墨西哥西南热带风暴“达莉拉”(04E.Dalila)

pocketbox

WTPZ44 KNHC 131437
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Four-E Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042025
900 AM CST Fri Jun 13 2025

Latest satellite imagery depicts that the disturbance south of
Mexico has continued to become better organized this morning.
First-light visible imagery shows that the system has developed a
well-defined low-level center, and infrared imagery shows a large
burst of organized deep convection with cold cloud tops near -80 C.
Thus, the disturbance now meets the requirements to be classified a
tropical cyclone. Subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates
remain around 30 kt with a T2.0 from TAFB. Thus, the intensity is
held at 30 kt, and the system is now Tropical Depression Four-E.

The initial motion remains uncertain given the recent formation of a
well-defined low-level center, but it is estimated at 335/9 kt. A
mid-level ridge is forecast to strengthen and build over Mexico
later today, which will cause a more northwestward motion this
afternoon and evening, followed by a west-northwestward motion later
this weekend. The track guidance is tightly clustered, and the
latest NHC track forecast is near the previous one, which lies near
the simple consensus aids. Along the forecast track, the system
will parallel the coast of southwestern Mexico, remaining offshore.

As the depression continues to become better organized, steady
strengthening is forecast over the next 36-48 h, with the system
over warm sea surface temperatures. However, there is some moderate
easterly vertical wind shear that the system will have to deal with.
As the system took a little longer to consolidate, the latest NHC
intensity forecast is slightly lower, with a peak intensity of 55
kt, which lies near the simple consensus. However, some of the
regional hurricane models continue to show a higher peak. Beyond 48
h, the system will cross into a drier, more stable airmass and over
cooler SSTs which will lead to steady weakening. Global models show
the system struggling to produce convection by 72 h, becoming a
remnant low, and then dissipating by 120 h.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. The outer bands of Tropical Depression Four-E may bring locally
heavy rainfall to the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán, and
Colima through this weekend. Isolated flooding and mudslides,
especially in areas of steep terrain, are possible.

2. The Tropical Depression is forecast to be at tropical storm
strength when it moves near the southwestern coast of Mexico on
Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of
that area.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/1500Z 13.9N 101.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  14/0000Z 14.9N 102.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  14/1200Z 16.0N 104.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
36H  15/0000Z 17.0N 105.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
48H  15/1200Z 17.8N 107.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
60H  16/0000Z 18.1N 109.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
72H  16/1200Z 18.2N 111.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  17/1200Z 18.3N 115.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly

菌菇月亮

现时04E仍较为松散

ygsj24

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 131731
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dalila Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042025
1200 PM CST Fri Jun 13 2025

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM DALILA...

SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 101.8W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Lazaro Cardenas to Playa Perula

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of Lazaro Cardenas to Tecpan De Galeana
* North of Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dalila
was located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 101.8 West.  Dalila
is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h).  A turn
toward the northwest is expected later today, with a turn toward the
west-northwest forecast by Sunday.  On the forecast track, Dalila
is forecast to move parallel to, but offshore of, the southwestern
coast of Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the
next couple of days as the storm moves parallel to the coast
of southwestern Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 120 miles (195 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Dalila can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header
WTPZ44 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with localized amounts
up to 6 inches, are possible across portions of the Mexican states
of Guerrero, Michoacán, and Colima through this weekend. This
rainfall may lead to areas of flooding and mudslides.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Dalila, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area, and tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area on Saturday.

SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Dalila will affect
portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few
days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

ygsj24

832
WTPZ44 KNHC 132032
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Dalila Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042025
300 PM CST Fri Jun 13 2025

Satellite images and recent ASCAT data show that Dalila is a large
tropical storm with its 34-kt wind radii spread out over a broad
area, especially east of the center. The ASCAT passes showed
tropical-storm-force winds occurring very near the coast of southern
Mexico, which are likely aided by the local terrain. The initial
intensity of the storm remains 35 kt based on the aforementioned
ASCAT data and a Dvorak estimate from TAFB. Dalila is the second
earliest fourth named storm in the eastern Pacific basin since
records began in 1949, behind 1956.

Dalila likely will strengthen during the next day or so while it
remains over warm waters and in a low to moderate wind shear
environment. However, rapid intensification is not expected given
the large size of the storm's wind field and the lack of an inner
core. The opportunity for strengthening should end by late Saturday
when Dalila is expected to cross the 26 C SST isotherm. Thereafter,
a combination of cool waters and stable air should cause rapid
weakening, and Dalila is now forecast to become a post-tropical
cyclone by late Sunday. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the
previous one and near the high end of the model guidance.

The storm is still moving north-northwestward at about 12 kt. A
gradual turn to the northwest and then the west is expected over the
next few days as Dalila moves on the south side of a building
mid-level ridge. There is high confidence that the center of the
system should stay off the coast of Mexico, but the northern extent
of the tropical-storm-force winds are expected to brush the
southwestern coast of Mexico tonight and Saturday. The NHC track
forecast is a touch north of the previous one and near the middle of
the guidance envelope.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. The outer bands of Tropical Storm Dalila could bring locally
heavy rainfall to the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán, and
Colima through this weekend. Isolated flooding and mudslides,
especially in areas of steep terrain, are possible.

2. Dalila is expected to produce tropical-storm-force winds across
portions of the warning area tonight and Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/2100Z 14.8N 102.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  14/0600Z 15.7N 103.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
24H  14/1800Z 16.8N 105.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
36H  15/0600Z 17.8N 107.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
48H  15/1800Z 18.4N 108.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
60H  16/0600Z 18.5N 110.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H  16/1800Z 18.5N 112.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  17/1800Z 18.5N 115.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

红豆棒冰冰

SSD 18Z分析升至T2.0

TXPZ26 KNES 131828
TCSENP
A.  04E (DALILA)
B.  13/1800Z
C.  14.1N
D.  101.6W
E.  THREE/GOES-E
F.  T2.0/2.0
G.  IR/EIR/VIS
H.  REMARKS...5/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 2.5. THE MET EQUALS 1.5
AND THE PT EQUALS 2.0. THE FT IS BASED ON THE PT DUE TO THE IRREGULAR
BANDING FEATURES.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...LINER

红豆棒冰冰

稍早前ASCAT风场扫描

ygsj24

455
WTPZ34 KNHC 132343
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dalila Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042025
600 PM CST Fri Jun 13 2025

...DALILA BRINGING AREAS OF HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG WINDS ALONG THE
COAST OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM CST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 102.8W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Lazaro Cardenas to Playa Perula

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of Lazaro Cardenas to Tecpan De Galeana
* North of Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM CST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dalila was
located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 102.8 West. Dalila is
moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through Saturday. A turn
toward the west is forecast by Sunday. On the forecast track, the
center of Dalila is forecast to move parallel to, but offshore of,
the southwestern coast of Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is expected during the next day or so.
Weakening should begin by Sunday.

Dalila is a large system. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward
up to 310 miles (500 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Dalila can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header
WTPZ44 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches are expected across
portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán, and Colima
through Sunday morning, with localized amounts up to 9 inches near
the coast. This rainfall will lead to areas of flooding and
mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain near the coast.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Dalila, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area and are possible within the watch area tonight and Saturday.

SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Dalila will affect
portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few
days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

红豆棒冰冰

SSD 00Z分析升至T2.5

TXPZ26 KNES 140017
TCSENP
A.  04E (DALILA)
B.  14/0000Z
C.  14.9N
D.  102.6W
E.  THREE/GOES-E
F.  T2.5/2.5
G.  IR/EIR/VIS/ATMS
H.  REMARKS...5.5/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 2.5. UPR-LVL OUTFLOW
GOOD ALQDS XCPT SOMEWHAT RESTRICTED NW. MET=2.0 AND PT=2.5. FT BASED ON
PT DUE TO IRREG/PULSING CONVECTION.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    13/1948Z 14.6N 102.1W ATMS
...KONON

ygsj24

040
WTPZ44 KNHC 140255
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Dalila Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042025
900 PM CST Fri Jun 13 2025

The satellite presentation of Dalila has improved a bit this
evening, with the latest images showing an increase in deep
convection around the low-level center. The latest subjective Dvorak
intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were both T2.5/35 knots, while
the objective estimates ranged from 32 to 40 knots. Based on a blend
of these estimates, the initial intensity is held at 35 knots for
this advisory.  

Dalila is now heading toward the northwest, or 315/10 knots. This
general motion is expected to continue during the next day or so as
the system moves along the southern periphery of a building
mid-level ridge over northern Mexico and the southwest U.S. A
gradual turn toward the west is expected Saturday night and Sunday,
as Dalila moves over cooler water and becomes increasingly steered
by the low-level trade wind flow. A westward motion is then forecast
to continue through dissipation on Tuesday, and this may be generous
as Dalila may not survive that long. The latest track forecast has
been nudged slightly south of the previous advisory, in line with
the latest consensus model trends.

There is a limited window for Dalila to strengthen as it will remain
over warm water and within light to moderate easterly shear for
around 24 hours. The forecast calls for some strengthening during
this time, but the peak intensity has been nudged slightly lower to
better align with the latest intensity model trends. Beyond 36
hours, the system will move over much cooler water, and steady
weakening is forecast with Dalila expected to become a post-tropical
remnant low by 60 hours, and possibly sooner than that. The latest
intensity forecast is generally on the high end of the intensity
guidance through 36 hours, then is roughly in the middle of the pack
through storm dissipation.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. The outer bands of Tropical Storm Dalila will bring locally heavy
rainfall to the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán, and Colima
through Sunday morning. Scattered areas of flooding and mudslides
are expected, especially in areas of steep terrain near the coast.

2. Dalila is expected to produce tropical-storm-force winds across
portions of the warning area tonight and Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/0300Z 15.2N 103.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  14/1200Z 16.0N 104.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
24H  15/0000Z 17.1N 106.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
36H  15/1200Z 17.9N 108.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
48H  16/0000Z 18.1N 110.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
60H  16/1200Z 18.1N 111.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  17/0000Z 18.2N 113.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  18/0000Z 18.1N 116.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Jelsema/Reinhart

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：翟丽萍  签发：向纯怡  2025 年 06 月 14 日 10 时
东北太平洋海域热带风暴“达莉拉”生成

时        间:    14日08时（北京时）

海        域:    东北太平洋

命        名:    “达莉拉”，DALILA

中心位置:    西经102.7度, 北纬14.9度

强度等级:    热带风暴

最大风力:    8级，18米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级

中心气压:    1001百帕

参考位置:    墨西哥格雷罗州阿卡普尔科西南方向约345公里

变化过程:    “达莉拉”今天生成

预报结论:    “达莉拉”将以每小时15-20公里的速度向西北方向移动，强度逐渐增强。



图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年6月14日8时00分）