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JTWC:REMAINS LOW
ABPW10 PGTW 202100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/202100Z-210600ZJAN2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/201351ZJAN2026//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 20JAN26 1200Z, TROPICAL STORM 01W (NOKAEN) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 17.7N 131.9E, APPROXIMATELY 610 NM NORTHWEST OF YAP, AND HAD
TRACKED EASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 201500) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
6.3N 146.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.4N 145.8E, APPROXIMATELY 362 NM WEST
OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AND
DISORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH FAIR POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW, MODERATE TO HIGH EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 TO 25 KTS),
AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 TO 30 C). ECENS IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE OUT OF THE ENSEMBLE MODELS, HOWEVER, THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS ARE MUCH MORE HESITANT ON THE CONSOLIDATION OF 92W. GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW 92W TRACKING GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO
48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 17
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
14.8S 151.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.9S 156.5E, APPROXIMATELY 374 NM
EAST OF WILLIS ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
REVEALS A BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC), EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF TROUGHING THAT EXTENDS
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO INVEST 94P. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (15-20KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 C), AND
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE CONSERVATIVE IN
DEVELOPMENT OF 99P, AND ONLY THE GFS SUPPORTS INTENSIFICATION ABOVE 35
KNOTS PRIOR TO REACHING NEW CALEDONIA. BOTH THE GEFS AND ECENS
ENSEMBLES HOWEVER, SUPPORT STRENGTHENING AND INTENSIFICATION OVER THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEANCE THAT 99P WITH TAKE
A GENERAL SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
REMAINS MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPDATED PARA. 1.A.(1) WITH 04W FINAL
WARNING INFORMATION.//
NNNN
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楼主: Ragasa
发表于 2026-1-21 05:02
发表于 2026-1-21 11:28
