迪戈加西亚东南强热带气旋第6号“杜扎伊”(14S.Dudzai) - MFR:110KT JTWC:100KT

ygsj24 · 发表于 2026-1-12 15:47

本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2026-1-12 18:00 编辑

WTXS31 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 16.6S 77.8E
   MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
   POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
   POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S 77.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 16.9S 77.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 17.2S 77.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 17.3S 77.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 17.3S 76.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 17.4S 74.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 17.5S 72.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 18.5S 70.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 16.7S 77.8E.
12JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 649
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 120600Z IS 962 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 24 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z AND 130900Z.//
NNNN

WDXS31 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR
004//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 16.6S 77.8E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 100 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 649 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 02 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 24 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) CONTINUING TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY. THE EYE HAS
CLEARED OUT, SIGNIFICANTLY WARMED, AND BECOME MUCH MORE SYMMETRIC
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) HAS ALSO
CONTRACTED INTO A SMALL RING WITH VERY COLD (-75 C) CLOUD TOPS
ENTIRELY SURROUNDING THE EYEWALL. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE DEFINED EYE IN ANIMATED MSI. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
BASED ON A COMBINATION OF THE AGENCY DVORAK FIXES AND OBJECTIVE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW. THE INITAL WIND RADII ARE PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A TIMELY 120406Z METOP-B ASCAT
BULLSEYE PASS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 14S IS IN A
HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (27-28
C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: 120406Z METOP-B ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T5.5 - 102 KTS
DEMS: T5.0 - 90 KTS
FMEE: T5.5 - 102 KTS
FIMP: T6.0 - 115 KTS
CIMSS ADT: 94 KTS AT 120630Z
CIMSS AIDT: 96 KTS AT 120630Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 105 KTS AT 120630Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
VWS: 5-10 KTS
SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: NEAR-TERM INTENSITY FORECAST HAS
INCREASED DUE TO CONTINUED RAPID INTENSIFICATION.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 14S IS FORECAST TO TRACK VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
THROUGH TAU 24 AS IT ENTERS A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT. NEAR
TAU 24, 14S IS EXPECTED TO INITIATE A SHARP WESTWARD TURN AS THE
STEERING MECHANISM SHIFTS TO A BUILDING STR TO THE SOUTHWEST. 14S
WILL THEN CONTINUE ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK, ALONG THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE STR, THROUGH TAU 96. AFTER TAU 96, THE
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR,
CAUSING A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, 14S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS DUE TO THE HIGHLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT. THE PEAK INTENSITY IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE 110
KTS, BUT BASED ON THE APPEARANCE AT 120800Z, THAT WILL LIKELY BE
TOO LOW. AFTER TAU 12, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH
COOLER WATERS DUE TO UPWELLING CAUSED BY THE EXTREMELY SLOW TRACK
SPEEDS. THIS WILL CAUSE 14S TO WEAKEN THROUGH TAU 36, BEFORE IT IS
ABLE TO TRAVERSE BACK OVER WARMER WATERS. NEAR TAU 96, THE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO TAP INTO A ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, ALLOWING
FOR REINTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 120. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF THE
HIGH NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR, AND ARE NOW DEPICTING LESS THAN 15 KTS OF
SHEAR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN MODERATE
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ONE SIGNIFICANT
OUTLIER IN GALWEM, WHICH ODDLY TRACKS THE VORTEX BACK EASTWARD
THROUGH TAU 36 RATHER THAN SOUTHWARD OR WESTWARD. THE REMAINDER OF
GUIDANCE AGREES ON THE GENERAL TRACK SCENARIO FOR 14S. AFTER TAU
72, MODELS DIVERGE WITH CROSS-TRACK SPREAD INCREASING TO AROUND 300
NM AT TAU 120. ECMWF IS THE SOUTHERNMOST MODEL WHILE UKMET IS THE
NORTHERNMOST. GFS IS ALSO NOTABLY FASTER FROM TAU 72 ONWARD THAN
THE REST OF GUIDANCE, CREATING AN ALONG-TRACK SPREAD OF NEAR 400
NM. OVERALL, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE
MODIFIED CONSENSUS (AFTER REMOVING GALWEM) WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
THROUGH TAU 72 AND LOW CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER. INTENSITY GUIDANCE
IS IN GENERALLY POOR AGREEMENT, ESPECIALLY AFTER TAU 48. HAFS-A AND
HWRF BOTH SUGGEST A SECOND PEAK AROUND TAU 84-96 OF 110-120 KTS. ON
THE OTHER HAND, GFS AND COAMPS-TC BOTH SUGGESTS A STEADY INTENSITY
OF 60-75 THROUGH TAU 120. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS
CLOSELY TO HAFS-A THROUGH TAU 48 AND THEN TRIES TO SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE THROUGH TAU 120, CALLING FOR ONLY MILD
REINTENSIFICATION.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
INTENSITY 00-72 HR: LOW
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
NNNN

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pocketbox · 发表于 2026-1-12 16:30

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：徐立、曹越男  签发：向纯怡  2026 年 01 月 12 日 18 时
“杜扎伊”向偏南方向移动

时  间: 12日14时（北京时）

海  域: 西南印度洋

命  名: “杜扎伊”，DUDZAI

中心位置: 南纬16.6度，东经77.7度

强度等级: 强热带气旋

最大风力: 15级，49米/秒，相当于我国的强台风级

中心气压: 955百帕

参考位置: 距离毛里求斯路易港东偏北方向约2170公里

变化过程: 过去24小时，“杜扎伊”由9级加强为15级

预报结论: “杜扎伊”将以每小时5-8公里的速度向偏南方向移动，强度维持。

图1  卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2026年1月12日14时00分）

pocketbox · 发表于 2026-1-12 20:30

本帖最后由 pocketbox 于 2026-1-12 21:40 编辑

WTIO30 FMEE 121239
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/6/20252026
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/12 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.8 S / 77.9 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.5/6.5/D 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 937 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 110 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 11 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 85 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 40 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/13 00 UTC: 17.0 S / 78.0 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

24H: 2026/01/13 12 UTC: 17.2 S / 77.9 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 205 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

36H: 2026/01/14 00 UTC: 17.3 S / 77.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 230 SW: 205 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

48H: 2026/01/14 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 76.5 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 270 SW: 215 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

60H: 2026/01/15 00 UTC: 17.3 S / 75.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 285 SW: 230 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 35

72H: 2026/01/15 12 UTC: 17.2 S / 74.0 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 400 SW: 250 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 220 SW: 165 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 85 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/16 12 UTC: 17.7 S / 71.4 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 345 SW: 270 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45

120H: 2026/01/17 12 UTC: 20.3 S / 67.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 350 SW: 240 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=6.5

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE EYE OF DUDZAI HAS STABILIZED. THE POLAR
SIDE OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS STILL PRESENT AND INDICATES EFFICIENT UPPER
DIVERGENCE. THE LATEST DVORAK EYE ANALYSES GIVE A DT AT 6.5,
EQUIVALENT TO AN INTENSITY OF 110KT. FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY,
OBJECTIVE ANALYSES ARE SLIGHTLY LESS INTENSE. DUDZAI REMAINS AN
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE.

THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD, HINDERED BY CONTRADICTORY
STEERING FLOWS WITH THE PRESENCE OF MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGES TO THE
EAST AND NORTHWEST. ITS MOVEMENT WILL REMAIN VERY SLOW FROM NOW UNTIL
AT LEAST TOMORROW EVENING. THEREAFTER, THE STRENGTHENING OF THE
SUBTROPICAL MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE IN THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD GRADUALLY
SHIFT THE TRACK WESTWARD. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS
CONCERNING THE TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF THIS RIDGE AND THEREFORE ITS
TURN. THE SPREAD INCREASES FURTHER AFTER WEDNESDAY : SOME MODELS,
SUCH AS IFS, FORECAST A WEST-SOUTHWEST MOVEMENT, WHILE OTHERS, SUCH
AS HWRF AND HAFS, FORECAST A WEST-NORTHWEST MOVEMENT BEFORE DROPPING
TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AT THE END OF THE WEEK. IN THIS UNCERTAIN
CONTEXT, OUR TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE MAIN
MODELS AND IS CLOSE TO THE IA ENSEMBLE AVERAGES, TAKING INTO ACCOUNT
THAT THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS FAIRLY ISOLATED WITH A MORE SOUTHERN
TRACK.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, DUDZAI HAS BENEFITED FROM FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (LOW VERTICAL SHEAR, WARM WATERS AT 27AOC,
STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE WITH A POLAR OUTFLOW CHANNEL). HOWEVER, IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM COULD LEAD TO A
COOLING OF THE UNDERLYING WATERS, LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION. IN ADDITION, IT COULD UNDERGO AN EYE REPLACEMENT
CYCLE IN THE NEAR FUTURE OR A TEMPORARY NORTHWESTERLY MID SHEAR. IT
SHOULD THEREFORE BE RETROGRADED TO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE.
STARTING ON WEDNESDAY, INCREASING WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY DEEP
SHEAR COULD TRIGGER A GRADUAL WEAKENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN FOR THIS SMALL SYSTEM AND WILL DEPEND ON THE
TRACK.

NO IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS.

ygsj24 · 发表于 2026-1-13 04:35

WTIO30 FMEE 121841
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/6/20252026
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/12 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.9 S / 77.9 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 2 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 938 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 110 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 11 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 60 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/13 06 UTC: 17.2 S / 77.9 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 185 SW: 175 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 35

24H: 2026/01/13 18 UTC: 17.4 S / 77.6 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 240 SW: 220 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

36H: 2026/01/14 06 UTC: 17.4 S / 76.8 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 250 SW: 230 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

48H: 2026/01/14 18 UTC: 17.3 S / 75.7 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 260 SW: 220 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 35

60H: 2026/01/15 06 UTC: 17.2 S / 74.5 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 295 SW: 260 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

72H: 2026/01/15 18 UTC: 17.1 S / 73.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 350 SW: 280 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/16 18 UTC: 17.9 S / 69.7 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 315 SW: 270 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55

120H: 2026/01/17 18 UTC: 20.5 S / 66.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 335 SW: 280 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=6.0 CI=6.5

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, DUDZAI HAS KEPT A FAIRLY ROBUST EYE PATTERN
WITH STILL VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS BUT A GRADUALLY COOLING EYE
TEMPERATURE. THIS TRANSLATES INTO A SLIGHTLY WEAKENING DVORAK EYE
ANALYSIS, YIELDING A DT DOWN TO 6.0. THE MET/PT IS ALSO AT 6.0, WHILE
THE CI IS LEFT AT 6.5 BY INERTIA. THE LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGES (F17
1236Z, F16 1419Z) SHOW A VERY TIGHT CONVECTIVE CORE THAT REMAINS
UNHARMED FOR THE MOMENT, WITH NO OBVIOUS IMMINENT SIGNS OF ONSET OF
AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. A 1320Z SAR RCM-3 PASS CONFIRMS THE
INTENSITY ESTIMATED AT 12UTC WITH 1-MIN WINDS OF 115 TO 125KT,
CONSISTENT WITH 10-MIN WINDS OF 105/110KT. IT CONFIRMS THE VERY SMALL
EYE DIAMETER WITH AN RMW OF 6 NM. THE LATEST OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM
SATCON/ADT/DMINT ARE BETWEEN 115 AND 125KT (1-MIN WINDS). THESE
VARIOUS INPUTS ALLOW US TO MAKE DUDZAI'S INTENSITY PLATEAU AT 110KT
AT 18UTC.

THE SYSTEM'S MOTION IS NOW VERY SLOW AND HAS TURNED SOUTHWARDS, UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS WITH THE PRESENCE OF
MID-LEVEL RIDGES TO THE EAST AND NORTHWEST. ITS MOVEMENT WILL REMAIN
VERY SLOW UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING. LATER ON, THE STRENGTHENING OF THE
SUBTROPICAL MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD GRADUALLY
SHIFT THE TRACK WESTWARD. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS
REGARDING THE TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF THIS RIDGE AND THEREFORE ABOUT THE
WESTWARD TURN. MODEL SPREAD INCREASES FURTHER AFTER WEDNESDAY : SOME
MODELS, SUCH AS IFS, FORECAST A WEST-SOUTHWEST MOVEMENT, WHILE
OTHERS, SUCH AS HWRF AND HAFS, FORECAST A WEST-NORTHWEST MOVEMENT
BEFORE DROPPING SOUTHWEST DURING THE WEEKEND. IN THIS UNCERTAIN
CONTEXT, OUR TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN MAIN
MODELS AND IS CLOSE TO THE AI ENSEMBLE AVERAGES.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, DUDZAI HAS BENEFITED FROM FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (LOW VERTICAL SHEAR, WARM WATERS NEAR 27C,
STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE WITH A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL). HOWEVER, IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE SYSTEM'S SLOW MOVEMENT COULD LEAD TO COOLING
OF THE UNDERLYING WATERS. IN ADDITION, INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY
MID-LEVEL SHEAR AND A POSSIBLE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE COULD
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DUDZAI
SHOULD THEREFORE BE DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE BY TUESDAY
NIGHT ONWARDS. FROM WEDNESDAY, WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY DEEP SHEAR
COULD MORE OR LESS CAP THE SYSTEM'S INTENSITY. HOWEVER, ITS FASTER
WESTWARD MOVEMENT SHOULD INCREASE OCEAN HEAT POTENTIAL AND WIND SHEAR
COULD TEMPORARILY WEAKEN BETWEEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, DEPENDING ON
HOW FAR AWAY TO THE NORTH OF THE UPPER JET STREAM IT WILL TRACK.
CONSEQUENTLY, THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN FOR THIS
SMALL SYSTEM AND WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK.

NO IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS.=

ygsj24 · 发表于 2026-1-13 04:35

本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2026-1-13 06:00 编辑

WTXS31 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 17.0S 78.0E
   MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
   POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
   POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S 78.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 17.3S 77.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 17.4S 77.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 17.4S 76.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 17.3S 75.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 17.3S 73.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 18.1S 70.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 20.0S 67.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 17.1S 78.0E.
12JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 676
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 121800Z IS 948 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
130900Z AND 132100Z.
//
NNNN

WDXS31 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR
005//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 17.0S 78.0E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 115 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 676 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 02 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 27 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
CYCLONE (TC) 14S (DUDZAI) SLOWING ITS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT
AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STR CENTERED TO
THE SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM HAS LIKELY REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY OF
120-125 KTS WITHIN THE LAST 6-12 HOURS. DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT CAN BE
SEENSTARTING TO WRAP INTO THE CORE OF THE VORTEX PRIMARILY FROM THE
NORTH. SLOW TRANSLATION SPEED IS INCREASING THE IMPACTS OF
UPWELLING AND SLIGHTLY COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST).
ADDITIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS,
INCLUDING LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, BASED ON
THE EYE FEATURE, WHICH HAS BEEN SLOWLY FILLING, WHILE THE TEMPERATURES
COOLED RAPIDLY, FROM AROUND 7 C AT 15Z, DOWN TO -38 C AT 18Z. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ALSO PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
121320Z RCM-3 SAR DATA IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE OBJECTIVE AND AGENCY
DVORAK ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: 121320Z RCM-3 SAR DATA
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE
SOUTHEAST
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T6.5 - 127 KTS
DEMS: T6.0 - 115 KTS
FMEE: T6.5 - 127 KTS
FIMP: T6.5 - 127 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 118 KTS AT 121419Z
CIMSS ADT: 119 KTS AT 121800Z
CIMSS AIDT: 118 KTS AT 121700Z
CIMSS D-MINT: 117 KTS AT 121812Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 112 KTS AT 121800Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
VWS: 5-10 KTS
SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC DUDZAI IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SLOWING DOWN
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS, AS A RESULT OF A COMPETING
STEERING ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPING WITHIN THE AREA OF INTEREST. THE
SYSTEM CAN ALREADY BE SEEN STARTING TO TRACK SOUTHWARD. AROUND TAU
12, A DEVELOPING STR CENTERED TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL RESULT IN
PUSHING THE SYSTEM WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. AFTER THAT, TC 14S IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD UNTIL TAU 72. AROUND THAT TIME, THE
BUILDING STR TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL REPOSITION SOUTHEAST OF THE
STORM. AS A RESULT, TC DUDZAI WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STR AND TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN REGARD TO INTENSITY, TC 14S IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE WEAKENING FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS, PRIMARILY DUE TO
IMPACTS OF THE COLD WATER UPWELLING, AND DRY AIR INTRUSION. VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW TO MODERATE THROUGHOUT THE
DURATION OF THE FORECAST, HOWEVER AROUND TAU 72 A ROBUST POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL WILL OPEN UP TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, ALLOWING
ROOM FOR RE-INTENSIFICATION. POSITIVE IMPACTS OF GREAT OUTFLOW WILL
HOWEVER CONTINUE TO BE LIMITED BY THE INTRODUCTION OF DRY AIR, WHICH
IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SIGNIFICANT BETWEEN TAUS 72 AND 96.
MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL FAIR
AGREEMENT IN REGARD TO THE TRACK, WITH NEARLY ALL MODELS AGREEING
ON THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TIMELINE OF THE COMPLETION OF THE WESTWARD TURN EXPECTED TO
OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS. MAJOR OUTLIERS ARE CURRENTLY GALWEM,
WITH THE INITIAL NORTHWESTWARD TRACK PREDICTION, AS WELL AS NAVGEM
SUGGESTING A FASTER SOUTHWESTWARD TURN ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STR. JTWC OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS LAID ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE AND WITHIN APPROXIMATELY 25 NM OF THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS TRACK. IN REGARD TO INTENSITY, MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON A RATHER STEEP WEAKENING TREND FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTER THAT,
THE GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT, WITH HAFS AND HWRF PREDICTING STEEP
INTENSIFICATION, POTENTIALLY UP TO 110-120 KT, WHILE STATISTICAL-
DYNAMICAL SHIPS GUIDANCE PREDICTS STEADY AND CONTINUOUS WEAKENING. IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE GFS AND COAMPS-TC CAN BE FOUND,
WITH STEADYING INTENSITY, OR SOME VERY MINOR INCREASE IN MAXIMUM
WINDS. AS SUCH, THE OFFICIAL JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ASSESSED WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE AFTER TAU 72, BUT LEANING SLIGHTLY TOWARDS THE GUIDANCE
FROM HAFS AND HWRF, BASED ON THE ANALYSIS OF THE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
NNNN

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[值得关注] 迪戈加西亚东南强热带气旋第6号“杜扎伊”(14S.Dudzai) - MFR:110KT JTWC:100KT

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