所罗门群岛以南34U(94P) - 13.1S 158.8E

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今天早晨ASCAT风场扫描

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Forecast description
Tropical Low 34U
Tropical low developing between Papua New Guinea and the Solomon Islands.

• A tropical low (34U) is developing in the Solomon Sea, between Papua New Guinea and the Solomon Is.
• Tropical Low 34U has a Low risk of developing into a tropical cyclone on Tuesday increasing to Moderate on Wednesday before easing to low during Wednesday.
• Tropical Low 34U is expected to be slow-moving initially during its formation then move southeast, then south towards the end of the week, remaining over open waters well away from Australia.
  

Last updated
an hour ago, 01:15 am UTC

Tropical lows

Today 12:00 pm

Tomorrow 12:00 am

Tomorrow 12:00 pm

Wed 14 May 12:00 am

Wed 14 May 12:00 pm

Thu 15 May 12:00 am

Thu 15 May 12:00 pm

Fri 16 May 12:00 am

Fri 16 May 12:00 pm

Sat 17 May 12:00 am

Sat 17 May 12:00 pm

Sun 18 May 12:00 am

Sun 18 May 12:00 pm

Mon 19 May 12:00 am

Tropical Low 33U

5% Low

Less than 5% Very Low

Less than 5% Very Low

Less than 5% Very Low

None

None

None

None

None

None

None

None

None

None

Tropical Low 34U

Less than 5% Very Low

10% Low

15% Low

25% Moderate

25% Moderate

15% Low

10% Low

10% Low

5% Low

Less than 5% Very Low

Less than 5% Very Low

Less than 5% Very Low

None

None

pocketbox

ABPW10 PGTW 120600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/120600Z-130600ZMAY2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/120151ZMAY2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
...
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
10.4S 156.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.7S 156.1E, APPROXIMATELY 238 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HONIARA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICT A POORLY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) OBSCURED BY FLARING CONVECTION CURRENTLY BEING SHEARED FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, OFFSET BY MODERATE
TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT
THE AREA OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD WITH
SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION. ENSEMBLE MODELS ALSO AGREE ON A SOUTHEASTWARD
TRACK WHILE THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS MORE UNCERTAIN, WITH ECENS BEING
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
...
      (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.//
NNNN

红豆棒冰冰

ECMWF及GFS 00Z系集

红豆棒冰冰

Forecast description
Tropical Low 34U
Tropical low 34U may develop between Papua New Guinea and the Solomon Islands but low chance of becoming a tropical cyclone.

• A tropical low (34U) is developing in the Solomon Sea, between Papua New Guinea and the Solomon Is.
• Tropical Low 34U has a Low risk of developing into a tropical cyclone from late Tuesday through to Friday morning.
• Tropical Low 34U is expected to be slow-moving initially during its formation then move southeast, then south towards the end of the week, remaining over open waters well away from Australia.
  

Last updated
an hour ago, 08:47 am UTC

Tropical lows

Today 12:00 pm

Tomorrow 12:00 am

Tomorrow 12:00 pm

Wed 14 May 12:00 am

Wed 14 May 12:00 pm

Thu 15 May 12:00 am

Thu 15 May 12:00 pm

Fri 16 May 12:00 am

Fri 16 May 12:00 pm

Sat 17 May 12:00 am

Sat 17 May 12:00 pm

Sun 18 May 12:00 am

Sun 18 May 12:00 pm

Mon 19 May 12:00 am

Mon 19 May 12:00 pm

Tropical Low 33U

Less than 5% Very Low

Less than 5% Very Low

Less than 5% Very Low

Less than 5% Very Low

None

None

None

None

None

None

None

None

None

None

None

Tropical Low 34U

Less than 5% Very Low

Less than 5% Very Low

10% Low

15% Low

15% Low

15% Low

10% Low

10% Low

Less than 5% Very Low

Less than 5% Very Low

Less than 5% Very Low

Less than 5% Very Low

None

None

None

---

Tropical Low 34U
Tropical low 34U may develop between Papua New Guinea and the Solomon Islands but low chance of becoming a tropical cyclone.

• A tropical low (34U) is developing in the Solomon Sea, between Papua New Guinea and the Solomon Is.
• Tropical Low 34U has a Low risk of developing into a tropical cyclone from late Tuesday through to Friday morning.
• Tropical Low 34U is expected to be slow-moving initially during its formation then move southeast, then south towards the end of the week, remaining over open waters well away from Australia.
  

Last updated
4 hours ago, 08:47 am UTC

Tropical lows

Tomorrow 12:00 am

Tomorrow 12:00 pm

Wed 14 May 12:00 am

Wed 14 May 12:00 pm

Thu 15 May 12:00 am

Thu 15 May 12:00 pm

Fri 16 May 12:00 am

Fri 16 May 12:00 pm

Sat 17 May 12:00 am

Sat 17 May 12:00 pm

Sun 18 May 12:00 am

Sun 18 May 12:00 pm

Mon 19 May 12:00 am

Mon 19 May 12:00 pm

Tropical Low 33U

Less than 5% Very Low

Less than 5% Very Low

Less than 5% Very Low

None

None

None

None

None

None

None

None

None

None

None

Tropical Low 34U

Less than 5% Very Low

10% Low

15% Low

15% Low

15% Low

10% Low

10% Low

Less than 5% Very Low

Less than 5% Very Low

Less than 5% Very Low

Less than 5% Very Low

None

None

None

红豆棒冰冰

稍早前ASCAT风场扫描

红豆棒冰冰

ECMWF及GFS 06Z系集

红豆棒冰冰

ECMWF及GFS 12Z系集

红豆棒冰冰

Forecast description
Tropical Low 34U
Weak tropical low 34U between Papua New Guinea and the Solomon Islands only a low chance of developing on Wednesday Thursday.

• A weak tropical low (34U) is developing in the far south of the Solomon Sea, between Papua New Guinea and the Solomon Is.
• There is now a lower chance of 34U developing, although there is a small window on Wednesday into Thursday when the TC risk briefly rises to just 5-10% (Low). It should then weaken.
• 34U is expected to move to the southeast and remain over open waters of the Pacific well to the east of Australia and have no impact to the mainland.
  

Last updated
2 hours ago, 11:56 pm UTC

Tropical lows

Today 12:00 pm

Tomorrow 12:00 am

Tomorrow 12:00 pm

Thu 15 May 12:00 am

Thu 15 May 12:00 pm

Fri 16 May 12:00 am

Fri 16 May 12:00 pm

Sat 17 May 12:00 am

Sat 17 May 12:00 pm

Sun 18 May 12:00 am

Sun 18 May 12:00 pm

Mon 19 May 12:00 am

Mon 19 May 12:00 pm

Tue 20 May 12:00 am

Tropical Low 34U

Less than 5% Very Low

5% Low

10% Low

10% Low

Less than 5% Very Low

Less than 5% Very Low

Less than 5% Very Low

None

None

None

None

None

None

None

红豆棒冰冰

今天早晨ASCAT风场扫描