TCFA - 爪哇岛以南热带低压16U(91S)

红豆棒冰冰

ABIO10 PGTW 221800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/221800Z-
231800ZJAN2026//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
11.9S 118.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.7S 118.4E, APPROXIMATELY 619 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA . ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 221248Z GPM 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DISPLACED CONVECTION
TO THE WEST OF THE CIRCULATION AS WELL AS DEEP CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY, ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A
RELATIVELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW
ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KTS), AND WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 TO 30 C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE AREA OF CONVECTION (91S) WILL STEADILY CONSOLIDATE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
REMAINS HIGH.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 18Z分析升至T1.5/1.5

TPXS12 PGTW 221806
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 91S (NW OF BROOME)
B. 22/1750Z
C. 12.53S
D. 118.52E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T1.5/1.5/S0.0/24HRS  STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 47A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .25 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT YIELD 1.5. DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   22/1248Z  12.33S  118.25E  GPMI
   HUYNH

Ragasa

IDW24100
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 5
Issued at 2:56 am WST on Friday 23 January 2026

Headline:
Tropical Low (16U) has a high risk of developing into a category 2 tropical
cyclone as it approaches the northwest Kimberley Coast on Saturday.

Areas Affected:
Warning zone: Beagle Bay to Kuri Bay.

Watch zone: Bidyadanga to Mitchell Plateau, including Broome and Derby.

Cancelled zone: None.

Details of Tropical Low 16U at 2:00 am AWST:
Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 45 kilometres per
hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 65 kilometres of 12.9 degrees South 118.6 degrees East,
estimated to be 680 kilometres northwest of Broome and 730 kilometres northwest
of Derby.
Movement: slow moving.

Tropical Low (16U) is currently located to the northwest of the Kimberley
coast. The system is forecast to intensify as it tracks southeast during
Friday, towards the northwest Kimberley coast.

16U may reach tropical cyclone strength late Friday and is likely to intensify
to a category 2 system early Saturday, before crossing the northwest Kimberley
coast during Saturday.

Hazards:
DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 130 km/h may develop about coastal parts between
Cockatoo Island and Beagle Bay as the system centre approaches on Saturday.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are possible between Kuri Bay and
Beagle Bay from late Friday or early Saturday morning and may extend west to
Mitchell Plateau and south to Broome during Saturday morning. Gales may extend
south to Bidyadanga later Saturday if the system takes a track further west.

HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible from late Friday
for the northwest Kimberley district, including the coast and adjacent inland
areas during Saturday.

Coastal residents within King Sound are specifically warned of the potential
for a DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone centre crosses the coast. Tides are
likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES
and DANGEROUS FLOODING.

Elsewhere, between between Cape Leveque and Cockatoo Island tides are likely to
rise above the normal high tide mark with LARGE WAVES and MINOR FLOODING of
low-lying coastal areas on Saturday as 16U crosses the Kimberley coast. Tides
will be higher than normal between Beagle Bay and Kalumburu on Saturday.

Recommended Action:
Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts
and warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 6:00 am AWST Friday 23 January.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling  13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2011, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533
532).  Users of these web pages are deemed to have read and accepted the
conditions described in the Copyright, Disclaimer, and Privacy statements
(http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml).

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	2 am January 23	tropical low	12.9S	118.6E	65
+6hr	8 am January 23	tropical low	13.4S	118.9E	85
+12hr	2 pm January 23	tropical low	14.1S	119.6E	105
+18hr	8 pm January 23	tropical low	14.9S	120.5E	125
+24hr	2 am January 24	1	15.6S	121.3E	120
+36hr	2 pm January 24	2	16.6S	122.7E	150
+48hr	2 am January 25	1	17.4S	123.5E	180
+60hr	2 pm January 25	tropical low	18.5S	123.6E	195
+72hr	2 am January 26	tropical low	19.7S	123.3E	215

1. IDW27600
   
2. TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
   
3. Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
   
4. at: 1903 UTC 22/01/2026
   
5. Name: Tropical Low  
   
6. Identifier: 16U
   
7. Data At: 1800 UTC
   
8. Latitude: 12.9S
   
9. Longitude: 118.6E
   
10. Location Accuracy: within 35nm (65 km)
    
11. Movement Towards: south (169 deg)
    
12. Speed of Movement: 3 knots (5 km/h)
    
13. Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots (45 km/h)
    
14. Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots (85 km/h)
    
15. Central Pressure: 1000 hPa
    
16. Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
    
17. Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
    
18. Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
    
19. Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
    
20. Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
    
21. Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
    
22. Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
    
23. Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
    
24. Radius of 64-knot winds:   nm (  km)
    
25. Radius of Maximum Winds:   nm (  km)
    
26. Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS
    
27. Pressure of outermost isobar: 1003 hPa
    
28. Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm (220 km)
    
29. FORECAST DATA
    
30. Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
    
31. (UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
    
32. +06:  23/0000: 13.4S 118.9E:     045 (085):  030  (055):  998
    
33. +12:  23/0600: 14.1S 119.6E:     055 (105):  035  (065):  996
    
34. +18:  23/1200: 14.9S 120.5E:     065 (125):  040  (075):  993
    
35. +24:  23/1800: 15.6S 121.3E:     065 (120):  045  (085):  990
    
36. +36:  24/0600: 16.6S 122.7E:     080 (150):  050  (095):  987
    
37. +48:  24/1800: 17.4S 123.5E:     095 (180):  035  (065):  995
    
38. +60:  25/0600: 18.5S 123.6E:     105 (195):  030  (055):  998
    
39. +72:  25/1800: 19.7S 123.3E:     115 (215):  025  (045): 1002
    
40. +96:  26/1800: 23.4S 123.8E:     150 (280):  020  (035): 1004
    
41. +120: 27/1800:             :              :            :     
    
42. REMARKS:
    
43. Tropical Low 16U continues to develop over waters northwest of the Kimberley.
    
44. The current position is based on animated satellite imagery and persistence.
    
45. Deep convection is beginning to consolidate closer to the west of the low-level
    
46. circulation in the last 6 hours.
    
47. 
    
48. Dvorak analysis indicates curved banding wrapping of approximately 0.35,
    
49. yielding a DT of 2.0. The MET is 1.5, adjusted to PT 2.0, with FT/CI at 2.0.
    
50. Objective guidance is not yet available.
    
51. 
    
52. The environment is favourable for further development. Sea surface temperatures
    
53. are around 29  30  C, and the system is embedded within strong low-level
    
54. monsoon flow, providing deep tropical moisture. Upper-level outflow is
    
55. currently good and is expected to improve later today as an upper-level trough
    
56. approaches southwest Western Australia. The system is also located within a
    
57. pocket of low vertical wind shear, supporting further organisation.
    
58. 
    
59. Tropical Low 16U is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone within the next
    
60. 24 hours, with the potential to reach Category 2 intensity prior to landfall on
    
61. the west Kimberley coast on Saturday.
    
62. 
    
63. The system is currently expected to be steered generally northwestwards by the
    
64. low-level monsoon flow. However, as 16U deepens, it is likely to respond more
    
65. strongly to the amplifying upper-level trough to the southwest. Numerical model
    
66. guidance is reasonably consistent regarding the overall track, with some
    
67. variation in north  south movement along the Kimberley coast depending on the
    
68. timing and rate of intensification.
    
69. 
    
70. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
    
71. ==
    
72. The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 23/0130 UTC.
    
73. 
    
74. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2011, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533
    
75. 532).  Users of these web pages are deemed to have read and accepted the
    
76. conditions described in the Copyright, Disclaimer, and Privacy statements
    
77. (http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml).

复制代码