TCFA - 斯里兰卡东南深低压BOB 01(90B) - 北印新风季首旋，西行靠近斯里兰卡

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ABIO10 PGTW 101330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
REISSUED/101330Z-101800ZJAN2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/101321ZJAN2026//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
8.0N 82.8E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
12.0S 76.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.2S 76.1E, APPROXIMATELY 408 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY
SHOWS AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH VIGOROUS
BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITH MODERATE POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10
TO 15 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28 TO 29 C). MODELS
AGREE ON 93S TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT CONTINUES TO
CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF
A (WTXS21 PGTW 101330) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1) TO HIGH
AND DISSIPATED AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1).//
NNNN

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