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本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2026-3-7 12:00 编辑
WTXS31 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (TWENTYSIX) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (TWENTYSIX) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 16.5S 111.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S 111.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 17.1S 110.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 17.9S 108.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 18.7S 106.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 19.2S 104.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 16.7S 111.4E. 07MAR26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S
(TWENTYSIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 372 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF
LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 070000Z IS 996 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 071500Z AND 080300Z.//
NNNN
- WDXS31 PGTW 070300
- MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
- SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (TWENTYSIX)
- WARNING NR 003//
- RMKS/
- 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
- 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
- SUMMARY:
- INITIAL POSITION: 16.5S 111.8E
- INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
- GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 372 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH,
- AUSTRALIA
- MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KTS
- SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET
- SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
- TC 26S HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS IN A
- MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY COMPETING INFLUENCES ON
- STORM STRUCTURE AND DEVELOPMENT, INCLUDING FAVORABLY STRONG WESTWARD
- OUTFLOW ALOFT AND PASSAGE OVER VERY WARM WATER SUPPORTING THE CYCLONE
- AS PERSISTENT EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER
- AIR INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION HOLD THE SYSTEM IN
- CHECK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS DEEP
- CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEARLY FULLY EXPOSED
- LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
- CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN EXPOSED CENTER EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE
- IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH
- CONFIDENCE BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AND AUTOMATED
- FIXES LISTED BELOW.
- INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE AND OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK
- CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
- CENTERED OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA
- AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
- PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
- CIMSS SATCON: 36 KTS AT 062324Z
- CIMSS ADT: 37 KTS AT 062300Z
- CIMSS AIDT: 35 KTS AT 070010Z
- CIMSS D-MINT: 28 KTS AT 062323Z
- CIMSS D-PRINT: 29 KTS AT 070010Z
- FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
- VWS: 20-25 KTS
- SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
- OUTFLOW: STRONG WESTWARD
- OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WITHIN THE EASTERN PORTION OF
- THE CIRCULATION
- ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
- INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
- INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
- INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
- 3. FORECAST REASONING.
- SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THE FORECAST TRACK HAS SHIFTED ABOUT
- 30 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON RECENTLY
- OBSERVED STORM MOTION. HOWEVER, THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
- THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
- FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 26S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE
- NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE THROUGH THE
- ENTIRETY OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. OFFSETTING ENVIRONMENTAL
- INFLUENCES INCLUDING FAVORABLE WESTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND PASSAGE
- OVER WARM WATER AND UNFAVORABLE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
- DRIER AIR ENTRAINMENT ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE NEAR-TERM,
- LEADING THE SYSTEM TO HOLD ITS PEAK INTENSITY AT THE WARNING
- THRESHOLD OF 35 KNOTS. HOWEVER, BY TAU 48, LOWER ALONG-TRACK SEA
- SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND SUSTAINED DRIER AIR ENTRAINMENT ARE EXPECTED
- TO EXERT SUFFICIENT INFLUENCE TO CAUSE DISSIPATION.
- MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK FORECASTS ARE IN GOOD
- AGREEMENT REGARDING THE OVERALL FORECAST SCENARIO, WITH THE
- GUIDANCE ENVELOPE BRACKETED BY THE NAVGEM ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE AND
- GFS AND GEFS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE AND A 150 NM SPREAD BETWEEN
- THESE SOLUTIONS AT TAU 48. THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY
- PACKED AROUND THE CONSENSUS AND THE CURRENT FORECAST, WHICH IS
- PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. MODEL INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE
- TIGHTLY PACKED AND THE CONSENSUS HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT OVER
- THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE CURRENT
- INTENSITY FORECAST.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
- TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
- INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH//
- NNNN
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楼主: Ragasa
发表于 2026-3-7 08:50
