墨西哥以南热带风暴“芭芭拉”(02E.Barbara) - 西北行进，上望飓风，远期或将与03E藤原

yhh

WTPZ42 KNHC 080840
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Barbara Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022025
300 AM CST Sun Jun 08 2025

Showers and thunderstorms have become better organized in
association with an area of low pressure located offshore of
southwestern Mexico. A small, persistent area of deep convection has
been observed in satellite images tonight, and recent scatterometer
data confirm this has led to the formation of a well-defined, closed
low-level circulation. Therefore, the NHC is starting advisories on
Tropical Storm Barbara with an initial intensity of 40 kt based on
the earlier scatterometer winds.

Barbara is currently within a moist and relatively low shear
environment over warm waters. So, strengthening is expected during
the next day or so, and this could occur quickly given recent
satellite trends and the small size of the storm. The official NHC
forecast shows Barbara becoming a hurricane in 24 h, which is
supported by HAFS-A/B and the HFIP corrected consensus (HCCA). The
window for strengthening is brief, as Barbara is forecast to move
over cooler waters and into a drier mid-level environment by 48 h.
This should disrupt the convective structure of the storm and result
in weakening. By day 5, the remnant low of Barbara is forecast to
either dissipate or become absorbed by the circulation of EP91.

Barbara is moving west-northwestward (295/10 kt) on the south side
of a mid-level ridge, and this motion should continue over the next
couple of days. For this time period, the NHC forecast generally
lies near or between the simple and corrected consensus aids. Given
the forecast track and wind radii, tropical-storm-force winds
are not expected to affect the southwestern coast of Mexico. By
Tuesday, the track forecast becomes more complicated given the
potential for binary interaction between Barbara and another
disturbance (EP91) with a high chance of formation. Because of this,
the long-range track forecast could be subject to larger future
adjustments depending on the evolution of EP91.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/0900Z 15.2N 102.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
12H  08/1800Z 15.8N 103.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
24H  09/0600Z 17.0N 105.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
36H  09/1800Z 18.3N 107.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
48H  10/0600Z 19.1N 108.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
60H  10/1800Z 19.6N 110.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
72H  11/0600Z 19.8N 112.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
96H  12/0600Z 19.5N 114.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

xiaoqianWX

@Atsani艾莎尼 正常，后面升了就会改性质的

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：翟丽萍  签发：向纯怡  2025 年 06 月 08 日 18 时
东北太平洋海域热带风暴“芭芭拉”生成

时        间:    8日14时（北京时）

海        域:    东北太平洋

命        名:    “芭芭拉”，BARBARA

中心位置:    西经102.0度, 北纬15.0度

强度等级:    热带风暴

最大风力:    8级，20米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级

中心气压:    1001百帕

参考位置:    墨西哥格雷罗州锡瓦塔内霍西南方向约285公里

变化过程:    “芭芭拉”今天生成

预报结论:    “芭芭拉”将以每小时15-20公里的速度向西北方向移动，强度逐渐增强。



图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年6月8日14时00分）

红豆棒冰冰

SSD 12Z分析升至T2.5

TXPZ24 KNES 081225
TCSENP
A.  02E (BARBARA)
B.  08/1200Z
C.  15.4N
D.  102.9W
E.  THREE/GOES-E
F.  T2.5/2.5
G.  IR/EIR/SWIR
H.  REMARKS...5/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 2.5. THE MET AND PT
AGREE. THE FT IS BASED ON THE MET BECAUSE THE BANDING FEATURES WERE NOT
CLEAR CUT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...BERTALAN

yhh

WTPZ42 KNHC 081436
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Barbara Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022024
900 AM CST Sun Jun 08 2025

Barbara continues to become better organized this morning with deep
convection bursting near the low-level center. Earlier AMSR2
microwave imagery depicts improved curved banding with an inner core
in the formative stage.  This structure has led to an improved
satellite depiction and intensification. Subjective and objective
intensity estimates have continued to increase this morning, using a
blend of these estimates the intensity is set to 50 kt for this
advisory.

The system is currently within a favorable environment with warm sea
surface temperatures and low vertical wind shear. Further
strengthening is forecast over the next day or so, and this could
occur rather quickly given the small inner core of Barbara. The
latest NHC intensity forecast has increased slightly form the
previous one and shows Barbara becoming a hurricane in 12 hrs.
However, there are some intensity aids that are a little higher than
the NHC forecast, including some explicitly forecasting Rapid
Intensification (RI). RI is possible, and this is something we will
have to monitor over the succeeding forecasts. After 24-36 hrs, the
system will be moving over cooler waters and into a drier mid-level
environment. These factors will cause the system to weaken and
eventually struggle to produce convection. Global model infrared
simulated satellite images depicts the system losing convection by
72 h. By day 4, the system should degenerate into a remnant low, and
dissipate by day 5 as it interacts with the circulation of TD
Three-E.

Barbara is moving west-northwestward (295/10 kt) on the south side
of a mid-level ridge, and this motion should continue over the next
couple of days. The NHC forecast is near the previous one and
lies close to the simple and corrected consensus aids. Given the
forecast track and wind radii, tropical-storm-force winds are not
expected to affect the southwestern coast of Mexico. By Tuesday, the
track forecast becomes more complicated given the potential for
binary interaction between Barbara and TD Three-E. Because of this,
the long-range track forecast could be subject to large future
adjustments depending on the evolution of TD Three-E.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/1500Z 15.7N 103.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
12H  09/0000Z 16.4N 104.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
24H  09/1200Z 17.6N 106.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
36H  10/0000Z 18.6N 107.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
48H  10/1200Z 19.4N 109.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
60H  11/0000Z 19.5N 111.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
72H  11/1200Z 19.5N 112.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H  12/1200Z 19.1N 114.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly

红豆棒冰冰

昨晚SAR扫到55kt

红豆棒冰冰

SSD稍早前修改12Z分析，升至T2.0；18Z分析升至T3.0

TXPZ24 KNES 081744
TCSENP
CCA
A.  02E (BARBARA)
B.  08/1200Z
C.  15.4N
D.  102.9W
E.  THREE/GOES-E
F.  T2.0/2.0
G.  IR/EIR/SWIR
H.  REMARKS...CORRECTED FOR BASIS OF FT. 5/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT
OF 2.5. THE MET AND PT AGREE. THE FT IS BASED ON THE CONSTRAINTS THAT
LIMIT CHANGES IN THE T NUMBER TO 0.5 OVER 6 HOURS.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...BERTALAN

TXPZ24 KNES 081825
TCSENP
A.  02E (BARBARA)
B.  08/1800Z
C.  15.6N
D.  103.6W
E.  THREE/GOES-E
F.  T3.0/3.0
G.  IR/EIR/VIS
H.  REMARKS...7/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 3.0. THE MET IS 3.0 BASED
ON A RAPID DEVELOPMENT TREND OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE PT IS ALSO
3.0. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...BERTALAN

红豆棒冰冰

稍早前ASCAT风场扫描

ygsj24

267
WTPZ42 KNHC 082032
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Barbara Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022025
300 PM CST Sun Jun 08 2025

Deep convection continues to burst over the center of Barbara this
afternoon, with cold cloud tops near -75 C. However, a dry slot in
the eastern semi-circle looks to have slightly disrupted the
convective organization. Subjective and objective intensity
estimates range from 45-55 kt this cycle. Using a blend of satellite
estimates and the latest imagery the intensity is held at 50 kt for
this advisory.

Barbara is currently within a favorable environment with warm SSTs
and low vertical wind shear. Strengthening is forecast over the next
day or so, and Barbara is forecast to become a hurricane overnight.
After 24 h, the system will be moving over cooler sea surface
temperatures below 26C and into a drier mid-level environment. These
factors will cause the storm to weaken and eventually struggle to
produce convection. Latest model IR simulated satellite imagery
shows the system losing convection by 72 h.  This suggests that
it will become a a post-tropical remnant low by that time and
likely dissipate  by day 5 although that could occur sooner than
currently forecast.

Barbara is moving west-northwestward at 295/10, steered by
a mid-level ridge over Mexico, and this motion should continue over
the next couple of days. The NHC forecast was nudged slightly
rightward and lies just left of the the simple and corrected
consensus aids.  Given the forecast track and wind radii,
tropical-storm-force winds are not expected to affect the
southwestern coast of Mexico. By Tuesday, the track forecast becomes
more complicated given the potential interaction between Barbara and
Cosme. The GFS and ECMWF are on opposite ends of the guidance
envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/2100Z 16.0N 104.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
12H  09/0600Z 16.7N 105.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
24H  09/1800Z 17.8N 107.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
36H  10/0600Z 18.8N 108.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
48H  10/1800Z 19.6N 110.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
60H  11/0600Z 19.7N 111.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
72H  11/1800Z 19.4N 112.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  12/1800Z 19.1N 114.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  13/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly

红豆棒冰冰

SSD 00Z分析升至T3.5

TXPZ24 KNES 090020
TCSENP
A.  02E (BARBARA)
B.  09/0000Z
C.  16.3N
D.  104.3W
E.  THREE/GOES-E
F.  T3.5/3.5
G.  IR/EIR/VIS/GMI
H.  REMARKS...6/10 CURVED BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 3.0. THE MET IS
3.0 BASED ON A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING TREND IN APPARENT INTENSITY OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. THE PT IS 3.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE PT DUE TO BANDING
FEATURES NOT BEING CLEAR CUT. OF NOTE IS THE PRESENCE OF A DEVELOPING
EYE-LIKE FEATURE IN BOTH THE 36.64 AND 89 GHZ 2206Z GMI MW PASSES.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    08/2206Z 16.2N 104.0W GMI
...HOSLEY