LOW - 印度以西低压AS 03(92A) - 16.0N 67.3E

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Ragasa

ABIO10 PGTW 251900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/REISSUED/251900Z-261800ZOCT2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/250751ZOCT2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
17.1N 71.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 66.8E, APPROXIMATELY 397 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
(EIR) DEPICTS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (5-10 KTS), MODERATE WESTWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 C). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS DEPICT
A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT. ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOW
LESS OF A SIGNAL OF DEVELOPMENT THAN THE PREVIOUS RUNS BUT STILL
DEPICTS EVENTUAL GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
10.7N 89.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 88.0E, APPROXIMATELY 459 NM EAST
OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A
BETTER DEFINED AND CONSOLIDATED LLCC EMBEDDED WITHIN A TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN INDIA TO THE ANDAMAN ISLAND
CHAIN. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE WESTWARD AND EQUATORWARD UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15 KTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
MODELS SHOW 94B CONSOLIDATING OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WHILE TRACKING
GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
996 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 25OCT25 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (CHENGE) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 7.8S 51.5E, APPROXIMATELY 706 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO,
MADAGASCAR, AND HAD TRACKED WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35
KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 250900) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
7.5S 76.1E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: DISSIPATED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1).//
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ygsj24

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