瓦努阿图以南二级热带气旋“厄米尔”(23P/09F.Urmil) - 东南行进，南太26年首个命名气旋

pocketbox · 发表于 2026-2-27 12:10

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：徐润杰、张增海  签发：向纯怡  2026 年 02 月 27 日 10 时
“厄米尔”于今日上午生成

时  间: 2月27日08时（北京时，下同）

海  域: 南太平洋

命  名: “厄米尔”，URMIL

中心位置: 南纬18.6度，东经167.8度

强度等级: 热带气旋（1级）

最大风力: 8级，18米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级

中心气压: 995百帕

参考位置: 距离南太平洋新西兰奥克兰西北方向约2140公里

变化过程: “厄米尔”于今日早上08时生成

预报结论: 预计，“厄米尔”将以每小时10-15公里左右的速度向东南方向移动，强度逐渐增强。

图1  卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2026年2月27日08时00分）

pocketbox · 发表于 2026-2-27 15:00

本帖最后由 pocketbox 于 2026-2-27 15:40 编辑

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A04 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 270735 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE URMIL CENTRE 992HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3S 168.5E AT
270600 UTC.  POSITION POOR BASED ON EIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE REPORTS.  CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 40 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
                     AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
                     AND WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
                     AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH BANDS TRYING TO WRAP ONTO
SUPPOSED LLCC FROM THE EAST. THE SYSTEM LIES IN AN AREA OF LOW SHEAR
WITH MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE AND MODERATE TO STRONG
VORTICITY. SST IS AROUND 28 DEGREE CELSIUS.
THE SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED SOUTHEAST BY THE DEEP LAYER MEAN TOWARDS
STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW.

DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON BANDING PATTERN WITH 0.6 WRAP, YIELDING
DT=3.0 AND PT AGREE WITH MET=3.5. FT BASED ON DT THUS, YIELDING

T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 271800 UTC 20.1S 169.8E MOV  AT  KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 280600 UTC 21.1S 171.9E MOV  AT  KT WITH 55 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 281800 UTC 22.9S 175.0E MOV  AT KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 010600 UTC 25.8S 179.1E MOV AT  KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09F
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 271400UTC.

	Time (UTC)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	6 am February 27	1	19.3S	168.5E	85
+6hr	12 pm February 27	1	19.7S	169.0E	110
+12hr	6 pm February 27	2	20.1S	169.8E	140
+18hr	12 am February 28	2	20.4S	170.7E	165
+24hr	6 am February 28	2	21.1S	171.9E	195
+36hr	6 pm February 28	1	22.9S	175.0E	255
+48hr	6 am March 1	1	25.8S	179.1E	315
+60hr	6 pm March 1	tropical low	29.8S	175.7W	405
+72hr	6 am March 2	tropical low	35.0S	169.2W	490

ygsj24 · 发表于 2026-2-27 15:57

本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2026-2-27 18:00 编辑

WTPS31 PGTW 270900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (URMIL) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (URMIL) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z --- NEAR 19.4S 168.5E
   MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
   POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
   POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
   SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.4S 168.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 19.8S 170.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 20.6S 172.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 22.0S 175.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 25.0S 179.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 30 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 32.5S 169.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
270900Z POSITION NEAR 19.5S 168.9E. 27FEB26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P
(URMIL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 103 NM SOUTH OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS
TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 270600Z IS 985 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 270600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 271500Z, 272100Z, 280300Z AND
280900Z.//
NNNN

WDPS31 PGTW 270900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (URMIL) WARNING NR
003//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 19.4S 168.5E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 103 NM SOUTH OF PORT VILA, VANUATU
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A VERY
COMPACT TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC), POSITIONED JUST WEST OF TANNA
ISLAND, VANUATU. ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
SMALL INNER CORE OF DEEP, COLD CONVECTION, WITH ISOLATED OVERSHOOTING
TOPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE UPPER-LEVEL VORTEX IS SITUATED ON THE
MARGINS OF RADAR RANGE FROM NEW CALEDONIA AND CORRESPONDING
REFLECTIVITY DATA INDICATES AN INTERMITTENT EYE FEATURE WITH
CONVECTIVE BURSTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE INNER CORE. THE
SYSTEM HAS TURNED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE PAST HOURS BASED ON
RADAR ANALYSIS AND IS NOW TRACKING TOWARDS TANNA ISLAND. LATE RECEIPT
OF A 270640Z SSMIS PASS SUGGESTS THE LLCC MAY BE DISPLACED
APPROXIMATELY 15NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE INITIAL POSITION, WHICH
WAS ASSESSED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON MSI, EIR, AND GROUND-BASED
RADAR DATA. THIS REVISED POSITION ALIGNS THE STORM TRACK WITH
OBSERVED MOTION, INDICATING A MORE EASTWARD VICE SOUTHEASTWARD. THE
SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE DATA INDICATES MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR BENEATH
THE OUTFLOW LAYER, WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE MASS SHEARED EAST OF THE
LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON
TIGHT CLUSTERING OF SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH LOW DEEP-LAYER
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SSTS,
PARTIALLY TEMPERED BY MODERATE MID-LEVEL SHEAR.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST.
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
PHFO: T3.5 - 55 KTS
NFFN: T3.0 - 45 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 53 KTS AT 270520Z
CIMSS ADT: 55 KTS AT 270600Z
CIMSS AIDT: 45 KTS AT 270600Z
CIMSS D-MINT: 52 KTS AT 270238Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 55 KTS AT 270600Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 5-10 KTS
SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
OTHER FACTORS: MODERATE MID-LEVEL WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) AND DRY MID-LEVEL AIR ALONG THE NORTHERN FLANK.
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: LOW
INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: IN THE NEAR-TERM, TC 23P (URMIL) IS FORECAST TO
TRANSIT OVER OR IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF TANNA ISLAND. AFTER
CROSSING THE ISLAND, TC 23P WILL CURVE SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN GRADIENT OF A DEEP-LAYER STR POSITIONED NORTHWEST OF
FIJI. FROM TAU 24 THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE STR
WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD, REMAINING IN PHASE WITH TC 23P,
MAINTAINING A VIGOROUS STEERING GRADIENT AND ACCELERATING URMIL
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 72. REGARDING INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM
MAINTAINS AN INTENSIFICATION TREND DESPITE VORTEX TILT INDUCED BY
MODERATE MID-LEVEL SHEAR. OROGRAPHIC INTERACTION WITH TANNA ISLAND
MAY BRIEFLY ATTENUATE INTENSIFICATION; HOWEVER, UPON RE-EMERGENCE
OVER OPEN WATER, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ACHIEVE VERTICAL COHERENCE
AND COMMENCE A MORE RAPID INTENSIFICATION PHASE. VWS IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN LOW, WHILE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW STEADILY AUGMENTS THROUGH TAU
36, FACILITATING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS. THEREAFTER, SHEAR
MAGNITUDE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE PRECIPITOUSLY AS THE SYSTEM
INTERACTS WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK. BY TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL
BE ENGULFED BY MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AS IT TRANSITS POLEWARD
OF THE 26C SST ISOTHERM, INITIATING SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION (STT)
CONCURRENT WITH RAPID WEAKENING. COMPLETION OF STT IS ANTICIPATED BY
TAU 60 AND WILL BE FINALIZED BY TAU 72.
MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC, ENSEMBLE AND ARTIFICIAL
INTELLIGENCE (AI) GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER, ONLY THE ECMWF CAPTURES THE SHORT-TERM
EASTWARD DEFLECTION OVER TANNA ISLAND, WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS DEPICTING A SOUTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY PASSING
NEAR ANEITYUM ISLAND. CROSS-TRACK SPREAD EXPANDS TO A MAXIMUM OF 95NM
AT TAU 48 BEFORE CONTRACTING SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THE JTWC FORECAST IS ALIGNED WITH THE ECMWF TRACKER, POSITIONED ON
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS MIXED; CTCX, COTC AND HWRF INDICATE A STAGNANT
INTENSITY TREND THROUGH TAU 36 WITH MODEST STRENGTHENING TO 65-70
KNOTS BY TAU 48. CONVERSELY, SHIPS GUIDANCE AND HAFS-A SUGGEST A MORE
AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPMENT, PEAKING BETWEEN 80-95 KNOTS. ADDITIONALLY,
THE FRIA, RIPA, AND RIDE RI AIDS ARE TRIGGERED, PROJECTING PEAK
INTENSITIES OF 90-120 KNOTS. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
A 30-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RI THROUGH TAU 48. THE JTWC FORECAST
REMAINS CONSERVATIVE, ALIGNING WITH SHIPS OUTPUT JUST BELOW THE
THRESHOLD FOR EXPLICIT RI. HOWEVER, THE COMPACT MORPHOLOGY OF THE
VORTEX RENDERS THE SYSTEM SUSCEPTIBLE TO HIGH-AMPLITUDE INTENSITY
FLUCTUATIONS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN

复制代码

pocketbox · 发表于 2026-2-27 16:30

Advisory Number 2 on Tropical Cyclone URMIL issued by the Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-Hazards Department,
Port Vila at 6:05pm VUT Friday 27 February 2026.

At 5:00pm local time today, Tropical Cyclone URMIL (990 hPa) Category 1 was located near 19.4S 168.6E.
Tropical Cyclone URMIL is positioned at the center of square letter I, number 10 (I,10) of the Vanuatu
tropical cyclone tracking map.  This is about 90 KM south southwest of Erromango. Winds close to the center are
estimated at 75KM/HR. In the past 6 hours, the system was moving in a southeasterly direction at 15 KM/HR.

Gale force winds of 75 KM/HR with gusts up to 105 KM/HR within 60 Nautical miles in the southeasterly quadrant and
is expected to increase in the next 12 hours.

Forecast Positions
Date and Time                      Position                Intensity
+06 hours (11pm, 27 Feb)       19.7S, 169.0E          40 KTS (75 KM/HR)
+12 hours (5am, 28 Feb)          20.1S, 169.7E          40 KTS (75 KM/HR)
+18 hours (11am, 28 Feb)       20.4S, 170.4E          40 KTS (75 KM/HR)
+24 hours (5pm, 28 Feb)          21.0S, 171.5E          40 KTS (75 KM/HR)
+36 hours (5am, 1 Mar)          22.6S, 174.3E          40 KTS (75 KM/HR)
+48 hours (5pm, 1 Mar)          25.1S, 177.9E          50 KTS (95 KM/HR)
+60 hours (5am, 2 Mar)          28.5S, 177.4W          40 KTS (75 KM/HR)
+72 hours (5pm, 2 Mar)          33.0S, 171.5W          40 KTS (55 KM/HR)

However, isolated heavy rainfalls and thunder are expected over central and southern parts of Vanuatu tonight and
is expected to conditnue tomorrow with possible flash flooding in low lying areas and areas close to river banks
including coastal flooding.

Seas will remain rough to very rough with heavy swells expected and Marine Strong Wind Warning is current for
the central and southern waters. The Severe Weather Warning for heavy rainfalls and strong wind warning is
also current for central and southern islands.

All ships, boats and fishing rafts are advised not to go out at sea over area mention until an All-Clear is
given by NDMO. NDMO advices that Blue Alert is in effective for TAFEA province. Any actions regarding the Blue
alert, contact NDMO on 22699 or 33366.

People over central and southern Vanuatu are advised to take precautions and listen to Radio Vanuatu and
other radio outlets at all times.

Our next Advisory will be issued at 12:00am or earlier if the situation changes.

This Advisory Bulletin is also available on VMGD's website: https://www.vmgd.gov.vu as well as on VMGD's facebook
page: https://www.facebook.com/vmgd.gov.vu/.

	Time (VUT)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	5 pm February 27	1	19.4S	168.6E	95
+6hr	11 pm February 27	1	19.7S	169.0E	95
+12hr	5 am February 28	1	20.1S	169.7E	95
+18hr	11 am February 28	1	20.4S	170.4E	95
+24hr	5 pm February 28	1	21.0S	171.5E	95
+36hr	5 am March 1	1	22.6S	174.3E	110
+48hr	5 pm March 1	2	25.1S	177.9E	130
+60hr	5 am March 2	1	28.5S	177.4W	130
+72hr	5 pm March 2	tropical low	33.0S	171.5W	150

pocketbox · 发表于 2026-2-27 16:30

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：徐润杰、张增海  签发：张玲  2026 年 02 月 27 日 18 时
“厄米尔”向东南方向移动

时  间: 2月27日14时（北京时，下同）

海  域: 南太平洋

命  名: “厄米尔”，URMIL

中心位置: 南纬19.3度，东经168.5度

强度等级: 热带气旋（1级）

最大风力: 8级，20米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级

中心气压: 992百帕

参考位置: 距离南太平洋瓦努阿图维拉港以南方向约180公里

变化过程: “厄米尔”过去6小时维持8级风

预报结论: 预计，“厄米尔”将以每小时18公里左右的速度向东南方向移动，强度逐渐增强。

图1  卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2026年2月27日14时00分）

pocketbox · 发表于 2026-2-27 16:50

WTNC18 NWBB 270825
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
Issued by NEW-CALEDONIA METSERVICE
at 2026-02-27 08:16 UTC
Name: tropical cyclone category 1 URMIL
Data at 2026-02-27 06:00 UTC
Latitude: 19.3 S
Longitude: 168.6 E
Location accuracy: within 20 nm
Movement toward: 128 degree
Speed of movement: 10 kt
Maximum 10-minutes wind: 40 kt
Maximum wind gust: 55 kt
Central pressure: 992 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 75 nm
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 50 nm
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 45 nm
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: X nm
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: X nm
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: X nm
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: X nm
Radius of 64-knot winds NE quadrant: X nm
Radius of 64-knot winds SE quadrant: X nm
Radius of 64-knot winds SW quadrant: X nm
Radius of 64-knot winds NW quadrant: X nm
Radius of maximum winds: 35 nm

FORECAST DATA
Date (UTC):  Location(degree):  Accuracy(nm):  Max wind(kt)
27/02/26 06UTC:  19.5 S  169.0 E:  30:  45
27/02/26 12UTC:  19.7 S  169.6 E:  40:  50
27/02/26 18UTC:  19.9 S  170.2 E:  50:  50
28/02/26 00UTC:  20.3 S  171.4 E:  60:  50
28/02/26 06UTC:  21.0 S  172.8 E:  80:  45
28/02/26 12UTC:  21.9 S  174.4 E:  90:  40
28/02/26 18UTC:  23.1 S  176.2 E:  100:  35
01/03/26 00UTC:  24.7 S  178.4 E:  110:  30
01/03/26 06UTC:  27.0 S  178.9 W:  130:  30
01/03/26 12UTC:  28.8 S  176.8 W:  140:  30
01/03/26 18UTC:  30.0 S  175.0 W:  150:  30
02/03/26 00UTC:  X  X:  X:  X

pocketbox · 发表于 2026-2-27 20:45

TC Warning Number 1 on Tropical Cyclone URMIL issued by the Vanuatu Meteorology
and Geo-Hazards Department,
Port Vila at 11:18pm VUT Friday 27 February 2026.

At 8:00pm local time today, Tropical Cyclone URMIl (990 hPa) Cat 1 was located at
19.4 degrees South 168.9 degrees East. Tropical Cyclone URMIL is
positioned at the right center of square letter I, number 10 (I,10) of the
Vanuatu Tropical Cyclone Tracking map. This is about 80 KM south of Erromango.
Tropical Cyclone URMIL is moving in the
southeasterly direction at 11 KM/HR in the past 6 hours.

Damaging Gale force winds of 90 KM/HR (50 knots) will continue to affect Tafea
PROVINCE tonight and coninuing tomorrow.

Forecast Positions
Date and Time                      Position                Intensity
+06 hours (2am, 28 Feb)          19.7S, 169.4E          40 KTS (75 KM/HR)
+12 hours (8am, 28 Feb)          20.1S, 170.2E          40 KTS (75 KM/HR)
+18 hours (2pm, 28 Feb)          20.4S, 171.1E          40 KTS (75 KM/HR)
+24 hours (8pm, 28 Feb)          20.9S, 172.3E          40 KTS (75 KM/HR)
+36 hours (8am, 1 Mar)          22.6S, 175.3E          40 KTS (75 KM/HR)
+48 hours (8pm, 1 Mar)          25.1S, 179.2E          50 KTS (95 KM/HR)
+60 hours (8am, 2 Mar)          28.0S, 176.1W          40 KTS (75 KM/HR)
+72 hours (8pm, 2 Mar)          31.1S, 170.9W          40 KTS (55 KM/HR)

Heavy rainfalls with flash flooding are expected over low lying areas and areas
close to river banks, including coastal flooding over TAFEA today and
continuing tomorrow. Very rough seas with heavy to phenomenal swells are expected
over the area mention above.

Marine strong wind warning is current for Central and southern waters of Vanuatu.
High Seas wind warning is also current for all open waters of Vanuatu. People,
including sea going vessels are advised to take extra precautions.

Office of the NDMO advises that Red Alert is now in effect for TAFE. Actions
regarding these colour alerts, contact NDMO on 22699.

The Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-Hazards Department will issue the next warning
bulletin on Tropical Cyclone URMIL at 3:00am or earlier if the situation changes.

People over TAFEA PROVINCE should listen to all Radio Outlets to get the latest
information on this system. This warning is also available on VMGD's website
www.meteo.gov.vu and facebook page: Facebook page https://www.facebook.com/vmgd.gov.vu/

	Time (VUT)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	8 pm February 27	1	19.4S	168.9E	95
+6hr	2 am February 28	1	19.7S	169.4E	95
+12hr	8 am February 28	1	20.1S	170.2E	95
+18hr	2 pm February 28	1	20.4S	171.1E	95
+24hr	8 pm February 28	1	20.9S	172.3E	95
+36hr	8 am March 1	1	22.6S	175.3E	110
+48hr	8 pm March 1	2	25.1S	179.2E	110
+60hr	8 am March 2	1	28.0S	176.1W	130
+72hr	8 pm March 2	tropical low	31.1S	170.9W	130

pocketbox · 发表于 2026-2-27 21:00

本帖最后由 pocketbox 于 2026-2-28 01:05 编辑

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A05 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 271359 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09F CENTRE 989HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4S 169.4E
AT 271200 UTC.  POSITION FAIR BASED ON EIR IMAGERY, PERIPHERAL
SURFACE REPORTS AND RADAR IMAGES. CYCLONE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT
ABOUT 08 KNOTS.  MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 45 KNOTS. WHITE GRASS AIRPORT, IMANAKA REPORTED
35KNOTS EASTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS AT 271200UTC WHICH IS
WITHIN 15 NAUTICAL MILES OF CYCLONE CENTRE.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN EAST
SEMICIRCLE
                     AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN WEST
SEMICIRCLE.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH MORE CONVECTION TO THE EAST
OF LLCC. THE SYSTEM HAS TURNED EAST-SOUTHEAST IN THE PAST HOURS. THE
SYSTEM LIES IN AN AREA OF LOW SHEAR WITH MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND MODERATE TO STRONG VORTICITY. SST IS AROUND 27-28
DEGREE CELSIUS. THE SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED EAST-SOUTHEAST BY THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. DT DVORAK ANALYSIS NOT CLEAR, MET=3.0 AND PT=3.0.
FT BASED ON PT THUS, YIELDING T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 280000 UTC 20.0S 171.2E MOV ESE AT 10 KT WITH 50
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 281200 UTC 21.0S 173.7E MOV ESE AT 12 KT WITH 55
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 010000 UTC 23.2S 177.3E MOV ESE AT 20 KT WITH 60
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 011200 UTC 26.6S 178.0W MOV SE AT 25 KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09F
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 272000UTC.

	Time (UTC)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	12 pm February 27	1	19.4S	169.4E	85
+6hr	6 pm February 27	2	19.6S	170.1E	110
+12hr	12 am February 28	2	20.0S	171.2E	140
+18hr	6 am February 28	2	20.3S	172.3E	165
+24hr	12 pm February 28	2	21.0S	173.7E	195
+36hr	12 am March 1	2	23.2S	177.3E	255
+48hr	12 pm March 1	1	26.6S	178.0W	315
+60hr	12 am March 2	1	30.1S	172.5W	405
+72hr	12 pm March 2	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A05 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
FEB 271502 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE URMIL CENTRE 989HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4S 169.4E AT
271200 UTC.  POSITION FAIR BASED ON EIR IMAGERY, PERIPHERAL SURFACE
REPORTS AND RADAR IMAGES. CYCLONE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 08
KNOTS.  MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 45 KNOTS. WHITE GRASS AIRPORT, IMANAKA REPORTED 35KNOTS
EASTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS AT 271200UTC WHICH IS WITHIN 15
NAUTICAL MILES OF CYCLONE CENTRE.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN EAST
SEMICIRCLE
                     AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN WEST
SEMICIRCLE.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH MORE CONVECTION TO THE EAST
OF LLCC. THE SYSTEM HAS TURNED EAST-SOUTHEAST IN THE PAST HOURS. THE
SYSTEM LIES IN AN AREA OF LOW SHEAR WITH MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND MODERATE TO STRONG VORTICITY. SST IS AROUND 27-28
DEGREE CELSIUS. THE SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED EAST-SOUTHEAST BY THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. DT DVORAK ANALYSIS NOT CLEAR, MET=3.0 AND PT=3.0.
FT BASED ON PT THUS, YIELDING T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 280000 UTC 20.0S 171.2E MOV ESE AT 10 KT WITH 50
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 281200 UTC 21.0S 173.7E MOV ESE AT 12 KT WITH 55
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 010000 UTC 23.2S 177.3E MOV ESE AT 20 KT WITH 60
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 011200 UTC 26.6S 178.0W MOV SE AT 25 KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09F
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 272000UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A05 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 271505 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE URMIL CENTRE 989HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR
19.4S 169.4E AT 271200 UTC.  POSITION FAIR BASED ON EIR IMAGERY,
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS AND RADAR IMAGES. CYCLONE MOVING EAST
SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 08 KNOTS.  MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR
THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 45 KNOTS. WHITE GRASS AIRPORT, IMANAKA
REPORTED 35KNOTS EASTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS AT 271200UTC
WHICH IS WITHIN 15 NAUTICAL MILES OF CYCLONE CENTRE.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN EAST
SEMICIRCLE
                     AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN WEST
SEMICIRCLE.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH MORE CONVECTION TO THE EAST
OF LLCC. THE SYSTEM HAS TURNED EAST-SOUTHEAST IN THE PAST HOURS. THE
SYSTEM LIES IN AN AREA OF LOW SHEAR WITH MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND MODERATE TO STRONG VORTICITY. SST IS AROUND 27-28
DEGREE CELSIUS. THE SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED EAST-SOUTHEAST BY THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. DT DVORAK ANALYSIS NOT CLEAR, MET=3.0 AND PT=3.0.
FT BASED ON PT THUS, YIELDING T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 280000 UTC 20.0S 171.2E MOV ESE AT 10 KT WITH 50
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 281200 UTC 21.0S 173.7E MOV ESE AT 12 KT WITH 55
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 010000 UTC 23.2S 177.3E MOV ESE AT 20 KT WITH 60
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 011200 UTC 26.6S 178.0W MOV SE AT 25 KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09F
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 272000UTC.

pocketbox · 发表于 2026-2-27 21:45

本帖最后由 pocketbox 于 2026-2-27 22:20 编辑

WTPS31 PGTW 271500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (URMIL) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (URMIL) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z --- NEAR 19.5S 169.5E
   MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
   POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
   POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
   SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S 169.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 20.0S 171.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 21.0S 174.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 23.4S 177.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 29 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 27.0S 177.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
271500Z POSITION NEAR 19.6S 170.0E. 27FEB26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P
(URMIL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 128 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT VILA,
VANUATU, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 271200Z IS 985 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
272100Z, 280300Z, 280900Z AND 281500Z.//
NNNN

WDPS31 PGTW 271500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (URMIL) WARNING NR
004//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 19.5S 169.5E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 60 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 128 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT VILA,
VANUATU
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 22 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
COMPACT SYSTEM FEATURING A SYMMETRICAL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO)
AND SPORADIC OVERSHOOTING TOPS. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) REMAINS OBSCURED BY THE CIRRUS SHIELD; FURTHERMORE, A LACK OF
CONTEMPORARY MICROWAVE OR SCATTEROMETER DATA PRECLUDES A DEFINITIVE
STRUCTURAL ANALYSIS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM WHITEGRASS AIRPORT
(TANNA ISLAND, VANUATU) HAVE REPORTED SUSTAINED EASTERLY WINDS FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS, WITH GUSTS REACHING 45 KNOTS RECENTLY. THE
CIRCULATION PERSISTS ON THE EXTREME MARGINS OF THE NEW CALEDONIA
RADAR, PROVIDING NEGLIGIBLE SUPPORT FOR PINPOINTING THE LLCC. HENCE,
THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AND IS
GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH THE MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK POSITION ESTIMATES.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, CONSISTENT
WITH THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OUTLINED BELOW
AND AN EARLIER SAR PASS WHICH REVEALED MAXIMUM WINDS OF APPROXIMATELY
65 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE, CHARACTERIZED BY
LOW DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, VIGOROUS OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND OPTIMAL SSTS,
ALTHOUGH TEMPERED BY MODERATE MID-LEVEL WESTERLY SHEAR SITUATED
BENEATH THE OUTFLOW LAYER.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SAR DATA
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED NEAR FIJI.
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
PHFO: T3.5 - 55 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 50 KTS AT 270930Z
CIMSS ADT: 61 KTS AT 271200Z
CIMSS AIDT: 50 KTS AT 271200Z
CIMSS D-MINT: 58 KTS AT 271116Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 62 KTS AT 271200Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 10-15 KTS
SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
OTHER FACTORS: MODERATE MID-LEVEL WESTERLY SHEAR.
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: LOW
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THE FORECAST HAS BEEN TRUNCATED TO 48
HOURS.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23P HAS TRACKED
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, CROSSING OVER THE
ISLAND OF TANNA WITHIN THE PAST TWO HOURS, TRAVELING ALONG THE
WESTERN FLANK OF A DEEP-LAYER STR ANCHORED NEAR FIJI. THE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE EQUATORWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, AND TC 23P
WILL MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD VECTOR. AFTER TAU 12,
THE STR WILL ELONGATE ALONG A NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST AXIS, WHILE THE
ANTICYCLONIC CORE TRANSITS SOUTHEASTWARD IN TANDEM WITH TC 23P,
INTENSIFYING THE STEERING GRADIENT. BY TAU 24, TC 23P WILL PIVOT TO A
SOUTHEASTWARD HEADING AND ACCELERATE POLEWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. REGARDING INTENSITY, HIGH-RESOLUTION MESOSCALE
MODELS SUGGEST THE VORTEX EXHIBITS A PRONOUNCED EASTWARD TILT WITH
HEIGHT INDUCED BY MODERATE MID-LEVEL SHEAR. COUPLED WITH OROGRAPHIC
INTERFERENCE DURING THE TRANSIT OF TANNA ISLAND, THE INTENSIFICATION
TREND HAS BEEN TEMPORARILY ABATED. WITH THE VORTEX NOW RE-EMERGING
OVER OPEN WATERS AND SUBSIDING SHEAR, A BURST OF INTENSIFICATION IS
FORECAST BETWEEN TAU 12 AND TAU 24, REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 80
KNOTS. POST-PEAK, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE
PRECIPITOUSLY, REACHING 30 KNOTS BY TAU 36 AND APPROXIMATELY 50 KNOTS
BY TAU 48, AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK.
SIMULTANEOUS WITH INCREASED SHEAR, A SUBSIDENT DRY AIRMASS WILL
ENTRAIN INTO THE INNER CORE BY TAU 40, SUPPRESSING FURTHER CONVECTIVE
REDEVELOPMENT. THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO TRAVERSE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
WATERS, INITIATING SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION (STT) AS EARLY AS TAU 36.
STT COMPLETION IS ANTICIPATED BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU 60.
MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC, ENSEMBLE AND ARTIFICIAL
INTELLIGENCE (AI) TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN VERY STRONG AGREEMENT FOR
THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. CROSS-TRACK SPREAD EXPANDS TO A
MAXIMUM OF 85NM AT TAU 36, WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION DEFINING THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY AND THE GEFS MEAN MARKING THE WESTERN EDGE. THE
JTWC FORECAST IS ALIGNED WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND FGNI
TRACKERS, ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE REMAINS
DIVERGENT; HWRF, COTC, AND CTCX DEPICT A STAGNANT INTENSITY TREND
THROUGH TAU 24, FORECASTING ONLY MINOR STRENGTHENING TO 65-70 KNOTS
BY TAU 36. CONVERSELY, HAFS-A, SHIPS, AND THE CONSENSUS MEAN SUGGEST
A MORE AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPMENT, PEAKING BETWEEN 75-85 KNOTS. THE JTWC
FORECAST IS POSITIONED ALONG THE CONSENSUS MEAN BUT ANTICIPATES PEAK
INTENSITY 12 HOURS PREMATURELY AND FORECASTS A MORE RAPID DECAY PHASE
THAN THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN

复制代码

pocketbox · 发表于 2026-2-27 22:15

TC Warning Number 1 on Tropical Cyclone URMIL issued by the Vanuatu Meteorology
and Geo-Hazards Department,
Port Vila at 1:09am VUT Saturday 28 February 2026.

At 11:00pm local time today, Tropical Cyclone URMIl (990 hPa) Cat 1 was located at
19.8 degrees South 169.4 degrees East. Tropical Cyclone URMIL is
positioned at the bottom center of square letter J, number 10 (J,10) of the
Vanuatu Tropical Cyclone Tracking map. This is about 125 KM south southeast of Erromango.
Tropical Cyclone URMIL is moving in the east southeast at 16 KM/HR in the past 3 hours.

Damaging Gale force winds of 90 KM/HR (50 knots) will continue to affect Tafea
PROVINCE tonight and coninuing tomorrow.

Forecast Positions
Date and Time                      Position                Intensity
+06 hours (5am, 28 Feb)          20.1S, 170.1E          40 KTS (75 KM/HR)
+12 hours (11am, 28 Feb)       20.5S, 170.9E          40 KTS (75 KM/HR)
+18 hours (5pm, 28 Feb)          20.9S, 172.0E          40 KTS (75 KM/HR)
+24 hours (11pm, 28 Feb)       21.4S, 173.1E          40 KTS (75 KM/HR)
+36 hours (11am, 1 Mar)          23.2S, 176.1E          50 KTS (95 KM/HR)
+48 hours (11pm, 1 Mar)          25.9S, 180.0E          50 KTS (95 KM/HR)
+60 hours (11am, 2 Mar)          29.2S, 175.3W          40 KTS (75 KM/HR)
+72 hours (11pm, 2 Mar)          33.0S, 169.5W          40 KTS (55 KM/HR)

Heavy rainfalls with flash flooding are expected over low lying areas and areas
close to river banks, including coastal flooding over TAFEA today and
continuing tomorrow. Very rough seas with heavy to phenomenal swells are expected
over the area mention above.

Marine strong wind warning is current for Central and southern waters of Vanuatu.
High Seas wind warning is also current for all open waters of Vanuatu. People,
including sea going vessels are advised to take extra precautions.

Office of the NDMO advises that Red Alert is now in effect for TAFE. Actions
regarding these colour alerts, contact NDMO on 22699.

The Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-Hazards Department will issue the next warning
bulletin on Tropical Cyclone URMIL at 3:00am or earlier if the situation changes.

People over TAFEA PROVINCE should listen to all Radio Outlets to get the latest
information on this system.

This warning is also available on VMGD's website
www.meteo.gov.vu and facebook page: Facebook page https://www.facebook.com/vmgd.gov.vu/

	Time (VUT)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	11 pm February 27	1	19.8S	169.4E	95
+6hr	5 am February 28	1	20.1S	170.1E	95
+12hr	11 am February 28	1	20.5S	170.9E	95
+18hr	5 pm February 28	1	20.9S	172.0E	95
+24hr	11 pm February 28	1	21.4S	173.1E	95
+36hr	11 am March 1	2	23.2S	176.1E	110
+48hr	11 pm March 1	2	25.9S	180.0E	110
+60hr	11 am March 2	1	29.2S	175.3W	130
+72hr	11 pm March 2	tropical low	33.0S	169.5W	130

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瓦努阿图以南二级热带气旋“厄米尔”(23P/09F.Urmil) - 东南行进，南太26年首个命名气旋

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