TCFA - 新喀里多尼亚西北14U(94P) - 17.1S 159.3E

红豆棒冰冰

ABPW10 PGTW 131800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/131800Z-140600ZJAN2026//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
7.8N 131.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.0N 131.3E, APPROXIMATELY 206 NM WEST
OF PALAU. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A
DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP
CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN QUADRANTS AS WELL AS
FORMATIVE BANDING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (29-30 C) OFFSET WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(15-20 KTS). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT 91W
WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GLOBAL ENSEMBLES
ARE ALSO IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH EXPECTED STEADY INTENSIFICATION OVER
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
20.3S 160.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.9S 159.9E, APPROXIMATELY 565 NM
NORTHEAST OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION DISPLACED FAR TO
THE NORTHEAST. A 131111Z METOP-C ASCAT PARTIAL PASS SHOWS 20 KT WINDS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION.  ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITH HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25-30 KTS), MODERATE EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-28 C). GLOBAL MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE ON 94P STAYING QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MODELS SHOW LITTLE TO NO DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS, HOWEVER,
THEY ARE CURRENTLY UNDERESTIMATING THE STRUCTURE OF 94P. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO
MEDIUM.//
NNNN

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 18Z分析升至T2.0

TPPS11 PGTW 131802
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94P (W OF NEW CALEDONIA)
B. 13/1730Z
C. 20.57S
D. 159.68E
E. FIVE/HMWRI9
F. T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS  STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 47A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES LOCATED NEAR COLD OVERCAST YIELD A DT OF 2.0. MET YIELDS 2.0.
PT YIELDS 2.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   HUYNH

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 21Z分析维持T2.0

TPPS11 PGTW 132106
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94P (W OF NEW CALEDONIA)
B. 13/2030Z
C. 20.13S
D. 159.60E
E. FIVE/HMWRI9
F. T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES LOCATED UNDER COLD OVERCAST YIELD A DT OF 2.0. MET YIELDS
2.0. PT YIELDS 2.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   HUYNH

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 00Z分析降至T1.5/2.0

TPPS11 PGTW 140013
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94P (W OF NEW CALEDONIA)
B. 13/2330Z
C. 20.41S
D. 159.77E
E. FIVE/HMWRI9
F. T1.5/2.0/S0.0/24HRS  STT: W0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. LLCC LOCATED UNDER VERY
SMALL, COLD OVERCAST YIELDS A DT OF 1.5. MET YIELDS 2.0. PT YIELDS
1.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   HUYNH

pocketbox

ABPW10 PGTW 140130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/140130Z-140600ZJAN2026//
REF/BA/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/130121ZJAN2026//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
...
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
20.3S 160.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.7S 159.9E, APPROXIMATELY 563 NM
NORTHEAST OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION DISPLACED FAR TO THE
NORTHEAST.  ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25-30 KTS),
MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-28
C). GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON LITTLE TO NO DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT 3-4 DAYS, HOWEVER, THEY ARE CURRENTLY UNDERESTIMATING THE
STRUCTURE OF 94P. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18
TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO HIGH
AND DOWNGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO LOW.//
NNNN

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 03Z分析维持T1.5/2.0

TPPS11 PGTW 140315
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94P (W OF NEW CALEDONIA)
B. 14/0230Z
C. 20.79S
D. 159.86E
E. THREE/HMWRI9
F. T1.5/2.0/S0.0/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 19A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES
LOCATED MORE THAN 75NM OUTSIDE OF COLD OVERCAST YIELD A DT OF 1.0.
MET YIELDS 1.0. PT YIELDS 1.5. DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   LINDGREN

红豆棒冰冰

ABPW10 PGTW 140600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/140600Z-150600ZJAN2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/140121ZJAN2026//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
7.8N 131.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.8N 132.4E, APPROXIMATELY 138 NM WEST
OF PALAU. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP
CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN QUADRANTS, A 140034Z
METOP-B ASCAT PASS REVEALS AREAS OF ELEVATED WINDS TO THE NORTH AS
WELL AS A WELL DEFINED AND SYMMETRICAL CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(29-30 C) OFFSET WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS). GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT 91W WILL CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GLOBAL ENSEMBLES ARE ALSO IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH EXPECTED STEADY INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 140130)
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
20.3S 160.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.7S 159.9E, APPROXIMATELY 563 NM
NORTHEAST OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION DISPLACED FAR TO THE
NORTHEAST.  ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25-30 KTS),
MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-28
C). GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON LITTLE TO NO DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT 3-4 DAYS, HOWEVER, THEY ARE CURRENTLY UNDERESTIMATING THE
STRUCTURE OF 94P. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18
TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
NNNN

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 06Z分析降至T1.0/2.0

TPPS11 PGTW 140623
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94P (W OF NEW CALEDONIA)
B. 14/0530Z
C. 20.75S
D. 160.24E
E. THREE/GK2A
F. T1.0/2.0/W0.5/24HRS  STT: W0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 19A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES
LOCATED MORE THAN 75NM OUTSIDE OF COLD OVERCAST YIELD A DT OF 1.0.
BOTH MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   LINDGREN

pocketbox

Tropical Low 14U
A tropical low (14U) is developing west of New Caledonia. High chance of developing into a tropical cyclone next week.

• A tropical low (14U) lies to the west of New Caledonia.
• There is a Low chance that 14U will develop into a tropical cyclone from Friday, increasing to a Moderate chance from Saturday and a High chance from later Monday.
• 14U is expected to remain well to the east of the Australian mainland, but may enter the far eastern parts of the Australian region early next week.
• Early next week, the system may start to take a track to the southeast and move closer to Norfolk Island. However, there does remains uncertainty in the track and development early next week.
• Residents on Norfolk Island should monitor forecasts for updates.
  

Last updated
38 minutes ago, 08:50 am UTC

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Tropical Low 14U

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45 (Moderate)

35 (Moderate)

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 09Z分析T1.0/1.5

TPPS11 PGTW 140908
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94P (W OF NEW CALDONIA)
B. 14/0830Z
C. 20.65S
D. 160.33E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T1.0/1.5/W0.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. CIRCULARLY DEFINED
CLOUD LINES LOCATED MORE THAN 75NM OUTSIDE OF COLD OVERCAST YIELD A
DT OF 1.0. BOTH MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   LINDGREN