帕劳西北热带低压02W - 数值支持发展，西行趋向菲律宾 - JMA:GW

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GFS 18Z继续预报西行趋向菲律宾，强度稍微调强，巅峰约995百帕

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ECMWF及FNV3 18Z系集，部分成员继续支持发展

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今天早晨ASCAT风场扫描显示北侧风力较强

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JTWC 00Z评级图显示94W评级提升至MEDIUM，但未见相关报文

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NRL最新报文显示00Z风速调升至25KT，可能即将升格

94W INVEST 260203 0000 8.7N 136.5E WPAC 15 1007
↓↓↓
94W INVEST 260203 0000 8.2N 135.8E WPAC 25 1003

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今天上午OSCAT风场可见闭合环流中心，东北侧有大片35kt风旗

pocketbox

ABPW10 PGTW 030600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/030600Z-040600ZFEB2026//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
10.0N 140.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.7N 136.5E, APPROXIMATELY 149 NM
NORTHEAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS A BROAD AND ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING
CONVECTION THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 032340Z ASCAT PASS
REVEALED A BEAN-SHAPED LLC, WITH A POSSIBLE CIRCULATION CENTER PINCHING
OFF IN THE NORTHEASTERN EXTENT OF THE LARGER ROTATION. WINDS ARE LIGHT
ON THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST FLANKS OF THE CIRCULATION, WHILE WINDS EXCEED
25-30 KNOTS ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN FLANK, EMBEDDED WITHIN A BELT OF
STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SURGE FLOW. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM PALAU
INDICATE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS INDICATIVE OF A CIRCULATION CENTER
POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE STATION, THOUGH WINDS ARE GENERALLY
LIGHT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE SYSTEM COCOONED WITHIN A SMALL POCKET OF LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 TO
30 C), AND GOOD POLEWARD AND WESTWARD OUTFLOW. ALL GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP
94W OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS, AGREEING WITH THE ENSEMBLE MODELS AS
WELL. MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEANCE THAT 94W WILL GENERALLY TAKE A WESTWARD
TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PHILIPPINES.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

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GFS 00Z继续预报西行趋向菲律宾，巅峰约994百帕

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SSD 06Z分析T1.5，JTWC分析T1.0

TXPQ28 KNES 030552
TCSWNP
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (94W)
B.  03/0530Z
C.  10.7N
D.  136.7E
E.  THREE/HIMAWARI-9
F.  T1.5/1.5
G.  IR/EIR/VIS
H.  REMARKS...3/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.5. POLEWARD UPR-LVL
OUTFLOW CHANNEL WELL-DEFINED. MET=1.0 AND PT=1.5. FT BASED ON DT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...KONON

TPPN10 PGTW 030619
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94W (NE OF PALAU)
B. 03/0530Z
C. 9.29N
D. 134.96E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T1.0/1.0/INIT OBS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .30 ON
LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT YIELD 1.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   LINDGREN

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理可後排提示：不要忘記冬季的背景氣壓比較高，看系集的時候可以注意一下