小笠原群岛以东2503号热带风暴“木恩”(04W.Mun) - 逐渐北上，趋向日本以东海域

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ABPW10 PGTW 010000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/010000Z-010600ZJUL2025//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
...
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 21.4N
148.2E, APPROXIMATELY 504 NM SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 301600Z AMSR2 89 GHZ IMAGE
DEPICT A POORLY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OBSCURED
BY FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR OFFSET BY WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT)
CELL TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC IS THE MAIN CAUSE OF THE ELEVATED SHEAR
ON THE SYSTEM.  GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT THAT 90W WILL CONTINUE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WITH MARGINAL
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
FORMATION OF A MONSOON DEPRESSION.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(2)//
NNNN

renzhetegong

JMA定位已明显偏向90W

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1010 HPA NEAR 21N 147E NNW SLOWLY.

红豆棒冰冰

GFS 18Z继续预报逐渐北上，强度不高

红豆棒冰冰

ECMWF 18Z系集

红豆棒冰冰

今天早晨ASCAT风场扫描显示东侧有成片25-30kt风旗

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JMA升TD

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ABPW10 PGTW 010600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS 010600Z-020600ZJUL2025//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
...
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
21.4N 148.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 148.3E, APPROXIMATELY 440 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) AND A 010256Z AMSR2 89 GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OBSCURED BY FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY. A RECENT 010005Z ASCAT-C PASS SHOWS TURNING IN THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY WITH 20-25 KTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA
INDICATES FAIRLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10-15
KTS) SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY WARM (29-30 C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT 90W WILL
CONTINUE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WITH SLOW AND GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO
25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
NNNN

Enceladus

ASCAT C UHR 00Z
30KT

Enceladus

GFS 0100Z Main-run(INVEST 90W)
▸ Range: +240Hrs
▸ Step: 24Hrs
▸ Maximun Expected Intensity: 80KT
▸ Plotted by: Enceladus

Enceladus

90W INVEST 250701 0000 21.1N 148.3E WPAC 25 1008

NRL显示升至25KT