墨西哥西南热带风暴“科斯梅”(03E.Cosme) - 远期与02E藤原

红豆棒冰冰

稍早前ASCAT风场扫描

ygsj24

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 082030
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Cosme Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032025
200 PM MST Sun Jun 08 2025

Deep convection has been increasing near the center and in curved
bands on the western side of the circulation during the past
several hours. An ASCAT-C pass from a few hours ago showed peak
winds in the 35-40 kt range, and based on that data, the depression
has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Cosme with the initial
intensity set at 40 kt.

Cosme will likely continue to strengthen for the next day or two as
it remains in an environment of low to moderate wind shear, abundant
moisture, and over warm SSTs. The NHC intensity forecast shows a
peak of 60 kt at 24 and 36 hours, and it wouldn't be surprising if
Cosme becomes a hurricane during that time frame. By mid-week,
however, the storm is expected to move over progressively cooler
waters and into a drier airmass, which should cause the system to
begin weakening. Cosme is now forecast to become a remnant low in 3
days and dissipate in 4 days.

The storm is moving northwestward at 7 kt, and that general motion
is expected to continue during the next couple of days.  After that
time, the interaction with Barbara will likely result in an initial
slow down and then turn to the northeast. There is a fair amount of
spread in the guidance due to the complexity of this interaction.  
The NHC track forecast has been adjusted a little to the right of
the previous one to account for the initial motion/position and to
be in better agreement with the latest consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/2100Z 13.3N 111.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
12H  09/0600Z 14.0N 111.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
24H  09/1800Z 14.7N 113.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
36H  10/0600Z 15.1N 113.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
48H  10/1800Z 15.5N 113.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
60H  11/0600Z 16.4N 113.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
72H  11/1800Z 17.5N 112.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

红豆棒冰冰

SSD 00Z分析升至T2.5

TXPZ25 KNES 090029
TCSENP
A.  03E (COSME)
B.  09/0000Z
C.  13.6N
D.  111.3W
E.  THREE/GOES-W
F.  T2.5/2.5
G.  IR/EIR/VIS
H.  REMARKS...3.5/10 CURVED BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 2.0. THE MET IS
2.5 BASED ON A NORMALLY DEVELOPING TREND IN APPARENT INTENSITY OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. THE PT IS ALSO 2.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE MET DUE TO
BANDING FEATURES NOT BEING CLEAR CUT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...HOSLEY

pocketbox

WTPZ43 KNHC 090235
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Cosme Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032025
800 PM MST Sun Jun 08 2025

Cosme is gradually improving in organization with deep convection
pulsing, albeit with the center on the northern edge of the
convection.  A recent microwave pass did show a prominent curved
band especially in the southern semicircle of the storm.  The
initial wind speed will stay at 40 kt for this advisory, between
the lower subjective Dvorak estimates and higher objective values.  

Conditions look conducive for strengthening for about the next 24
hours while Cosme moves within a fairly low shear and warm SST
environment.  Thereafter, some increase in easterly shear is
possible, and the storm should move over a tight SST gradient into a
drier airmass.  Cosme is forecast to respond to these conditions by
weakening quickly by midweek.  The only change to the previous
forecast is a small reduction in the intensity forecast at 60 and 72
h, consistent with the latest model consensus.  It would not be
surprising to see Cosme become a remnant low faster than shown
below.

The storm continues moving northwestward at 8 kt, and a
west-northwest to northwest motion is anticipated during the next
day or so.  After that time, Tropical Storm Barbara causes a
mid-level ridge to erode, and Cosme should respond by taking a
sharp turn to the northeast around Barbara.  Model guidance has
shifted notably to the left this evening, suggesting a
little more separation of the tropical cyclones before they
interact.  While the new forecast is adjusted to the west, this is
not a particularly confident longer-range forecast due to
the complexity of the interaction.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/0300Z 13.7N 111.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
12H  09/1200Z 14.4N 112.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
24H  10/0000Z 14.9N 114.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
36H  10/1200Z 15.3N 114.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
48H  11/0000Z 15.8N 113.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
60H  11/1200Z 16.9N 113.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
72H  12/0000Z 18.5N 113.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

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全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：曹迈  签发：许映龙  2025 年 06 月 09 日 10 时
东北太平洋海域热带风暴“科斯梅”生成

时        间:    9日08时（北京时）

海        域:    东北太平洋

命        名:    “科斯梅”，COSME

中心位置:    西经111.5度, 北纬13.5度

强度等级:    热带低压

最大风力:    8级，20米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级

中心气压:    999百帕

参考位置:    墨西哥科利马州曼萨尼约西南方向约980公里

变化过程:    “科斯梅”昨天夜间生成

预报结论:    “科斯梅”将以每小时15-20公里的速度向西北方向移动，强度逐渐增强。



图2 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年6月9日08时00分）

红豆棒冰冰

SSD 06Z分析维持T2.5

TXPZ25 KNES 090629
TCSENP
A.  03E (COSME)
B.  09/0600Z
C.  14.1N
D.  112.7W
E.  THREE/GOES-E
F.  T2.5/2.5
G.  IR/EIR/SWIR
H.  REMARKS...SYSTEM CHARACTERIZED BY 5/10 BANDING ON A LOG-10
SCALE. DT=2.5 MET AND PT AGREE. THE FT IS BASED ON THE MET DUE TO A LACK
OF CLEAR CUT BANDING FEATURES.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...FISHER

红豆棒冰冰

稍早前ASCAT风场扫描

pocketbox

WTPZ43 KNHC 090846
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Cosme Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032025
200 AM MST Mon Jun 09 2025

The satellite presentation of Cosme has continued to gradually
improve since the previous advisory, with sustained deep convection
holding over the low-level center. A timely 09/0524Z ASCAT pass
helped with the initial intensity and 34 kt wind radii estimates,
with several wind barbs showing 40 to 45 knot winds. The latest
subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were T3.0/45
knots and T2.5/35 knots respectively. Meanwhile, the objective
Dvorak satellite estimates range from 40 to 50 knots. The initial
intensity has been adjusted up to 45 knots with this advisory
package, in line with the most recent ASCAT pass.

Cosme is moving toward west-northwest at 8 kt. This general motion
is expected to continue during the next 24 hours to the south of a
mid-level ridge, with a gradual slowing in forward speed. Tonight
and Tuesday Barbara is forecast to erode the mid-level ridge to the
north of Cosme, resulting in a further slowing in motion and a shift
to the north. An increase in forward speed and a motion to the
north-northeast is expected Tuesday night, with Cosme forecast to
become a post-tropical remnant low on Wednesday. The latest track
forecast is very close to that of the previous advisory and is
generally a blend of the consensus guidance.

Environmental conditions continue to look conducive for
strengthening of Cosme during the next 24 hours or so. Vertical wind
shear will lighten up some while the system passes over 27/28C water
with abundant deep layer moisture. The intensity forecast is similar
to the previous advisory, bringing Cosme close to hurricane strength
late today or tonight. Beyond 24 hours, vertical wind shear is
forecast to increase and mid-level moisture is forecast to decrease,
which should lead to a gradual weakening of Cosme. A more rapid
weakening is then expected by Wednesday as the system moves over
much cooler water, with Cosme expected to dissipate by 96 hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/0900Z 14.2N 112.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
12H  09/1800Z 14.6N 113.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
24H  10/0600Z 15.0N 114.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
36H  10/1800Z 15.4N 114.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
48H  11/0600Z 16.5N 113.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
60H  11/1800Z 17.9N 113.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  12/0600Z 19.0N 113.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Jelsema/Hagen

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全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：曹迈  签发：许映龙  2025 年 06 月 09 日 18 时
“科斯梅”向西北方向移动

时        间:    9日14时（北京时）

海        域:    东北太平洋

命        名:    “科斯梅”，COSME

中心位置:    西经112.4度, 北纬14.0度

强度等级:    热带风暴

最大风力:    9级，23米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级

中心气压:    995百帕

参考位置:    墨西哥科利马州曼萨尼约西南方向约1010公里

变化过程:    过去12小时，强度逐渐增强

预报结论:    “科斯梅”将以每小时15-20公里的速度向西北方向移动，强度逐渐增强。



图2 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年6月9日14时00分）