东太平洋四级飓风“基科”(11E.Kiko) - 环流小巧，西行发展 - NHC:125KT

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WTPZ41 KNHC 011437
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112025
500 AM HST Mon Sep 01 2025

Kiko has intensified overnight and remains a compact storm. A timely
GMI microwave pass revealed a closed cyan ring around the center in
the 37-GHz image. The system’s compact size and improving core
structure suggest that the inner core is consolidating, which often
precedes rapid intensification. Subjective Dvorak intensity
estimates from TAFB are 3.0/45 kt and from SAB are 4.0/64 kt, while
objective estimates have increased into the 40–50 kt range. Given
this range of data and the improving satellite presentation, the
initial intensity is set at 50 kt for this advisory.

Kiko is moving just south of due west, or 265/7 kt, steered by a
mid-level subtropical ridge to the north. This general motion is
expected to continue for the next 36 hours, followed by a more
westward track through about 72 hours. Thereafter, the cyclone
should gradually begin to turn toward the west-northwest as it
crosses into the central Pacific basin between days 4 and 5 due to a
potential weakness in the subtropical ridge far north of the
Hawaiian Islands. While the overall synoptic pattern is consistent,
there remains considerable spread in along-track speed among the
models. The NHC forecast is nearly identical to the previous one and
continues to lean heavily on a blend of the HCCA and EMXI aids,
which are near the faster side of the guidance envelope.

Despite somewhat drier mid-level conditions along its forecast
track, the combination of light vertical wind shear, warm sea
surface temperatures, and Kiko’s small compact core should allow for
strengthening in the short term. Rapid intensification probabilities
from the SHIPS guidance have increased over the past 24 hours, with
around a 30–40 percent chance of a 30-kt increase in the next 24
hours. As a result, the official forecast reflects the potential for
this during the first 24 hours, placing the intensity near the upper
end of the guidance envelope during that period. Kiko’s intensity is
forecast to peak near 85 kt in about 48 hours and then hold steady
through day 5, which is near the middle to upper end of the guidance
envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/1500Z 14.0N 126.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
12H  02/0000Z 13.8N 127.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
24H  02/1200Z 13.6N 128.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
36H  03/0000Z 13.5N 130.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
48H  03/1200Z 13.5N 131.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
60H  04/0000Z 13.6N 133.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
72H  04/1200Z 13.7N 135.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
96H  05/1200Z 14.0N 138.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  06/1200Z 14.8N 141.7W   85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)

ygsj24

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 012040
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112025
1100 AM HST Mon Sep 01 2025

Kiko continues to gradually become better organized on conventional
satellite imagery with increasingly impressive curved banding noted
in 1-minute GOES-18 imagery.  The latest subjective Dvorak estimates
range from 55-65 kt while objective intensity estimates from
UW-CIMSS continue to be in the 45-50 kt range.  Based on a blend of
the data and improving appearance on satellite imagery over the last
few hours, the initial intensity is increased to 55 kt for this
advisory.  

Kiko has been moving toward the west-southwest at a slightly slower
speed, with an estimated motion of 255/6 kt.  A strengthening
subtropical ridge to Kiko's north should cause this general motion
to continue for the next day or so.  After that time, Kiko should
turn back toward the west due to its position due south of the
strongest part of the ridge.  By the end of the forecast period, a
west-northwestward motion is likely as Kiko starts to reach the
southwestern portion of the ridge's influence.  There is very large
along-track spread in the guidance, meaning that there is high
uncertainty in Kiko's forward speed.  The latest guidance has
trended slower.  The NHC forecast is slower and a bit to the north
of the previous forecast, but not as slow as most of the latest
consensus models.  This latest track forecast is fairly close to the
12Z ECMWF model.

Relatively warm ocean temperatures and light wind shear should allow
Kiko to steadily strengthen over the next couple of days.  If Kiko
were to move south of the NHC forecast track, it could encounter
stronger shear in 1-2 days, as the models show stronger upper level
winds south of about 13N latitude.  The other factor that
complicates the intensity forecast is the possibility that some dry
air tries to entrain into the circulation.  The peak forecast
intensity has been increased a bit to show a peak of 95 kt in 60-72
hours.  This is closer to the latest HCCA and high resolution
hurricane models, some of which bring Kiko to major hurricane
intensity.  Late in the forecast period, some slight weakening is
possible due to slightly cooler ocean temperatures and the potential
for slightly drier and more stable air.  The intensity forecast lies
near the upper end of the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/2100Z 13.8N 126.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
12H  02/0600Z 13.7N 127.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
24H  02/1800Z 13.6N 128.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
36H  03/0600Z 13.6N 130.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
48H  03/1800Z 13.6N 131.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
60H  04/0600Z 13.8N 133.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
72H  04/1800Z 13.9N 134.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
96H  05/1800Z 14.3N 138.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  06/1800Z 15.2N 141.6W   85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Hagen

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全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：钟晖子、张增海  签发：董林  2025 年 09 月 02 日 10 时
“基科”向偏西方向移动

时        间:   2日08时（北京时，下同）

海        域:    东北太平洋

命        名:    “基科”，KIKO

中心位置:    西经127.0度，北纬13.8度

强度等级:    热带风暴

最大风力:    10级，28米/秒，相当于我国的强热带风暴级

中心气压:    999百帕

参考位置:    距离墨西哥南下加利福尼亚州圣卢卡斯角西南方向约2000公里

变化过程:    过去24小时，“基科”强度持续增强

预报结论:   “基科”将以每小时10公里左右的速度向西偏南方向移动，强度逐渐加强



图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年9月2日08时00分）

ygsj24

515
WTPZ41 KNHC 020249
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112025
500 PM HST Mon Sep 01 2025

The satellite presentation of Kiko has changed little since the
previous advisory package.  The cyclone appears to be in the process
of establishing a more well-defined inner-core structure, with
glimpses of an eye evident at times in visible satellite images.  
The most recent subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates from
TAFB and SAB were 3.5/55 kt and 4.0/65 kt, respectively, while the
objective estimates from UW-CIMSS have ranged between 45 and 57 kt
during the past several hours.  Taking a blend of these data, the
initial intensity for this advisory has been held at 55 kt.

Kiko is moving just south of due west, or 265 degrees, at 6 kt.  
This general motion is expected to continue during the next several
days as the cyclone is steered by a building subtropical ridge to
its north and northwest.  A turn toward the west-northwest is
forecast by days 4 and 5 as an upper-level trough north of Hawaii
begins to erode the western portion of the subtropical ridge.  It
should be noted that there remains considerable along-track spread
among the global models — nearly 500 n mi by 120 hours — with the
CMC the farthest east, the UKMET the farthest west, and the
GFS/ECMWF solutions falling in between.  The official track forecast
remains closely aligned with the latest multi-model consensus aids
and is slightly north of the previous advisory.

Kiko will remain over warm waters of 27–28C and influenced by mostly
light vertical wind shear through day 5.  The surrounding
environmental mid-level moisture appears to be a limiting factor for
significant intensification, however, remaining between 50 and 60
percent and trending gradually lower through day 5.  Additionally,
the slow-moving nature of Kiko and proximity to cooler waters to
the north of the system may also inhibit significant
intensification.  The latest intensity guidance has trended lower,
and the official forecast reflects this change and has been nudged
down accordingly.  The official intensity forecast remains higher
than most of the intensity guidance, and is most closely aligned
with a blend of the HCCA/FSSE intensity consensus aids and the
regional hurricane models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/0300Z 13.8N 127.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
12H  02/1200Z 13.8N 128.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
24H  03/0000Z 13.8N 129.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
36H  03/1200Z 13.8N 130.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
48H  04/0000Z 13.9N 131.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
60H  04/1200Z 14.0N 133.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
72H  05/0000Z 14.2N 134.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
96H  06/0000Z 14.6N 137.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  07/0000Z 15.5N 141.0W   80 KT  90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)

菜园子

FNV3 00Z

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：钟晖子、张增海  签发：董林  2025 年 09 月 02 日 18 时
“基科”向偏西方向移动

时        间:   2日14时（北京时，下同）

海        域:    东北太平洋

命        名:    “基科”，KIKO

中心位置:    西经127.6度，北纬13.8度

强度等级:    热带风暴

最大风力:    11级，31米/秒，相当于我国的强热带风暴级

中心气压:    993百帕

参考位置:    距离墨西哥南下加利福尼亚州圣卢卡斯角西南方向约2100公里

变化过程:    过去24小时，“基科”强度持续增强

预报结论:   “基科”将以每小时10公里左右的速度向西移动，强度逐渐加强



图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年9月2日14时00分）

莎莎

西北太平洋看不下去..來看東北太平洋

基科看了底層有發展建構的跡象..

上看Cat.2 的強度 . 遠洋的西行後北上颶風

ygsj24

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 020852
TCDEP1

Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112025
1100 PM HST Mon Sep 01 2025

The satellite presentation of Kiko has improved since the previous
advisory, with what appears to be a developing inner-core and hints
of an eye evident at times in infrared satellite images.  The most
recent subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB and
SAB were both 4.0/65 kt. The objective estimates from UW-CIMSS have
ranged between 53 and 71 kt during the past several hours, and have
been trending upwards.  Therefore, the initial intensity for this
advisory has been raised to 65 kt, making Kiko a category 1
hurricane.

Kiko is moving due west, or 270 degrees, at 6 kt.  This general
motion is expected to continue during the next several days as the
cyclone is steered by a building subtropical ridge to its north and
northwest.  A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast by days 4
and 5 as an upper-level trough north of Hawaii begins to erode the
western portion of the subtropical ridge.  It should be noted that
there remains considerable along-track spread among the global
models, although the GFS and ECMWF day 5 positions have come into
much better agreement since the previous model cycle.  The official
track forecast remains in good agreement with the latest multi-model
consensus aids and is very close to the previous advisory through 60
hours, then slightly to the north of the previous track forecast
from day 3 onward.

Kiko will remain over warm waters of 27–28C and influenced by mostly
light vertical wind shear through day 4.  The surrounding
environmental mid-level moisture appears to be a somewhat limiting
factor for significant intensification, however, remaining between
50 and 60 percent through day 3, then trending below 50 percent by
days 4 and 5.  The latest intensity guidance has trended
significantly higher from the previous model cycle, and the official
forecast reflects this change and has been nudged upward
accordingly.  The official intensity forecast remains on the higher
end of the intensity guidance, and is most closely aligned with the
FSSE intensity consensus aid.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/0900Z 13.8N 127.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
12H  02/1800Z 13.8N 128.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
24H  03/0600Z 13.8N 129.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
36H  03/1800Z 13.8N 130.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
48H  04/0600Z 13.8N 131.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
60H  04/1800Z 14.0N 133.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
72H  05/0600Z 14.2N 134.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
96H  06/0600Z 15.0N 137.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  07/0600Z 16.0N 140.4W   80 KT  90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)

觀雲趣

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov ... storm=EP112025_KIKO


早10的SAR

pocketbox

WTPZ41 KNHC 021439
TCDEP1

Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112025
500 AM HST Tue Sep 02 2025

Over the past 6 hours, Kiko's eye has become apparent on nighttime
visible imagery, and at times it has also showed up in the infrared
imagery.  The small hurricane is clearly intensifying.  The latest
subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB range from 77-90 kt,
while the UW-CIMSS objective estimates have been running in the
60-74 kt range.  The initial intensity estimate of 75 kt represents
an average of these estimates.

Kiko continues moving slowly westward, or 270 degrees at 5 kt. The
main steering feature continues to be the subtropical ridge located
to the north of Kiko.  A slow westward motion should continue for
the next couple of days.  A turn toward the west-northwest is
forecast by days 3 and 4 as an upper-level trough north of Hawaii
begins to erode the western portion of the subtropical ridge.  There
remains above normal along-track spread in the model suite, but not
as much spread as yesterday, and the day 5 positions of the GFS and
ECMWF are in fairly good agreement.  The official day 5 position is
relatively close to an average of those models.  Only minor
adjustments have been made to the official forecast, which lies
close to the TVCE consensus.

Through the next 48 h, Kiko should remain over sea-surface
temperatures of 27-28C, with light to moderate easterly wind shear
of 10-15 kt.  The environmental air is a bit dry and stable, and
this might prevent rapid intensification.  However, steady
strengthening still appears likely over the next day or two.  By day
4, Kiko will reach somewhat cooler water temperatures as it moves
into a drier environment.  The new NHC forecast shows a slightly
higher peak intensity of 100 kt, and is near the high end of the
intensity guidance suite through day 3.  Some weakening is likely in
4-5 days when Kiko reaches the cooler water and drier air, but the
official forecast still maintains Kiko at hurricane strength through
day 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/1500Z 13.8N 128.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
12H  03/0000Z 13.8N 129.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
24H  03/1200Z 13.8N 130.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
36H  04/0000Z 13.8N 131.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
48H  04/1200Z 13.9N 132.6W  100 KT 115 MPH
60H  05/0000Z 14.1N 134.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
72H  05/1200Z 14.4N 135.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
96H  06/1200Z 15.3N 138.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  07/1200Z 16.4N 141.6W   80 KT  90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Hagen