‌新喀里多尼亚以西热带低压06F(16P)

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 09Z分析维持T2.5

TPPS10 PGTW 210917
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NW OF NEW CALEDONIA)
B. 21/0830Z
C. 19.66S
D. 162.06E
E. THREE/GK2A
F. T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 17A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. DENSE OVERCAST SHEARED 20NM
FROM LLCC YIELDS A DT OF 3.0. MET YIELDS 2.0. PT YIELDS 2.5. DBO
PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   LINDGREN

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 12Z分析维持T2.5，SSD分析升至T2.5

TPPS10 PGTW 211215
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NW OF NEW CALEDONIA)
B. 21/1130Z
C. 20.51S
D. 162.84E
E. THREE/GK2A
F. T2.5/2.5/D1.5/27HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 17A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. DENSE OVERCAST SHEARED 35NM
FROM LLCC YIELDS A DT OF 2.5. MET YIELDS 2.0 AND PT YIELDS 2.5. DBO
DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   BALMER

TXPS27 KNES 211237
TCSWSP
A.  16P (NONAME)
B.  21/1130Z
C.  20.8S
D.  163.0E
E.  THREE/HIMAWARI-9
F.  T2.5/2.5
G.  IR/EIR/PRXY
H.  REMARKS...LLCC LESS THAN 3/4 DEGREE FM LARGE COLD OVERCAST RESULTS
IN A DT OF 2.5. THE 6-HR AVERAGE DT IS 2.6. MET IS 1.5 AND PT IS 2.0. THE
FT IS BASED ON THE 6 HOUR AVERAGE DT WHICH JUSTIFIES BREAKING CONSTRAINTS.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...ZENG

pocketbox

WTPS31 PGTW 211500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 003   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   211200Z --- NEAR 20.8S 163.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 25 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.8S 163.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   220000Z --- 23.4S 167.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 22 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   221200Z --- 25.0S 171.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 19 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   230000Z --- 25.8S 175.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 17 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   231200Z --- 25.9S 179.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
211500Z POSITION NEAR 21.5S 164.0E.
21JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
190 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 25 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 211200Z IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 16 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z, 220300Z, 220900Z AND 221500Z.//
NNNN

1. WDPS31 PGTW 211500
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WARNING
   
4. NR 003//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 20.8S 163.0E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 190 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW
    
13. CALEDONIA
    
14.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHEASTWARD AT 25 KTS
    
15.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 16 FEET
    
16. 
    
17. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
18. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
    
19. CYCLONE 16P WITH A WELL-DEFINED, EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
    
20. CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS TRACKING PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF NEW
    
21. CALEDONIA. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF THE
    
22. LLCC. A 211006Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE REVEALED A COMPACT WIND FIELD
    
23. WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS (40 KTS) WITHIN A SMALL PATCH IN THE
    
24. NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
    
25. CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC IN ANIMATED EIR IMAGERY. THE
    
26. INITIAL INTENSITY AND WIND RADII ARE BOTH ASSESSED WITH HIGH
    
27. CONFIDENCE BASED PRIMARILY ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT IMAGE.
    
28. AGENCY DVORAK FIXES OF T2.5-3.0 FURTHER SUPPORT THE INITIAL
    
29. INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 40 KTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT
    
30. 16P IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
    
31. MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15 KTS) NORTHEASTERLY
    
32. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, SLIGHT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, AND WARM (27-28 C)
    
33. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
    
34. 
    
35. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: 211006Z METOP-B ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA
    
36. 
    
37. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
    
38. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED NEAR FIJI.
    
39. 
    
40. 
    
41. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
42.    PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
    
43.    KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS
    
44.    PHFO: T3.0 - 45 KTS
    
45.    CIMSS ADT: 34 KTS AT 211200Z
    
46.    CIMSS AIDT: 35 KTS AT 211200Z
    
47.    CIMSS D-MINT: 36 KTS AT 210725Z
    
48.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 30 KTS AT 211200Z
    
49. 
    
50. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
    
51.    VWS: 10-15 KTS
    
52.    SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
    
53.    OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD
    
54.    OTHER FACTORS: SLIGHT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE NORTHWEST
    
55. 
    
56. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
57.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
58.    INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
    
59.    INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH
    
60. 
    
61. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
62. 
    
63. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THE FORECAST HAS BEEN TRUNCATED TO 48
    
64. HOURS. OTHERWISE, THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
    
65. 
    
66. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 16P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
    
67. SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH
    
68. TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, THE TRAJECTORY IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE
    
69. EASTWARD AS THE SYSTEM ROUNDS THE RIDGE AND BEGINS TO TRACK ALONG
    
70. THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. EVEN THOUGH THE WIND FIELD OF
    
71. 16P IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE COMPACT, THE EXTENT OF GALE-FORCE
    
72. WINDS WILL LIKELY SKIRT THE SOUTHERN COASTS OF NEW CALEDONIA,
    
73. POTENTIALLY AFFECTING AREAS NEAR NOUMEA AS 16P PASSES BY. REGARDING
    
74. INTENSITY, 16P IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 12
    
75. UNDER SIMILAR ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. AFTER TAU 12, INCREASING
    
76. DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
    
77. THE SYSTEM. DISSIPATION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR AROUND TAU 48, AS THE
    
78. SYSTEM BECOMES ENGULFED BY DRY AIR FROM THE WEST.
    
79. 
    
80. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY
    
81. GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
    
82. OUTLIERS PRESENT. CROSS-TRACK AND ALONG-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 48 IS
    
83. AROUND 80 NM AND 90 NM RESPECTIVELY. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS
    
84. PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
    
85. INTENSITY GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES ON A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND
    
86. AFTER TAU 12. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ALSO PLACED NEAR THE
    
87. CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
    
88. 
    
89. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
90.    TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
    
91.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH//
    
92. NNNN

复制代码

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 15Z分析维持T2.5

TPPS10 PGTW 211514
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NW OF NEW CALEDONIA)
B. 21/1430Z
C. 21.33S
D. 163.62E
E. THREE/GK2A
F. T2.5/2.5/D1.5/30HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 17A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. LLCC LOCATED WITHIN 75NM OF
COLD OVERCAST GREATER THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELDS A DT OF 2.0. MET
YIELDS 2.0 AND PT YIELDS 2.5. DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   BALMER

红豆棒冰冰

SSD 18Z分析降至T2.0/2.5，JTWC分析维持T2.5/2.5

TXPS27 KNES 211806
TCSWSP
A.  16P (NONAME)
B.  21/1730Z
C.  22.1S
D.  164.6E
E.  THREE/HIMAWARI-9
F.  T2.0/2.5
G.  IR/EIR/PRXY/AMSR2
H.  REMARKS...CENTER LOCATED <3/4 DEG FM A LARGE COLD OVC RESULTING IN
A DT OF 2.5. LLCC WELL-DEFINED. MET=2.5 AND PT=2.0. FT BASED ON PT DUE
TO IRREG/PULSING CONVECTION.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    21/1404Z 21.4S 163.4E AMSR2
...KONON

TPPS10 PGTW 211819
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (W OF NEW CALEDONIA)
B. 21/1730Z
C. 21.94S
D. 164.33E
E. THREE/GK2A
F. T2.5/2.5/D1.0/21HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 17A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. DENSE OVERCAST SHEARED 35NM
FROM LLCC YIELDS A DT OF 2.5. MET YIELDS 2.5. PT YIELDS 2.5. DBO
DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   21/1403Z  21.40S  163.33E  AMS2
   TIMMERMAN

ygsj24

WTPS31 PGTW 212100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 004   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   211800Z --- NEAR 22.1S 164.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 22.1S 164.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z --- 24.2S 168.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 21 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z --- 25.4S 173.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 19 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z --- 25.8S 177.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
212100Z POSITION NEAR 22.6S 165.6E.
21JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 89
NM WEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 19
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 211800Z IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
220300Z, 220900Z, 221500Z AND 222100Z.
//
NNNN

1. WDPS31 PGTW 212100
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WARNING
   
4. NR 004//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 22.1S 164.5E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 89 NM WEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHEASTWARD AT 19 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 16 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. THE STRUCTURE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16P HAS LOOSENED SOMEWHAT
    
18. WITH A SLIGHTLY TILTED, BROADENING, AND CLOUD FILLED LOW-LEVEL
    
19. CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS DISPLACED TO THE
    
20. SOUTHWEST AS DEPICTED BY ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
    
21. IMAGERY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED
    
22. ON ANIMATED SHORTWAVE INFRARED (SWIR) AND VISUAL IMAGERY OF THE
    
23. LLCC FEATURE CONSISTENT WITH AN EARLIER 211402Z AMSR2 PASS. THE
    
24. INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
    
25. BASED ON WINDSPEED DATA DERIVED FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED AMSR2 PASS
    
26. AS WELL AS SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM NEW CALEDONIA.
    
27. 
    
28. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK
    
29. 
    
30. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
    
31. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED NEAR FIJI.
    
32. 
    
33. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
34.    PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
    
35.    KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS
    
36.    PHFO: T3.0 - 45 KTS
    
37.    CIMSS SATCON: 44 KTS AT 211600Z
    
38.    CIMSS ADT: 33 KTS AT 211930Z
    
39.    CIMSS AIDT: 38 KTS AT 211930Z
    
40.    CIMSS D-MINT: 32 KTS AT 211434Z
    
41.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 31 KTS AT 211930Z
    
42. 
    
43. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
    
44.    VWS: 15-20 KTS
    
45.    SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
    
46.    OUTFLOW: WEAK POLEWARD
    
47. 
    
48. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
49.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
50.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
51.    INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
    
52. 
    
53. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
54. 
    
55. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
56. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
57. 
    
58. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16P WILL CONTINUE TO
    
59. TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
    
60. TO THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
    
61. PERIOD AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PERSISTS AND SURROUNDING DRIER AIR
    
62. ENTRAINS INTO THE SYSTEM. DISSIPATION OF TC 16P IS EXPECTED BY TAU
    
63. 36 WITH 30 KT MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS.
    
64. 
    
65. MODEL DISCUSSION: CROSS TRACK SPREAD AMONGST THE CONSENSUS MODELS
    
66. IS UNDER 100 NM THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH GFS AT THE
    
67. NORTHERN END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND COAMPS-TC AND THE ECMWF
    
68. ENSEMBLE MEAN BRACKETING THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE. THE JTWC
    
69. FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI MODEL CONSENSUS WITH
    
70. HIGH CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY SPREAD AMONGST THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS
    
71. UNDER 20 KTS WITH THE MAJORITY HOVERING AT 30-35 KT MAXIMUM WIND
    
72. SPEEDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE JTWC OFFICIAL
    
73. FORECAST REFLECTS INTENSITIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI MODEL CONSENSUS AND
    
74. PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
    
75. 
    
76. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
77.    TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
    
78.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH//
    
79. NNNN

复制代码

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 21Z分析降至T2.0/2.5

TPPS10 PGTW 212058
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (W OF NEW CALEDONIA)
B. 21/2030Z
C. 22.64S
D. 165.74E
E. THREE/GK2A
F. T2.0/2.5/D0.5/24HRS  STT: W0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 19A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES
LOCATED WITHIN 75NM OF COLD OVERCAST YIELD A DT OF 1.5. MET YIELDS
1.5. PT YIELDS 1.5. FT BASED ON CONSTRAINTS.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   TIMMERMAN

Ragasa

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 212154 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD06F CENTRE [998HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 22.8S
165.8E AT 212100UTC. TD06F MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 25 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD BASED ON HIMAWARI-9 VIS IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.

THE SYSTEM LIES UNDER LOW TO MODERATE UPPER DIVERGENCE WITH GOOD
DIVERGENCE TO THE SOUTH. LOW TO MODERATE WIND SHEAR WITH DEEP
CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SUPPOSED LLCC. DRY
AIR ENTERING FROM THE SOUTHEAST. SST AROUND 27 DEGREES CELSIUS. THE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE STEERED SOUTHEAST BY THE NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM WITH LITTLE INTENSIFICATION.

TD06F IS EXPECTED TO EXIT RSMC NADI'S AOR TOMORROW.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
VERY LOW.

*********************************************************************

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

*********************************************************************

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 00Z分析维持T2.0/2.5，SSD分析降至T1.0/2.0

TPPS10 PGTW 220005
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (W OF NEW CALEDONIA)
B. 21/2330Z
C. 23.21S
D. 166.91E
E. THREE/GK2A
F. T2.0/2.5/W0.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 19A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES
LOCATED WITHIN 75NM OF COLD OVERCAST YIELD A DT OF 1.5. MET YIELDS
1.5. PT YIELDS 1.5. FT BASED ON CONSTRAINTS.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   21/1834Z  22.33S  164.68E  MMWI
   TIMMERMAN

TXPS27 KNES 220100
TCSWSP
A.  16P (NONAME)
B.  21/2330Z
C.  23.3S
D.  166.8E
E.  THREE/HIMAWARI-8
F.  T1.0/2.0
G.  IR/EIR/VIS
H.  REMARKS...EXPOSED LLCC WITH MINIMAL CONVECTION RESULTS IN DT=0. MET
<1.0 AND PT 1.0. FT BASED ON CONSTRAINTS DUE TO PREV 6 HR DT NOT <1.5
IN ORDER TO END CLASSIFICATIONS.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...KONON

ygsj24

WTPS31 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 005   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   220000Z --- NEAR 23.5S 166.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 26 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 23.5S 166.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   221200Z --- 25.2S 171.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 21 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   230000Z --- 25.9S 176.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 20 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   231200Z --- 26.1S 179.3W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 23.9S 168.1E.
22JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 95
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 26 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 220000Z IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
220900Z, 221500Z, 222100Z AND 230300Z.
//
NNNN

1. WDPS31 PGTW 220300
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WARNING
   
4. NR 005//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 23.5S 166.9E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 95 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW
    
13. CALEDONIA
    
14.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHEASTWARD AT 26 KTS
    
15.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 16 FEET
    
16. 
    
17. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
18. TC 16P HAS MAINTAINED ITS STRUCTURE AND INTENSITY OVER THE PAST SIX
    
19. HOURS, WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINING TIGHTLY WRAPPED BUT
    
20. LARGELY DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
    
21. WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN EXPOSED CENTER EVIDENT IN
    
22. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KTS IS
    
23. ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA
    
24. FROM 212113Z AND 212152Z.
    
25. 
    
26. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: 212113Z METOP-B ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA
    
27. 
    
28. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE
    
29. NORTHEAST
    
30. 
    
31. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
32.    PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
    
33.    CIMSS ADT: 31 KTS AT 212030Z
    
34.    CIMSS AIDT: 38 KTS AT 212030Z
    
35.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 26 KTS AT 212300Z
    
36. 
    
37. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
    
38.    VWS: 10-15 KTS
    
39.    SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
    
40.    OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD
    
41. 
    
42. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
43.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
44.    INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
    
45.    INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH
    
46. 
    
47. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
48. 
    
49. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
50. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
51. 
    
52. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16P WILL CONTINUE TO
    
53. TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING
    
54. TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. DESPITE LIMITED
    
55. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND PASSAGE OVER SUFFICIENTLY WARM WATER, SLOW
    
56. AND STEADY WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AS THE SYSTEM GRADUALLY
    
57. ENTRAINS DRIER AIR FROM THE SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT. DISSIPATION IS
    
58. EXPECTED BY TAU 36.
    
59. 
    
60. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL
    
61. AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TRACK FORECAST, WITH TIGHT PACKING IN THE
    
62. CONSENSUS MODELS THROUGH TAU 24 AND JUST A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
    
63. SPREAD BY TAU 36 DUE TO DIFFERING DEPICTIONS OF THE STEERING RIDGE
    
64. ORIENTATION. THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST LIES NEAR THE CONSENSUS
    
65. MEAN AND PREVIOUS JTWC FORECASTS, WHICH HAVE REMAINED STEADY FOR
    
66. THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. INTENSITY FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT
    
67. AGREEMENT REGARDING THE ANTICIPATED SLOW AND STEADY WEAKENING TREND
    
68. THROUGH TAU 36 WITH NO NOTEWORTHY OUTLIERS.
    
69. 
    
70. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
71.    TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
    
72.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH//
    
73. NNNN

复制代码