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本帖最后由 pocketbox 于 2025-12-18 22:50 编辑
WTXS32 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (NINE) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (NINE) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 12.4S 110.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.4S 110.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 12.5S 109.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 12.7S 108.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 13.0S 107.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 13.5S 106.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 13.8S 104.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 13.7S 102.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 13.0S 101.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 12.4S 110.0E.
18DEC25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (NINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 637
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 21812Z IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
182100Z, 190300Z, 190900Z AND 191500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (BAKUNG) FINAL WARNING (WTXS31 PGTW).//
NNNN
- WDPN32 PGTW 181200
- MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
- SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (NINE)
- WARNING NR 002//
- RMKS/
- 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
- 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
- SUMMARY:
- INITIAL POSITION: 12.4S 110.1E
- INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
- GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 637 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA
- MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KTS
- SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 14 FEET
- SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
- ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A MOSTLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF AN AREA OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO THE CONTINUED PRESSURE OF MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR. AN 180906Z SSMIS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALED A SMALL AND EXPOSED LLCC POSITIONED TO THE EAST OF AN AREA OF ELONGATED (EAST-WEST) DEEP CONVECTION. EXTRAPOLATION OF THE MICROWAVE IMAGE, COMBINED WITH THE PARTIALLY VISIBLE LLCC IN THE EIR, PROVIDED HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, BASED ON T2.5 INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND ABOM, AS WELL AS THE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES NOTED BELOW. THE ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO BE MARGINAL AT BEST, WITH MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR, LIMITED AND WEAK RADIAL OUTFLOW, DRY MID-LEVEL AIR ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK AND WARM SSTS.
- INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE.
- CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) OVER NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA.
- AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
- PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
- APRF: T2.5 - 35 KTS
- CIMSS ADT: 35 KTS AT 181200Z
- CIMSS AIDT: 33 KTS AT 181200Z
- CIMSS DPRINT: 39 KTS AT 181330Z
- CIMSS DMINT: 37 KTS AT 181027Z
- FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
- VWS: 20-25 KTS
- SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
- OUTFLOW: WEAK RADIAL
- ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
- INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
- INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
- INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
- 3. FORECAST REASONING.
- SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
- FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (NINE) HAS TURNED TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS BASED ON THE BEST TRACK POSITIONS. A HOT-OFF-THE-PRESSES ASCAT PASS COMING IN AT THIS MOMENT INDICATES A CENTER NEAR 12.2S 109.7E OR JUST A BIT NORTHWEST OF THE 1200Z INITIAL POSITION. WE WILL GO BACK AND ADJUST THAT AFTER THE FACT. WITH THIS NEW DATA, IT APPEARS THE LLCC HAS TRACKED WESTWARD OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE STR OVER NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA, AS ANALYZED BY THE ECMWF. THOUGH RECENT COMMUNICATIONS ISSUES AT JTWC HAVE RESULTED IN A LIMITED SET OF MODEL DATA FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE, THERE IS NO MAJOR SHIFT IN THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION AND THIS FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE LAST, EXCEPT FOR A SLOWER TRACK SPEED AFTER TAU 72 AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, DUE TO THE EXTREMELY LIMITED GUIDANCE AVAILABLE, THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE JTWC FORECAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY FOR 24 TO 36 HOURS AND MAY IN FACT WEAKEN BELOW THE 35 KNOT THRESHOLD DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, AS MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR AND DRY AIR PERSIST AND HINDER DEVELOPMENT. AFTER TAU 36, SHEAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE, AND THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MOISTEN, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
- MODEL DISCUSSION: AS MENTIONED, DUE TO A COMMUNICATIONS OUTAGE, THERE IS VERY LIMITED MODEL GUIDANCE CURRENTLY AVAILABLE. HOWEVER, ANALYSIS OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN REVEALS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. HOWEVER, WHAT LIMITED GUIDANCE IS AVAILABLE (GFS, GEFS, INTERPOLATED ECMWF AND GALWEM) DOES HINT AT SOME POSSIBLE CHANGES, WITH THE GFS AND GEFS BOTH SLOWING THE SYSTEM DOWN AFTER TAU 48 AND TURNING IT EQUATORWARD WHILE THE OTHER MODELS KEEP UP A STEADY WESTWARD TRACK. THE JTWC FORECAST IS HEDGED BACK A BIT, TRENDING MORE TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION. CONFIDENCE IS LOW HOWEVER DUE TO THE LACK OF GUIDANCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS EVEN MORE SCARCE, WITH NO MESOSCALE MODELS AVAILABLE. THE OVERALL PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED, WITH AN EXPECTATION OF DECREASED SHEAR AND IMPROVED OUTFLOW, SO THE FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
- TRACK 0 - 72 HR: LOW
- TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
- INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW
- INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
- NNNN
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楼主: Ck.
发表于 2025-12-18 20:35
