MEDIUM - 南海南部热带低压“森亚尔”(BOB 08/04B.Senyar) - 罕见位置成旋，26日登陆苏门答腊岛，折返东行进入南海再发展 - JMA:GW

pocketbox

[code][/code]

ygsj24

WTIO31 PGTW 260900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (SENYAR) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (SENYAR) WARNING NR 004   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   260600Z --- NEAR 3.9N 98.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 3.9N 98.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z --- 3.7N 98.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   270600Z --- 3.7N 99.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   271800Z --- 4.1N 99.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   280600Z --- 4.3N 100.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
260900Z POSITION NEAR 3.8N 98.3E.
26NOV25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (SENYAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 939
NM SOUTHWEST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
260600Z IS 999 MB. NEXT WARNINGS AT 261500Z, 262100Z, 270300Z AND
270900Z.//
NNNN

1. WDIO31 PGTW 260900
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (SENYAR) WARNING NR
   
4. 004//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 3.9N 98.2E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 939 NM SOUTHWEST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
    
18. CYCLONE 04B WITH PERSISTENT BURSTS OF CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN
    
19. PERIPHERY OF A SMALL LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER JUST OVER LAND
    
20. WITHIN NORTHERN SUMATRA. ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY REVEALED THE SYSTEM
    
21. HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD, ALONG THE COAST RATHER THAN FURTHER
    
22. INLAND. THIS SOUTHWARD TRACK IS LIKELY DUE TO DEFLECTION FROM THE
    
23. MOUNTAINS TO THE WEST OF 04B. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
    
24. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SMALL LLCC IN ANIMATED RADAR
    
25. IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH LOW
    
26. CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE T2.5 ESTIMATE FROM DEMS AND GENERAL
    
27. WEAKENING TREND OVER LAND.
    
28. 
    
29. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
    
30. 
    
31. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: STEERED PRIMARILY BY THE LOW TO
    
32. MID-LEVEL STRONG WESTERLY INFLUENCE TO THE SOUTH OF THE VORTEX.
    
33. 
    
34. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
35.    PGTW: NO CURRENT ESTIMATE
    
36.    DEMS: T2.5 - 35 KTS
    
37.    CIMSS D-MINT: 48 KTS AT 260651Z
    
38.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 44 KTS AT 260700Z
    
39. 
    
40. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
    
41.    VWS: 20-25 KTS
    
42.    SST: OVER LAND
    
43.    OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD
    
44.    OTHER FACTORS: LAND INTERACTION
    
45. 
    
46. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
47.    INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
    
48.    INITIAL INTENSITY: LOW
    
49.    INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
    
50. 
    
51. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
52. 
    
53. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THE FORECAST IS EXTENDED TO 48 HOURS,
    
54. NOW CALLING FOR BRIEF INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THE MALACCA STRAIT
    
55. BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF MALAYSIA
    
56. 
    
57. FORECAST DISCUSSION: 33W IS FORECAST TO MAKE A TURN EASTWARD AS THE
    
58. LOW TO MID-LEVEL WESTERLY STEERING INFLUENCE TAKES THE SYSTEM BACK
    
59. OVER THE MALACCA STRAIT. A LANDFALL ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF
    
60. MALAYSIA IS THEN FORECAST TO OCCUR AROUND TAU 48. THIS FORECAST IS
    
61. PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE AND A COMPLETE DISSIPATION OVER LAND IS
    
62. STILL A POSSIBILITY. 04B IS FORECAST TO KEEP A DISTANCE FROM THE
    
63. MOST MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF NORTHERN SUMATRA, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM
    
64. TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, THE MORE
    
65. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT BACK OVER WATER IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY 04B
    
66. AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST. THE SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY
    
67. WEAKEN AS IT MAKES A FINAL LANDFALL OVER MALAYSIA.
    
68. 
    
69. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN
    
70. POOR AGREEMENT, BUT GENERALLY AGREE ON AN EASTWARD TRACK TO VARYING
    
71. DEGREES. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSER TO THE GFS
    
72. ENSEMBLE MEAN WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. HAFS-A, HWRF, AND COAMPS-TC (GFS
    
73. BASED) MODELS ALL ACTUALLY DEPICT A SIMILAR TRACK BACK OVER WATER,
    
74. AND SHOW REINTENSIFICATION TO AROUND 40 KTS AT TAU 36. THE JTWC
    
75. INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE HAFS-A AND HWRF MODELS WITH LOW
    
76. CONFIDENCE.
    
77. 
    
78. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
79.    TRACK 00-72 HR: LOW
    
80.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: LOW//
    
81. NNNN

复制代码

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：徐润杰 曹越男  签发：张 玲  2025 年 11 月 26 日 18 时
气旋风暴“森亚尔”生成

时  间: 26日14时（北京时）

海  域: 北印度洋

命  名: “森亚尔”，SENYAR

中心位置:  南纬5.0度，东经97.3度

强度等级:  气旋风暴

最大风力: 8级，20米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级

中心气压: 999百帕

参考位置: 距离马来西亚吉隆坡西北方向约580公里

变化过程: “森亚尔”于今天上午生成

预报结论: “森亚尔”将以每小时10公里左右的速度向偏西方向移动，强度变化不大



图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年11月26日14时00分）

---

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：徐润杰 曹越男  签发：张 玲  2025 年 11 月 26 日 18 时
气旋风暴“森亚尔”生成

时  间: 26日14时（北京时）

海  域: 北印度洋

命  名: “森亚尔”，SENYAR

中心位置:  北纬3.9度，东经98.2度

强度等级:  气旋风暴

最大风力: 8级，18米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级

中心气压: 998百帕

参考位置: 距离马来西亚吉隆坡西北方向约580公里

变化过程: “森亚尔”于今天上午生成

预报结论: “森亚尔”将以每小时10公里左右的速度向偏西方向移动，强度变化不大



图1  卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年11月26日14时00分）



图2 孟加拉湾气旋风暴“森亚尔”未来48小时路径预报图
[quote][/quote]

pocketbox

[code][/code]

202019天鹅

pocketbox

WTIO31 PGTW 261500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (SENYAR) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (SENYAR) WARNING NR 005   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   261200Z --- NEAR 3.7N 98.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 3.7N 98.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   270000Z --- 3.7N 99.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   271200Z --- 3.8N 99.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   280000Z --- 4.0N 100.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   281200Z --- 4.2N 101.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
261500Z POSITION NEAR 3.7N 98.7E.
26NOV25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (SENYAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 643
NM SOUTHWEST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE AT 261200Z IS 1003 MB. NEXT WARNINGS AT 262100Z, 270300Z,
270900Z AND 271500Z.//
NNNN

1. WDIO31 PGTW 261500
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (SENYAR) WARNING
   
4. NR
   
5. 005//
   
6. RMKS/
   
7. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
8. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
9. 
   
10. SUMMARY:
    
11.    INITIAL POSITION: 3.7N 98.6E
    
12.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
    
13.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 643 NM SOUTHWEST OF HO CHI MINH CITY,
    
14. VIETNAM
    
15.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KTS
    
16.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET
    
17. 
    
18. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
19. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
    
20. CYCLONE 04B (SENYAR) WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION RIGHT ALONG THE
    
21. COAST OF SUMATRA, OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
    
22. (LLCC). ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL LLCC STRADDLING THE
    
23. COAST BUT HAS LOST SOME DEFINITION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE
    
24. INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
    
25. ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS
    
26. ASSESSED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED PRIMARILY ON PERSISTENCE, THOUGH
    
27. CIMSS OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES SUGGEST A SLIGHTLY HIGHER INTENSITY.
    
28. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 04B IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE
    
29. ENVIRONMENT CHARCTERIZED BY MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT,
    
30. MODERATE (15-20 KTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND TERRAIN
    
31. INTERACTION.
    
32. 
    
33. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
    
34. 
    
35. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: STEERED PRIMARILY BY THE LOW TO
    
36. MID-LEVEL STRONG WESTERLY INFLUENCE TO THE SOUTH OF THE VORTEX.
    
37. 
    
38. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
39.    PGTW: NO CURRENT ESTIMATE
    
40.    CIMSS D-MINT: 37 KTS AT 261109Z
    
41.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 41 KTS AT 261200Z
    
42. 
    
43. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
    
44.    VWS: 15-20 KTS
    
45.    SST: OVER LAND
    
46.    OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD
    
47.    OTHER FACTORS: LAND INTERACTION
    
48. 
    
49. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
50.    INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
    
51.    INITIAL INTENSITY: LOW
    
52.    INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
    
53. 
    
54. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
55. 
    
56. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
57. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
58. 
    
59. FORECAST DISCUSSION: 04B IS FORECAST TO MAKE A TURN EASTWARD AS THE
    
60. LOW TO MID-LEVEL WESTERLY STEERING INFLUENCE TAKES THE SYSTEM BACK
    
61. OVER THE MALACCA STRAIT. A LANDFALL ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF
    
62. MALAYSIA IS THEN FORECAST TO OCCUR AROUND TAU 48. THIS FORECAST IS
    
63. PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE AND A COMPLETE DISSIPATION OVER LAND IN
    
64. SUMATRA IS STILL A POSSIBILITY. IF THE SYSTEM IS UNABLE TO KEEP A
    
65. SOLID STRUCTURE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, IT MAY NOT HAVE A CHANCE
    
66. FOR ANY REDEVELOPMENT. 04B IS FORECAST TO KEEP A DISTANCE FROM THE
    
67. MOST MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF NORTHERN SUMATRA, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM
    
68. TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, THE MORE
    
69. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT BACK OVER WATER IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY 04B
    
70. AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST. THE SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY
    
71. WEAKEN AS IT MAKES A FINAL LANDFALL OVER MALAYSIA.
    
72. 
    
73. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN POOR
    
74. AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER, GFS, HWRF,
    
75. HAFS-A, AND COAMPS-TC ALL TAKE THE SYSTEM EASTWARD BACK OVER THE
    
76. STRAIT. MANY GLOBAL MODELS LOSE THE VORTEX THOUGH, AND OVERALL
    
77. CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS VERY LOW. THE MESOSCALE
    
78. MODELS MENTIONED EARLIER ALL GENERALLY AGREE ON REINTENSIFICAITON
    
79. TO 40 KTS AT TAU 36 BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER LAND AFTERWARD. THE
    
80. JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
    
81. CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF AN EARLY
    
82. DISSIPATION.
    
83. 
    
84. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
85.    TRACK 00-72 HR: LOW
    
86.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: LOW//
    
87. NNNN

复制代码

pocketbox

[code][/code]

桑美和伊欧凯

pocketbox 发表于 2025-11-26 22:25
WTIO31 PGTW 261500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B ...

有成为第28号台风的可能性，100.1E还能40KT，有点厉害

Ragasa

WTIO31 PGTW 262100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (SENYAR) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (SENYAR) WARNING NR 006   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   261800Z --- NEAR 3.6N 99.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 095 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 3.6N 99.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   270600Z --- 3.5N 100.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   271800Z --- 3.5N 101.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   280600Z --- 3.5N 102.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
262100Z POSITION NEAR 3.6N 100.0E. 26NOV25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B
(SENYAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 894 NM SOUTHWEST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM,
HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 261800Z IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 261800Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270300Z, 270900Z,
271500Z AND 272100Z.//
NNNN

1. WDIO31 PGTW 262100
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (SENYAR) WARNING NR
   
4. 006//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 3.6N 99.9E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 894 NM SOUTHWEST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EASTWARD AT 13 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 8 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RECENT
    
18. FLARE-UP OF CENTRAL CONVECTION LINKED TO AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL
    
19. CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04B (SENYAR). THE
    
20. INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON
    
21. EXTRAPOLATION FROM A 261510Z METOP-C WIND AMBIGUITIES PRODUCT. THE
    
22. INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KTS IS ALSO ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
    
23. BASED ON A 261512Z METOP-C ASCAT WIND SPEED PRODUCT SHOWING POORLY
    
24. ORGANIZED CIRCULATION WITH 30 KT MAXIMUM WINDS, LOCATED
    
25. UNDERNEATH STRONG CONVECTION, RESULTING IN LIKELY RAIN
    
26. CONTAMINATION. ADDITIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINAL
    
27. ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST),
    
28. GOOD WESTWARD OUTFLOW, OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS)
    
29. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
    
30. 
    
31. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
    
32. RADII).
    
33. 
    
34. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WEAK INFLUENCE FROM A PREDOMINANTLY
    
35. WESTERLY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM
    
36. 
    
37. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
38.    PGTW: NO CURRENT ESTIMATE
    
39.    CIMSS ADT: 39 KTS AT 261730Z
    
40.    CIMSS AIDT: 32 KTS AT 261730Z
    
41.    CIMSS D-MINT: 32 KTS AT 261839Z
    
42.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 38 KTS AT 261830Z
    
43. 
    
44. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
    
45.    VWS: 20-25 KTS
    
46.    SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
    
47.    OUTFLOW: MODERATE WESTWARD
    
48. 
    
49. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
50.    INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
    
51.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
52.    INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE
    
53. 
    
54. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
55. 
    
56. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
57. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
58. 
    
59. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC SENYAR IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD AND
    
60. CROSS INTO THE WESTERN PACIFIC AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY WITHIN THE NEXT
    
61. FEW HOURS. SIGNIFICANT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
    
62. INCREASED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, WHILE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENTAL
    
63. CONDITIONS LEAVE A WINDOW FOR SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION UP TO 35 KTS. AT
    
64. THE SAME TIME, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STRUGGLE WITH CONSOLIDATION
    
65. DUE TO MODERATE TO HIGH VWS, AS WELL AS FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF LAND
    
66. INTERACTION AS IT APPROACHES THE WESTERN COAST OF MALAYSIA. LANDFALL
    
67. IS EXPECTED NEAR TAU 24, WITH FULL DISSIPATION PRIOR OR AT TAU 36.
    
68. 
    
69. MODEL DISCUSSION: AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE, BOTH IN REGARD TO TRACK
    
70. AND INTENSITY, IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL JTWC
    
71. FORECAST IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE ONLY OUTLIER IN
    
72. REGARD TO MAXIMUM WINDS IS COAMPS-TC, WHICH PREDICTS A SIGNIFICANT
    
73. INTENSIFICATION (PEAK OF 50-55 KTS) EXTENDING BEYOND TAU 36. IF THE
    
74. SYSTEM MAINTAINS OVER WATER FOR LONGER THAN EXPECTED, INTENSIFICATION
    
75. BEYOND 35 KTS IS POSSIBLE, HOWEVER CONSIDERING THE ENVIRONMENTAL
    
76. PARAMETERS, AS WELL AS LACK OF WELL-DEVELOPED STRUCTURE THAT IS THE
    
77. LESS LIKELY SCENARIO. AVAILABLE TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS STRONG AGREEMENT
    
78. ON EASTWARD PROPAGATION AND LANDFALL AROUND TAU 24, WHICH WILL RESULT
    
79. IN WEAKENING AND EVENTUAL DISSIPATION SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
    
80. 
    
81. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
82.    TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
    
83.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM//
    
84. NNNN

复制代码

pocketbox

[code][/code]