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JTWC：UPGRADED TO MEDIUM
本帖最后由 pocketbox 于 2025-6-22 08:30 编辑
ABPW10 PGTW 220000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/220000Z-220600ZJUN2025//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
21.8N 145.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 146.1E, APPROXIMATELY 303 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). FURTHERMORE,
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 95W IS CURRENTLY IN A MODERATELY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY HINDRANCE TO DEVELOPMENT CURRENTLY IS A TROPICAL
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL POSITIONED WEST OF THE SYSTEM THAT
IS CURRENTLY RESTRICTING OUTFLOW ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT 95W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD
AND DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO DISTANCE ITSELF
FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED TUTT CELL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO MEDIUM.//
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楼主: ygsj24
发表于 2025-6-21 23:03
发表于 2025-6-22 00:02
