2505号热带气旋“百合”(06W.Nari)机构发报专帖

ygsj24

WDPN31 PGTW 112100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 06W (SIX) WARNING NR
004//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 25.2N 140.0E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 606 NM SOUTH OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 13 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS BUILDING
DEEP CONVECTION OVER A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). STRONG (15-20KST) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE
NORTHWEST HAS SLIGHTLY DISLOCATED THE DEEP CONVECTION TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS MODERATE
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND AN OVERALL MOIST ENVIRONMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS
REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. AN 111640Z
NOAA-21 ATMS 88GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REINFORCES THE DISLOCATED NATURE
OF THE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST OF TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06W. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED ANIMATED EIR AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE FIXES LISTED BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: A CONFUSED AND WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN AN ELONGATED RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND A WEAK
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
   PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   RJTD: T1.5 - 25 KTS
   KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 36 KTS AT 111638Z
   CIMSS ADT: 33 KTS AT 111730Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: LOW
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 06W WILL REMAIN IN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DURING
THIS TIME, TS 06W WILL REMAIN SLOW AND QUASI-STATIONARY,
POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN IRREGULAR MOTION. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE NORTHEAST WILL BUILD OVER THE FIRST 36 HOURS OF THE FORECAST,
ALLOWING FOR FASTER MOVEMENT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. BETWEEN TAU
36-48, THE TRACK MOTION WILL BE STEERED NEARLY NORTHWARD FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TROPICAL
UNTIL TAU 48, WHEN TS 06W BEGINS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. A
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO BECOME BAROCLINIC, AND THE
SYSTEM WILL LOSE THE FAVORABLE HEAT SOURCE OF WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST) BETWEEN TAU 48-72. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS
ANTICIPATED TO BE COMPLETED BY TAU 72. TS 06W WILL STRUGGLE TO
INTENSIFY OVER THE FIRST 36 HOURS OF THE FORECAST WHILE IN A
HIGH-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. ONCE SHEAR DECREASES, THE SYSTEM WILL
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 55KTS BY TAU 48. SLIGHT WEAKENING
TO 45KTS IS ANTICIPATED AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL.

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A LARGE SPREAD
AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH GALWEM LYING SIGNIFICANTLY
FAR TO THE WEST OF THE MAIN BULK OF THE JTWC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
MEMBERS. THE COMPLETE TRACK SPREAD BY TAU 72 IS 560NM. THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE REPRESENTS SLOW INTENSIFICATION IN THE EARLY
TERM FORECAST, BUT BEGINS TO SPREAD AFTER TAU 36. THE PEAK
INTENSITY SPREAD IS 20KTS BETWEEN 45-65KTS AT TAU 48.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW//
NNNN

ygsj24

熱帯低気圧 a
2025年07月12日07時15分発表

12日06時の実況
種別        熱帯低気圧
大きさ        -
強さ        -
存在地域        父島の南西約300km
中心位置        北緯25度10分 (25.2度)
東経140度05分 (140.1度)
進行方向、速さ        ほとんど停滞
中心気圧        1002 hPa
中心付近の最大風速        15 m/s (30 kt)
最大瞬間風速        23 m/s (45 kt)

13日06時の予報
種別        台風
強さ        -
存在地域        父島の南西約90km
予報円の中心        北緯26度35分 (26.6度)
東経141度30分 (141.5度)
進行方向、速さ        北東 ゆっくり
中心気圧        1000 hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18 m/s (35 kt)
最大瞬間風速        25 m/s (50 kt)
予報円の半径        130 km (70 NM)

14日03時の予報
種別        台風
強さ        -
存在地域        八丈島の南東約190km
予報円の中心        北緯31度55分 (31.9度)
東経141度20分 (141.3度)
進行方向、速さ        北 25 km/h (14 kt)
中心気圧        996 hPa
中心付近の最大風速        20 m/s (40 kt)
最大瞬間風速        30 m/s (60 kt)
予報円の半径        200 km (110 NM)

15日03時の予報
種別        台風
強さ        -
存在地域        日本の東
予報円の中心        北緯41度30分 (41.5度)
東経142度30分 (142.5度)
進行方向、速さ        北 45 km/h (24 kt)
中心気圧        990 hPa
中心付近の最大風速        23 m/s (45 kt)
最大瞬間風速        35 m/s (65 kt)
予報円の半径        260 km (140 NM)

16日03時の予報
種別        温帯低気圧
強さ        -
存在地域        千島近海
予報円の中心        北緯48度25分 (48.4度)
東経152度05分 (152.1度)
進行方向、速さ        北東 45 km/h (24 kt)
中心気圧        1002 hPa
予報円の半径        390 km (210 NM)

ygsj24

熱帯低気圧 a
2025年07月12日10時10分発表

12日09時の実況
種別        熱帯低気圧
大きさ        -
強さ        -
存在地域        父島の南西約300km
中心位置        北緯24度55分 (24.9度)
東経140度30分 (140.5度)
進行方向、速さ        ほとんど停滞
中心気圧        1002 hPa
中心付近の最大風速        15 m/s (30 kt)
最大瞬間風速        23 m/s (45 kt)

13日09時の予報
種別        台風
強さ        -
存在地域        父島の西南西約60km
予報円の中心        北緯26度50分 (26.8度)
東経141度40分 (141.7度)
進行方向、速さ        北北東 ゆっくり
中心気圧        998 hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18 m/s (35 kt)
最大瞬間風速        25 m/s (50 kt)
予報円の半径        130 km (70 NM)

14日09時の予報
種別        台風
強さ        -
存在地域        八丈島の東北東約80km
予報円の中心        北緯33度30分 (33.5度)
東経140度30分 (140.5度)
進行方向、速さ        北 30 km/h (17 kt)
中心気圧        990 hPa
中心付近の最大風速        23 m/s (45 kt)
最大瞬間風速        35 m/s (65 kt)
予報円の半径        200 km (110 NM)

15日09時の予報
種別        温帯低気圧
強さ        -
存在地域        北海道地方
予報円の中心        北緯44度30分 (44.5度)
東経143度35分 (143.6度)
進行方向、速さ        北 50 km/h (28 kt)
中心気圧        994 hPa
最大風速        20 m/s (40 kt)
最大瞬間風速        30 m/s (60 kt)
予報円の半径        260 km (140 NM)

1. WTPQ30 RJTD 120000
   
2. RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
   
3. REASONING NO. 4 FOR TD LOCATED AT 24.9N 140.5E
   
4. 1.GENERAL COMMENTS
   
5.   A TD IS LOCATED AT 24.9N, 140.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
   
6.   POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
   
7.   POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002HPA AND
   
8.   MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 30KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
   
9.   IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
   
10.   HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
    
11.   MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
    
12.   CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
    
13.   SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
    
14. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
    
15.   THE SYSTEM IS ALMOST STATIONARY ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
    
16.   MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS ARE
    
17.   SCATTERED AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
    
18.   CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
    
19.   DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
    
20.   SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE
    
21.   CSC.
    
22. 3.TRACK FORECAST
    
23.   THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
    
24.   A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
    
25.   GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
    
26.   MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
    
27.   BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
    
28.   FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
    
29.   AGREEMENT.
    
30. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST
    
31.   THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
    
32.   INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
    
33.   GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL
    
34.   TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL BE UPGRADED TO TS INTENSITY BY FT24.
    
35.   THE SYSTEM WILL THEN TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY
    
36.   FT72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE
    
37.   DATA INCLUDING GSM.
    
38. =

复制代码

ygsj24

No.10 Tropical Depression KMA | Issued At: Sat, 12 Jul 2025, 10:30

Date(UTC)	Intensity		Maximum Sustained Wind(m/s)		Central Pressure (hPa)	Position		Moving Direction	Moving Speed(km/h)	Radius of 15 m/s(km) [Exceptional radius]	Radius of 25 m/s(km) [Exceptional radius]	Radius of 70% probability(km)
			m/s	km/h		Lat (N)	Lon (E)
Sat, 12 Jul 2025, 00:00 Analysis	-	TD	15	54	1002	25.1	140.4	ESE	7			-
Sun, 13 Jul 2025, 00:00 Forecast	-	1	19	68	998	27.2	141.5	NNE	11	250 [W 140]		90
Mon, 14 Jul 2025, 00:00 Forecast	-	1	24	86	990	33.9	141.2	N	31	340 [W 220]		130
Tue, 15 Jul 2025, 00:00 Forecast	-	L	21	76	994	44.4	144.3	NNE	50			190

ygsj24

熱帶性低氣壓TD07

現況
2025年07月12日08時
中心位置在北緯 25.0 度，東經 140.5 度
過去移動方向 東南東
過去移動時速 9公里
中心氣壓 1002百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 15 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 23 公尺

預測
預測 6 小時平均移向移速為
北北東 時速 9 公里
預測 07月12日14時
中心位置在北緯 25.4 度，東經 140.8 度
中心氣壓1000百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 15 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 23 公尺
70%機率半徑 40 公里

預測 6-12 小時平均移向移速為
東北東 時速 9 公里
預測 07月12日20時
中心位置在北緯 25.6 度，東經 141.3 度
中心氣壓998百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 18 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 25 公尺
七級風暴風半徑 80 公里
70%機率半徑 80 公里

預測 12-18 小時平均移向移速為
東北 時速 14 公里
預測 07月13日02時
中心位置在北緯 26.2 度，東經 141.8 度
中心氣壓998百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 18 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 25 公尺
七級風暴風半徑 80 公里
70%機率半徑 105 公里

預測 18-24 小時平均移向移速為
北北東 時速 15 公里
預測 07月13日08時
中心位置在北緯 27.0 度，東經 142.0 度
中心氣壓995百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 20 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 28 公尺
七級風暴風半徑 80 公里
70%機率半徑 130 公里

預測 24-36 小時平均移向移速為
北 時速 30 公里
預測 07月13日20時
中心位置在北緯 30.2 度，東經 142.1 度
中心氣壓995百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 20 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 28 公尺
七級風暴風半徑 100 公里
70%機率半徑 160 公里

預測 36-48 小時平均移向移速為
北 時速 33 公里
預測 07月14日08時
中心位置在北緯 33.8 度，東經 141.7 度
中心氣壓988百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 23 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 30 公尺
七級風暴風半徑 120 公里
70%機率半徑 270 公里

預測 48-72 小時平均移向移速為
北 時速 39 公里
預測 07月15日08時
中心位置在北緯 42.2 度，東經 143.0 度
中心氣壓988百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 23 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 30 公尺
七級風暴風半徑 120 公里
70%機率半徑 350 公里

預測 72-96 小時平均移向移速為
東北 時速 42 公里
預測 07月16日08時
中心位置在北緯 48.3 度，東經 152.7 度
中心氣壓1000百帕
70%機率半徑 450 公里

預測 96 小時內變性為溫帶氣旋

ygsj24

WTPN31 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 06W (SIX) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (SIX) WARNING NR 005   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   120000Z --- NEAR 25.2N 140.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 25.2N 140.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   121200Z --- 25.6N 141.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   130000Z --- 27.0N 141.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   131200Z --- 29.9N 142.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 19 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   140000Z --- 33.6N 141.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 24 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   150000Z --- 43.0N 144.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 25.3N 140.7E.
12JUL25. TROPICAL STORM 06W (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 50 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 120000Z IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
120900Z, 121500Z, 122100Z AND 130300Z.//
NNNN

ygsj24

WDPN31 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 06W (SIX) WARNING NR
005//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 25.2N 140.5E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 50 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF IWO TO
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EASTWARD AT 05 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS BUILDING
CONVECTION OVER A PARTIALLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). DEEP CONVECTION IS SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
NORTHWESTERLY STRONG (15-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY REVEALS STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED
ANIMATED MSI REVEALING THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS
ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 120200Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS
THAT REVEALS 35KT WINDS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT WHILE
SUPPLEMENTED BY THE OBJECTIVE AND AGENCY FIXES BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: CURRENTLY IN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT WITH A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND A WEAK
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
   PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   RJTD: T1.5 - 25 KTS
   KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 33 KTS AT 112030Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06W IS IN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST, GENERALLY
TRACKING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. BETWEEN TAU 24-36, THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE EAST WILL BUILD, DRIVING TS 06W NORTHWARD THROUGH TAU
48. AT TAU 48, 06W WILL CURVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ON THE NORTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL
START AT TAU 48 DUE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO
BECOME BAROCLINIC. TS 06W WILL BE FULLY EXTRATROPICAL BY TAU 72,
WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE AND IN COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
THE HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL HINDER INTENSIFICATION DURING THE
FIRST 36 HOURS OF THE FORECAST. AFTER SHEAR DECREASES, TS 06W WILL
PEAK AT 55KTS AT TAU 48. SLIGHT WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM
UNDERGOES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION, REACHING 45KTS AT THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GALWEM AND UKMET LYING TO THE WEST
OF THE CONSENSUS MEAN. JTWC FORECAST TRACK ALIGNS WITH THE BULK OF
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS GUIDANCE. INTENSITY AIDS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH A PEAK INTENSITY BETWEEN 45-65KTS. THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION OF TS 06W IN THE EARLY TERM FORECAST AND THE
WEAKENING AS THE SYSTEM UNDERGOES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH//
NNNN

ygsj24

熱帯低気圧 a
2025年07月12日13時05分発表

12日12時の実況
種別        熱帯低気圧
大きさ        -
強さ        -
存在地域        父島の南南西約290km
中心位置        北緯24度50分 (24.8度)
東経140度50分 (140.8度)
進行方向、速さ        ほとんど停滞
中心気圧        1002 hPa
中心付近の最大風速        15 m/s (30 kt)
最大瞬間風速        23 m/s (45 kt)

13日12時の予報
種別        台風
強さ        -
存在地域        父島の西北西約50km
予報円の中心        北緯27度20分 (27.3度)
東経141度50分 (141.8度)
進行方向、速さ        北北東 15 km/h (7 kt)
中心気圧        998 hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18 m/s (35 kt)
最大瞬間風速        25 m/s (50 kt)
予報円の半径        130 km (70 NM)

14日09時の予報
種別        台風
強さ        -
存在地域        八丈島の東北東約80km
予報円の中心        北緯33度30分 (33.5度)
東経140度30分 (140.5度)
進行方向、速さ        北 30 km/h (17 kt)
中心気圧        990 hPa
中心付近の最大風速        23 m/s (45 kt)
最大瞬間風速        35 m/s (65 kt)
予報円の半径        200 km (110 NM)

15日09時の予報
種別        温帯低気圧
強さ        -
存在地域        北海道地方
予報円の中心        北緯44度30分 (44.5度)
東経143度35分 (143.6度)
進行方向、速さ        北 50 km/h (28 kt)
中心気圧        994 hPa
最大風速        20 m/s (40 kt)
最大瞬間風速        30 m/s (60 kt)
予報円の半径        260 km (140 NM)

ygsj24

熱帯低気圧 a
2025年07月12日16時05分発表

12日15時の実況
種別        熱帯低気圧
大きさ        -
強さ        -
存在地域        父島の南約280km
中心位置        北緯24度40分 (24.7度)
東経141度30分 (141.5度)
進行方向、速さ        東 ゆっくり
中心気圧        1000 hPa
中心付近の最大風速        15 m/s (30 kt)
最大瞬間風速        23 m/s (45 kt)

13日15時の予報
種別        台風
強さ        -
存在地域        父島の北約110km
予報円の中心        北緯28度05分 (28.1度)
東経142度10分 (142.2度)
進行方向、速さ        北 15 km/h (9 kt)
中心気圧        998 hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18 m/s (35 kt)
最大瞬間風速        25 m/s (50 kt)
予報円の半径        110 km (60 NM)

14日15時の予報
種別        台風
強さ        -
存在地域        銚子市の北北東約40km
予報円の中心        北緯36度00分 (36.0度)
東経140度55分 (140.9度)
進行方向、速さ        北 35 km/h (20 kt)
中心気圧        990 hPa
中心付近の最大風速        23 m/s (45 kt)
最大瞬間風速        35 m/s (65 kt)
予報円の半径        165 km (90 NM)

15日15時の予報
種別        温帯低気圧
強さ        -
存在地域        オホーツク海
予報円の中心        北緯45度50分 (45.8度)
東経145度00分 (145.0度)
進行方向、速さ        北北東 50 km/h (26 kt)
中心気圧        998 hPa
最大風速        18 m/s (35 kt)
最大瞬間風速        25 m/s (50 kt)
予報円の半径        210 km (115 NM)

1. WTPQ30 RJTD 120600
   
2. REASONING NO. 5 FOR TD LOCATED AT 24.7N 141.5E
   
3. RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
   
4. 1.GENERAL COMMENTS
   
5.   A TD IS LOCATED AT 24.7N, 141.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
   
6.   POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
   
7.   POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000HPA AND
   
8.   MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 30KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
   
9.   IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
   
10.   HIGH SSTS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND LOW TCHP. THIS HAS CAUSED
    
11.   THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
    
12.   INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
    
13.   ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
    
14. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
    
15.   THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
    
16.   SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS ARE SCATTERED
    
17.   AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
    
18.   ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE
    
19.   SYSTEM. NOAA-21/ATMS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
    
20.   ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
    
21. 3.TRACK FORECAST
    
22.   THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
    
23.   A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
    
24.   GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
    
25.   MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
    
26.   BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
    
27.   FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
    
28.   AGREEMENT.
    
29. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST
    
30.   THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
    
31.   INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE
    
32.   SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL
    
33.   TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL BE UPGRADED TO TS INTENSITY BY FT24.
    
34.   THE SYSTEM WILL THEN TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY
    
35.   FT72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE
    
36.   DATA INCLUDING GSM.
    
37. =

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ygsj24

No.10 Tropical Depression KMA | Issued At: Sat, 12 Jul 2025, 16:30

Date(UTC)	Intensity		Maximum Sustained Wind(m/s)		Central Pressure (hPa)	Position		Moving Direction	Moving Speed(km/h)	Radius of 15 m/s(km) [Exceptional radius]	Radius of 25 m/s(km) [Exceptional radius]	Radius of 70% probability(km)
			m/s	km/h		Lat (N)	Lon (E)
Sat, 12 Jul 2025, 06:00 Analysis	-	TD	15	54	1002	24.8	141.2	ESE	21			-
Sun, 13 Jul 2025, 06:00 Forecast	-	1	19	68	998	28.2	141.9	N	16	270 [W 160]		90
Mon, 14 Jul 2025, 06:00 Forecast	-	1	24	86	990	36.4	141.5	N	38	340 [W 220]		130
Tue, 15 Jul 2025, 06:00 Forecast	-	L	19	68	998	46.1	145.5	NNE	47			190