菲律宾以东2525号强热带风暴“海鸥”(31W.Kalmaegi) - 数值支持发展

Enceladus

98W INVEST 251101 0000 9.4N 139.0E WPAC 25 1007

离升格不远了

fy6

ABPW10 PGTW 010600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/010600Z-020600ZNOV2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/010151ZNOV2025//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
9.4N 138.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.4N 139.0E, APPROXIMATELY 55 NM EAST
OF YAP. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A CONSOLIDATING LLCC
WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A 010413Z 89
GHZ GWI AMSR2 MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO DEPICTS CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
DEPICTS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH DUAL CHANNEL
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 5-10 KTS, AND WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 29-30 C. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AS WELL AS THE CONSOLIDATION OF THE SYSTEM
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW
010200) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
11.8N 147.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 147.7E, APPROXIMATELY 188 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A
PARTIALLY OBSCURED LLCC WITH LOCALIZED BURSTS OF CONVECTION.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITH WEAK UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, MODERATE WIND SHEAR OF 15-20 KTS, AND
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 29-30 C. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON THE
SLOW CONSOLIDATION OF THE SYSTEM AS WELL AS ITS GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK, THOUGH GFS DEPICTS THE SYSTEM FORMING EARLIER THAN THE OTHER
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//

fy6

TPPN10 PGTW 010606
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98W (N OF YAP)
B. 01/0530Z
C. 9.97N
D. 138.11E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T1.5/1.5 STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVTN WRAPS .25 ON
LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING DT OF 1.5. MET YIELDS 1.0. PT OF 1.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
01/0015Z 9.35N 138.60E MMHS
01/0413Z 9.53N 138.67E AMS2
DARLOW

fy6

WTPQ30 RJTD 010600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 2 FOR TD LOCATED AT 9.9N 138.4E
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
A TD IS LOCATED AT 9.9N, 138.4E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS POOR BECAUSE THE CSC IS OBSCURE. CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1004HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER
ARE 30KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS
AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE LIMITED FIRMNESS OF ITS
STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST
SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE WEST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MOVE WESTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE PHILIPPINES BY
FT96. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL BE UPGRADED TO TS INTENSITY BY FT24. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.=

fy6

TPPN10 PGTW 010913
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 31W (NW OF YAP)
B. 01/0830Z
C. 9.99N
D. 137.82E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T2.0/2.0 STT: D1.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 44A/PBO LARGE CDO/ANMTN. CNVTN WRAPS .40 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDING DT OF 2.0. MET HELD AT 1.0. PT OF 2.5. DBO DT.
CONSTRAINTS BROKEN DUE TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
01/0413Z 9.53N 138.67E AMS2
DARLOW

Ck.

挺好的

Enceladus

Ck. 发表于 2025-11-1 18:44
挺好的

今天发展看着挺平稳
看看晚间风场能不能支持热带风暴强度

無能物理學家

香港天文台路徑概率預測（11月1日更新）

Enceladus

eoj329

PGTW入夜時僅T2.0

TPPN10 PGTW 011210

A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 31W (NW OF YAP)

B. 01/1130Z

C. 10.32N

D. 137.16E

E. FIVE/GK2A

F. T2.0/2.0  STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 71A/PBO XTRP/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .30 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.0. MET YIELDS 1.0. PT YIELDS 1.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


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