MEDIUM - 印度以西AS 01(93A) - 16.8N 73.3E

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ABIO10 PGTW 211200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
REISSUED/211200Z-211800ZMAY2025//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
14.2N 73.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 71.2E, APPROXIMATELY 179 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 210830Z ATMS 88GHZ IMAGE REVEALS LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUING TO
CONSOLIDATE WITH FRAGMENTED CONVECTION FLARING UP OVER THE CENTER OF THE
SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND VERY WARM (30C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT THAT 93A WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY INTENSIFY, HOWEVER ECMWF IS
LESS AGGRESSIVE IN THE NEAR-TERM, REACHING TC CRITERIA LATER THAN OTHER
MODELS DO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO MEDIUM.//
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红豆棒冰冰

JTWC及SSD 12Z分析均维持T1.0

TPIO10 PGTW 211152
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 93A (W OF INDIA)
B. 21/1130Z
C. 16.78N
D. 70.90E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T1.0/1.0  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .25 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   21/0830Z  16.53N  70.97E  ATMS
   MUSE

TXIO22 KNES 211221
TCSNIO
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (93A)
B.  21/1130Z
C.  16.0N
D.  71.4E
E.  FIVE/MET-9
F.  T1.0/1.0
G.  IR/EIR/VIS
H.  REMARKS...GREATER THAN 2/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.0. THE MET
AND PT BOTH EQUAL 1.0. THE FT IS BASED ON THE MET DUE TO BANDING FEATURES
NOT BEING CLEAR CUT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...LINER

红豆棒冰冰

ECMWF及GFS 06Z系集

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 15Z分析维持T1.0

TPIO10 PGTW 211451
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 93A (W OF INDIA)
B. 21/1430Z
C. 16.67N
D. 71.13E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. T1.0/1.0/S0.0/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .25 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   21/0904Z  16.72N  70.93E  TMPT
   MUSE

红豆棒冰冰

红豆棒冰冰 发表于 2025-5-21 23:03
JTWC 15Z分析维持T1.0

JTWC稍早前修改了15Z分析，仍然维持T1.0

TPIO10 PGTW 211638 COR
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 93A (WEST OF INDIA)
B. 21/1431Z
C. 16.67N
D. 71.13E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. T1.0/1.0  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .25 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT. CORRECTED LONG TERM
TREND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   HUYNH

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 18Z分析维持T1.0

TPIO10 PGTW 211756
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 93A (WEST OF INDIA)
B. 21/1730Z
C. 16.50N
D. 71.24E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. T1.0/1.0/S0.0/18HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES LOCATED UNDER THE COLD OVERCAST YIELD A DT OF 1.5. MET AGREES
WITH DT. PT YIELDS 1.0. DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   21/1558Z  16.47N  71.53E  GPMI
   HUYNH

红豆棒冰冰

ABIO10 PGTW 211800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/211800Z-221800ZMAY2025//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
16.2N 72.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 71.9E, APPROXIMATELY 165 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 210830Z ATMS 88GHZ IMAGE REVEALS LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUING TO
CONSOLIDATE WITH FRAGMENTED CONVECTION FLARING UP OVER THE CENTER OF
THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND VERY WARM (28-30C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN
FAIR AGREEMENT THAT 93A WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY INTENSIFY, HOWEVER
ECMWF IS LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS, REACHING TC
CRITERIA LATER THAN OTHER MODELS DO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

红豆棒冰冰

SSD 18Z分析升至T1.5

TXIO22 KNES 211836
TCSNIO
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (93A)
B.  21/1730Z
C.  16.8N
D.  72.0E
E.  FIVE/MET-9
F.  T1.5/1.5
G.  IR/EIR/SWIR/PRXY
H.  REMARKS...2.5/10 CURVED BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.0. THE MET
IS 1.0 AND THE PT IS 1.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE PT DUE TO THE BANDING
FEATURE NOT BEING CLEAR CUT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...LINER

红豆棒冰冰

ECMWF及GFS 12Z系集

红豆棒冰冰

今天凌晨ASCAT风场扫描