|
|
楼主 |
发表于 2025-10-28 04:25
|
显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 Ragasa 于 2025-10-28 06:46 编辑
WTIO31 PGTW 272100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (MONTHA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (MONTHA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z --- NEAR 14.2N 83.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2N 83.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 15.4N 82.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 16.7N 82.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 18.1N 81.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
272100Z POSITION NEAR 14.5N 83.3E.
27OCT25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (MONTHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 576 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 271800Z
IS 995 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 280300Z, 280900Z, 281500Z AND 282100Z.//
NNNN
- WDIO31 PGTW 272100
- MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
- SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (MONTHA) WARNING
- NR 006//
- RMKS/
- 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
- 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
- SUMMARY:
- INITIAL POSITION: 14.2N 83.5E
- INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
- GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 576 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA
- MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KTS
- SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET
- SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
- ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
- PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
- PERSISTENT CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE WEST BY 30-35 KTS OF EASTERLY
- VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). DESPITE THE HIGH VWS, TROPICAL CYCLONE
- (TC) 03B HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, FUELED BY
- WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT. A
- 271430Z METOP-B ASCAT BULLSEYE IMAGE REVEALS A SWATH OF 45KTS UNDER
- THE CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
- PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED 271430Z
- ASCAT DATA, SUPPORTED BY THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC IN ANIMATED EIR.
- THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
- BASED ON THE 1430Z ASCAT DATA.
- INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: 271430Z METOP-B ASCAT DATA
- CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
- NORTHEAST
- AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
- PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
- CIMSS ADT: 43 KTS AT 271800Z
- CIMSS AIDT: 36 KTS AT 271800Z
- CIMSS D-MINT: 36 KTS AT 271648Z
- CIMSS D-PRINT: 41 KTS AT 271800Z
- FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
- VWS: 30+ KTS
- SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
- OUTFLOW: WEAK EQUATORWARD
- OTHER FACTORS: WEAK MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
- ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
- INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
- INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
- INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH
- 3. FORECAST REASONING.
- SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
- THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
- FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 03B (MONTHA) WILL MAINTAIN A NORTH-
- NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT
- REMAINS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO ITS NORTHEAST.
- LANDFALL IS FORECAST TO OCCUR AROUND TAU 24, SOUTHWEST OF
- VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
- UNFAVORABLE AS 03B APPROACHES LAND, WITH VWS REMAINING ABOVE 30KTS
- AND DRY AIR ALREADY BEGINNING TO ENTRAIN ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN
- PERIPHERY OF THE STORM. UNDETERRED BY THE DETERIORATING ENVIRONMENTAL
- CONDITIONS, 03B WILL MAINTAIN AN INTENSITY OF 45 KTS THROUGH
- LANDFALL. FOLLOWING LANDFALL, MONTHA WILL STEADILY WEAKEN UNTIL
- DISSIPATION OVER LAND AROUND TAU 36.
- MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG
- AGREEMENT THAT 03B WILL MAINTAIN A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE
- DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, SUPPORTING THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST
- WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED IN
- CONCURRENCE WITH THE BULK OF INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS AND THE MULTI-MODEL
- TRACK CONSENSUS. INTENSITY AIDS ARE ALSO IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT
- 03B WILL REMAIN AT AROUND 45 KTS THROUGH TAU 12, THEN WEAKEN
- STEADILY ONCE IT MAKES LANDFALL PRIOR TO TAU 24. AS A RESULT, THE
- JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
- TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
- INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH//
- NNNN
|
本帖子中包含更多资源
您需要 登录 才可以下载或查看，没有账号？立即注册
×
|
楼主: Ragasa
发表于 2025-10-27 11:25
