 am

Mon 12 May 12:00 pm

Tue 13 May 12:00 am

Tue 13 May 12:00 pm

Wed 14 May 12:00 am

Wed 14 May 12:00 pm

Thu 15 May 12:00 am

Thu 15 May 12:00 pm

Fri 16 May 12:00 am

Fri 16 May 12:00 pm

Sat 17 May 12:00 am

Tropical Low 33U

5% Low

25% Moderate

35% Moderate

35% Moderate

15% Low

5% Low

Less than 5% Very Low

Less than 5% Very Low

None

None

None

None

None

None

红豆棒冰冰

SSD 00Z分析T1.5

TXPS27 KNES 092352
TCSWSP
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (93P)
B.  09/2330Z
C.  8.0S
D.  136.0E
E.  THREE/HIMAWARI-9
F.  T1.5/1.5
G.  IR/EIR/VIS
H.  REMARKS...3/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.5. 2136Z SSMIS PASS
SHOWS GOOD BANDING AND DEFINED LLCC. CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS AS COLD AS -88
C. UPR-LVL OUTFLOW GRDLY IMPROVING S AND W QUADS. MET=1.0 AND PT=1.5. FT
BASED ON DT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...KONON

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ECMWF及GFS 18Z系集

红豆棒冰冰

今天早晨ASCAT风场扫描

pocketbox

ABPW10 PGTW 100600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/100600Z-110600ZMAY2025//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
7.7S 138.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.1S 136.8E, APPROXIMATELY 311 NM NORTH
OF GOVE AIRPORT, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING, PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MODERATE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. FURTHERMORE, WARM (28-
29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A HUMID CLIMATE ARE CURRENTLY HELPING
93P WITH POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 93P WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY NEAR THE
ARAFURA SEA AND CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

红豆棒冰冰

SSD 06Z分析维持T1.5

TXPS27 KNES 100556
TCSWSP
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (93P)
B.  10/0530Z
C.  7.8S
D.  136.2E
E.  THREE/HIMAWARI-9
F.  T1.5/1.5
G.  IR/EIR/VIS
H.  REMARKS...3/10 BANDING YIELDS A DT OF 1.5. THE MET IS 1.0 BASED
ON THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT TREND WITHIN THE FIRST 24 HOURS. THE PT IS
1.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE PT SINCE THE CLOUD FEATURES WERE NOT CLEAR
CUT AND A PATTERN ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...COVERDALE

ygsj24

AXAU01 ADRM 100705
IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
ISSUED BY AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
AT: 0705 UTC 10/05/2025
NAME: TROPICAL LOW
IDENTIFIER: 33U
DATA AT: 0600 UTC
LATITUDE: 7.5S
LONGITUDE: 137.3E
LOCATION ACCURACY: WITHIN 30NM (55 KM)
MOVEMENT TOWARDS: SOUTH SOUTHWEST (213 DEG)
SPEED OF MOVEMENT: 2 KNOTS (3 KM/H)
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE WIND: 25 KNOTS (45 KM/H)
MAXIMUM 3-SECOND WIND GUST: 45 KNOTS (85 KM/H)
CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1002 HPA
RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS NE QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS SE QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS SW QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS NW QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS NE QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS SE QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS SW QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS NW QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 64-KNOT WINDS:   NM (  KM)
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS:   NM (  KM)
DVORAK INTENSITY CODE: T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS
PRESSURE OF OUTERMOST ISOBAR: 1006 HPA
RADIUS OF OUTERMOST CLOSED ISOBAR: 150 NM (280 KM)
FORECAST DATA
DATE/TIME    : LOCATION    : LOC. ACCURACY: MAX WIND   : CENTRAL PRESSURE
(UTC)        : DEGREES     :      NM  (KM): KNOTS(KM/H): HPA
+06:  10/1200:  7.8S 137.2E:     045 (085):  030  (055): 1001
+12:  10/1800:  8.1S 137.2E:     055 (100):  030  (055): 1000
+18:  11/0000:  8.4S 137.2E:     060 (115):  030  (055): 1000
+24:  11/0600:  8.5S 137.3E:     065 (120):  035  (065):  997
+36:  11/1800:  8.6S 137.3E:     080 (145):  040  (075):  994
+48:  12/0600:  8.6S 136.7E:     095 (175):  040  (075):  995
+60:  12/1800:  8.5S 136.0E:     115 (210):  035  (065):  998
+72:  13/0600:  8.4S 135.2E:     130 (240):  025  (045): 1003
+96:  14/0600:  7.3S 133.1E:     170 (310):  020  (035): 1006
+120: 15/0600:  6.0S 131.0E:     175 (330):  020  (035): 1005
REMARKS:
TROPICAL LOW 33U IS SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING NEAR THE COAST OF WEST PAPUA.

POSITION BASED ON ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE
AS THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SURFACE
CIRCULATION.

DVORAK DT OF 2.0 BASED ON CURVED BAND WITH A 0.3 WRAP. MET IS 1.5 BASED ON D-
TREND WITH PAT ADJUSTED TO 2.0. FT/CI 2.0. INTENSITY IS 25 KNOTS BASED ON
EARLIER SCAT PASSES AND IN AGREEMENT WITH DVORAK. D-PRINT IS 21 KTS (1-MIN) AND
IS THE ONLY OBJECTIVE AID AVAILABLE FOR NOW.

33U IS IN A FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH AMPLE
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND LOW TO MODERATE SHEAR OF APPROXIMATELY 10-15 KNOTS. AN
UPPER TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST IS PROVIDING GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE. AS THE TROUGH
PASSES TO THE SOUTH THE UPPER DIVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE DURING SATURDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY PROVIDING A GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR 33U TO DEVELOP
FURTHER. FROM MONDAY THE SAME TROUGH THEN BEGINS TO INCREASE THE SHEAR OVER 33U
AND IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AGAIN.

DUE TO ITS SMALL SIZE 33U COULD DEVELOP QUICKLY, HOWEVER IT'S LOW LATITUDE AND
PROXIMITY TO LAND COULD LIMIT THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION. PEAK FORECAST WINDS
ARE CURRENTLY 40 KTS BUT WITH GALES CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN SIDE, AIDED BY THE
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE.

OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW WITH LOW LEVEL EASTERLY
WINDS ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE DUE TO THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH, BALANCED BY
BOTH SOME CROSS-EQUATORIAL WESTERLY WINDS TO THE NORTH AND WESTERLY WINDS IN
THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS DUE TO THE MID-UPPER TROUGH ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE. IF
33U STRENGTHENS AND BECOMES A DEEPER SYSTEM THEN THE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH
BECOMES MORE LIKELY TO STEER 33U SLOWLY FURTHER SOUTH. AS THE SHEAR INCREASES
ON MONDAY, 33U WILL BECOME A SHALLOWER SYSTEM AND MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST DUE TO
THE PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL SOUTH EASTERLY WINDS. WHILE FORECAST MODELS GENERALLY
AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO, THERE ARE A FEW THAT MAINTAIN A WEAKER TROPICAL LOW
THAT MOVES OVER PAPUA AND DISSIPATES.

COPYRIGHT COMMONWEALTH OF AUSTRALIA
==
THE NEXT BULLETIN FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY: 10/1330 UTC.=

红豆棒冰冰

ECMWF及GFS 00Z系集

ygsj24

AXAU01 ADRM 101313
IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
ISSUED BY AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
AT: 1313 UTC 10/05/2025
NAME: TROPICAL LOW
IDENTIFIER: 33U
DATA AT: 1200 UTC
LATITUDE: 7.7S
LONGITUDE: 137.7E
LOCATION ACCURACY: WITHIN 30NM (55 KM)
MOVEMENT TOWARDS: EAST SOUTHEAST (109 DEG)
SPEED OF MOVEMENT: 3 KNOTS (6 KM/H)
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE WIND: 30 KNOTS (55 KM/H)
MAXIMUM 3-SECOND WIND GUST: 45 KNOTS (85 KM/H)
CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1004 HPA
RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS NE QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS SE QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS SW QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS NW QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS NE QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS SE QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS SW QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS NW QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 64-KNOT WINDS:   NM (  KM)
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS:   NM (  KM)
DVORAK INTENSITY CODE: T1.5/1.5/S0.0/24HRS STT:W0.5/06HRS
PRESSURE OF OUTERMOST ISOBAR: 1008 HPA
RADIUS OF OUTERMOST CLOSED ISOBAR: 120 NM (220 KM)
FORECAST DATA
DATE/TIME    : LOCATION    : LOC. ACCURACY: MAX WIND   : CENTRAL PRESSURE
(UTC)        : DEGREES     :      NM  (KM): KNOTS(KM/H): HPA
+06:  10/1800:  8.0S 137.8E:     055 (105):  030  (055): 1003
+12:  11/0000:  8.4S 137.8E:     060 (105):  030  (055): 1002
+18:  11/0600:  8.6S 137.5E:     050 (095):  030  (055): 1002
+24:  11/1200:  8.6S 137.3E:     060 (110):  030  (055): 1004
+36:  12/0000:  8.4S 136.8E:     070 (130):  030  (055): 1002
+48:  12/1200:  8.2S 136.4E:     090 (170):  025  (045): 1004
+60:  13/0000:  8.1S 135.6E:     110 (205):  025  (045): 1005
+72:  13/1200:  7.8S 134.7E:     120 (225):  020  (035): 1007
+96:  14/1200:  6.4S 132.9E:     145 (270):  020  (035): 1007
+120: 15/1200:  5.1S 131.9E:     145 (265):  020  (035): 1007
REMARKS:
TROPICAL LOW 33U IS STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST OF WEST PAPUA.

POSITION BASED ON AN 1132Z ASCAT-B PASS. CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MODERATE, WITH A
VERY ELONGATED NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION.

DVORAK DT OF 1.5 BASED ON A SHEAR PATTERN WITH A LITTLE OVER 1 DEGREE OF
SEPARATION BETWEEN THE CENTRE AND THE EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. MET IS 1.5
BASED ON S TREND WITH PAT ALSO 1.5. FT IS 1.5, WITH CI HELD AT 2.0 DURING
INITIAL WEAKENING. INTENSITY IS 30 KNOTS BASED ON THE 1132 ASCAT-B PASS SHOWING
A BROAD AREA OF 30 KNOT WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTRE (A SMALL AREA OF GALES
ARE SUSPECTED TO BE RAIN AFFECTED). THESE STRONG WINDS APPEARS TO BE
SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN AND ENHANCED BY THE DEEP CONVECTION, WITH WINDS AROUND THE
REMAINDER OF THE SYSTEM BARELY ABOVE 15 KNOTS. THE ONLY OBJECTIVE AIDS ARE
D-PRINT (21 KTS (1-MIN) AT 1200 UTC AND D-MINT (26 KNOTS (1-MIN) AT 0853 UTC).

THERE ARE ASPECTS OF THE ENVIRONMENT THAT ARE FAVOURABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
33U, WITH AMPLE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE, WARM WATERS AND AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE
SOUTHWEST PROVIDING GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE. HOWEVER, THERE ARE MODERATE
NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE CENTRE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE,
RESULTING IN A SIGNIFICANT VORTICITY TILT WITH HEIGHT. 33U WILL STRUGGLE TO
OVERCOME THIS DURING SUNDAY, AFTER WHICH TIME THE WINDOW FOR DEVELOPMENT
CLOSES. FROM MONDAY THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO INCREASE THE SHEAR OVER 33U, AND
DRY MID-LEVEL AIR WILL WRAP AROUND THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM AND BE INGESTED INTO
THE CENTRE. 33U SHOULD WEAKEN AND THEN DISSIPATE BY MID-WEEK.

WITH 33U STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP, GALES ARE NO LONGER FORECAST IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE, WITH THE MAXIMUM FORECAST INTENSITY NOW CAPPED AT 30 KNOTS THROUGH
UNTIL MONDAY MORNING. THESE STRONGEST WIND SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TOWARDS THE SOUTH, WITH
33U SITUATED NEAR THE COL BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL RIDGES. AS THE SHEAR INCREASES
ON MONDAY, 33U WILL BECOME A SHALLOWER SYSTEM AND MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST DUE TO
THE PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL SOUTH EASTERLY TRADE FLOW. WHILE FORECAST MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO, THERE ARE A FEW THAT MAINTAIN A WEAKER
TROPICAL LOW THAT MOVES OVER PAPUA AND DISSIPATES.

COPYRIGHT COMMONWEALTH OF AUSTRALIA
==
THE NEXT BULLETIN FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY: 10/1930 UTC.=