约克角半岛四级强热带气旋“纳蕾勒”(34U/27P.Narelle) - 逐渐西行横穿澳大利亚北部 - BoM:120KT JTWC:125KT

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IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0106 UTC 18/03/2026
Name: Tropical Cyclone Narelle
Identifier: 34U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 12.1S
Longitude: 153.5E
Location Accuracy: within 25nm (45 km)
Movement Towards: west (280 deg)
Speed of Movement: 9 knots (17 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 60 knots (110 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 85 knots (155 km/h)
Central Pressure: 984 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 100 nm (185 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 90 nm (165 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 25 nm (45 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 25 nm (45 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds:   nm (  km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm (30 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.0/4.0/D2.0/24HRS STT:0.5/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1007 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 210 nm (390 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  18/0600: 12.6S 152.0E:     035 (070):  070  (130):  978
+12:  18/1200: 13.0S 150.8E:     045 (085):  075  (140):  973
+18:  18/1800: 13.4S 149.5E:     055 (100):  090  (165):  960
+24:  19/0000: 13.7S 148.2E:     055 (105):  090  (165):  960
+36:  19/1200: 13.8S 145.9E:     060 (115):  105  (195):  944
+48:  20/0000: 13.9S 143.8E:     070 (130):  105  (195):  944
+60:  20/1200: 13.9S 141.6E:     080 (145):  045  (085):  994
+72:  21/0000: 14.0S 139.1E:     090 (165):  060  (110):  985
+96:  22/0000: 14.0S 134.2E:     100 (185):  040  (075):  998
+120: 23/0000: 14.2S 129.7E:     120 (220):  030  (055): 1003
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Narelle (34U) continues to develop in the northern Coral Sea.
However, intensification has stalled somewhat in recent hours, possibly due to
Narelle's proximity to southeastern PNG islands. Position is based on visible
satellite imagery and recent ASCAT (2218 UTC) passes with good confidence.
SSMIS microwave imagery at 1742Z shows a microwave eye. No eye is visible on
visible or EIR imagery.

Dvorak analysis using a curved band pattern with a 3-hour averaged wrap of
0.9-1.2 yields a DT of 3.5-4.0, although the banding pattern in unclear. A CDO
of 90-100 with BF yields DF 4.0. A 24-hour D+ trend yields a MET of 3.5, and PT
adjusted to 4.0. FT/CI is based on PT and is 4.0. Intensity is estimated at 60
knots based on Dvorak and generally in line with objective aids. Objective
guidance at 2300 UTC unless otherwise stated (all one-minute mean); ADT 59 kn,
AidT 65 kn, DPRINT 64 kn, SATCON 64 kn (1600 UTC).  

Environmental conditions are favourable for further intensification. Narelle
lies in a region of low vertical wind shear, in the range of 5 to 10 knots, and
is expected to remain in this region with favourable low shear and good upper
outflow. Other parameters remain supportive at least until landfall, including,
warm sea surface temperatures of around 28  30  C, and generally deep moisture,
dry air is currently remaining well to the west and is unlikely to impact
development.  

Steady to rapid intensification is forecast until landfall.  The rate of
intensification may be aided from Thursday by the approach of a new upper
trough which leads to an increase in upper divergence and poleward outflow. A
category 5 peak intensity is forecast. This is expected to occur shortly before
interactions with the Queensland east coast increase, and consequently some
weakening before the centre of Narelle is anticipated. If Narelle tracks a
little further north it may maintain category 5 intensity until landfall.  

There is very good confidence in the westward tracks of Narelle, with the
subtropical ridge to the south the dominating steering mechanism. There
remains, however, some variation in how quickly Narelle moves west, and Narelle
may approach the north east Queensland coast as early as Thursday afternoon,
which is earlier than the current most likely forecast track. This uncertainty
in timing also impacts the intensification forecast, and there is a chance that
Narelle either begins to interact with land and weaken earlier, or slows and
intensifies more than forecast.

After crossing the east Queensland Coast Narelle is expected to continue to be
steered to the west by the subtropical ridge, moving back over waters of the
Gulf of Carpentaria, most likely overnight Friday or during Saturday. As
Narelle moves across the Cape York Peninsula it is likely to considerably
weaken, though is expected to remain a tropical cyclone. Once over Gulf waters,
the environment continues to be favourable and re-intensification is forecast.
There is forecast to be enough time over the warm waters of the Gulf (SSTs are
around 30  C), with light wind shear continuing, and sufficient deep moisture
for Narelle to intensify to a severe tropical cyclone again before crossing the
eastern coast of the Northern Territory.

Looking further ahead, after crossing the Northern Territory coast, Narelle is
expected to weaken below tropical cyclone intensity and continue its track
west, moving across the Top End and then the Kimberly as a tropical low.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 18/0730 UTC.

---

IDQ20023

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 5
Issued at 11:04 am EST on Wednesday 18 March 2026

Headline:
Tropical Cyclone Narelle continues to intensify in the northern Coral Sea, and is expected to bring severe impacts to Far North Queensland.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
None.

Watch Zone
Central Peninsula and Northern Tropical Coast, including Port Douglas, Lockhart River, and Weipa.

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Narelle 34U at 10:00 am AEST:
Intensity: Category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 110 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 155 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 45 kilometres of 12.1 degrees South 153.5 degrees East, estimated to be 600 kilometres northeast of Willis Island and 970 kilometres east northeast of Cooktown.

Movement: west at 17 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle (34U) is currently at category 2 intensity in the northern Coral Sea. Narelle is expected to move steadily to the west and approach the far northeast Queensland coast between Lockhart River and Port Douglas. A severe impact is likely late on Thursday or on Friday.

After crossing the northeast Queensland coast, most likely on Friday morning, Narelle is forecast to continue its westward path, moving across the Cape York Peninsula and into the Gulf of Carpentaria. As is crosses the Cape York Peninsula Narelle is likely to weaken, however, it is expected to remain a tropical cyclone.

Hazards:
VERY DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS in excess of 250 km/h are possible near the centre of Tropical Cyclone Narelle as it crosses the coast.

DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 155 km/hr are possible from south of Lockhart River to Cooktown from Thursday night.

Gales with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/hr are possible between Lockhart River and Port Douglas from Thursday.

Gales with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/hr will also possible extend across the Cape York Peninsula, including areas between Weipa and Kowanyama from Thursday afternoon.

HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible between Cape Melville and Port Douglas from Thursday evening, extending inland during Friday. LOCALLY INTENSE RAINFALL is possible between Lockhart River and Cape Melville, and also inland areas west of Coen, from Friday.

Tides will be higher than normal between Coen and Port Douglas. LARGE WAVES may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas. There is a small risk that tides may approach the highest tide of the year during Friday.

Tides in Princess Charlotte Bay may rise significantly above the normal high tide, DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING is possible for low-lying coastal areas.

Recommended Action:
- Stay informed by checking your local government s Disaster Dashboards for the latest updates.

- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit the Get Ready Queensland website www.getready.qld.gov.au

- For non-life threatening emergency assistance contact State Emergency Services (SES) online via the SES Assistance QLD App, Apple , Android, online www.132500.qld.gov.au, or call 132 500 from anywhere in Queensland.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 5:00 pm AEST Wednesday 18 March.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 210. The Bureau and the State Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (AEST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	10 am March 18	2	12.1S	153.5E	45
+6hr	4 pm March 18	3	12.6S	152.0E	70
+12hr	10 pm March 18	3	13.0S	150.8E	85
+18hr	4 am March 19	4	13.4S	149.5E	100
+24hr	10 am March 19	4	13.7S	148.2E	105
+36hr	10 pm March 19	4	13.8S	145.9E	115
+48hr	10 am March 20	4	13.9S	143.8E	130
+60hr	10 pm March 20	1	13.9S	141.6E	145
+72hr	10 am March 21	2	14.0S	139.1E	165

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全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：曹越男  签发：董 林  2026 年 03 月 18 日 10 时
“纳蕾勒”向偏西方向移动

时  间: 3月18日08时（北京时）

海  域: 澳大利亚附近海域

命  名: “纳蕾勒”，NARELLE

中心位置: 南纬12.1度，东经153.5度

强度等级: 二级热带气旋

最大风力: 11级，31米/秒，相当于我国的强热带风暴级

中心气压: 984百帕

参考位置: 距离澳大利亚昆士兰州凯恩斯东北方向约990公里

变化过程: 过去24小时，“纳蕾勒”由8级加强至11级

预报结论: 预计，“纳蕾勒”将以每小时15-20公里的速度向偏西方向移动，强度逐渐增强。



图1  卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2026年3月18日08时00分）

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WTPS31 PGTW 180300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE) WARNING NR 003   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   180000Z --- NEAR 12.4S 153.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.4S 153.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   181200Z --- 13.0S 151.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   190000Z --- 13.6S 148.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   191200Z --- 13.8S 146.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   200000Z --- 13.9S 143.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   210000Z --- 13.9S 139.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   220000Z --- 14.2S 134.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   230000Z --- 14.6S 129.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 12.6S 152.7E.
18MAR26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
512 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 180000Z IS 986 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
181500Z AND 190300Z.
//
NNNN

1. WDPS31 PGTW 180300
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE) WARNING
   
4. NR 003//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 12.4S 153.3E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 65 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 512 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 10 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 25 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A COMPACT
    
18. INNER-CORE OF RAPIDLY DEVELOPING DEEP CONVECTION, AND EVIDENCE OF A
    
19. NASCENT EYE FEATURE, ACCOMPANIED BY A CORRESPONDING WARM SPOT IN THE
    
20. ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) IMAGERY. A RECENT DROUGHT IN MICROWAVE
    
21. IMAGERY PRECLUDES AN ACCURATE ASSESSMENT OF THE VERTICAL WARM CORE
    
22. STRUCTURE; THEREFORE, THE DEGREE OF VERTICAL VORTEX TILT IS CURRENTLY
    
23. INDETERMINATE. THE SYSTEM EARLIER EXHIBITED A CENTRAL COLD COVER
    
24. (CCC) STRUCTURE, CHARACTERISTIC OF ARRESTED DEVELOPMENT, DURING WHICH
    
25. OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAINED STAGNANT FOR APPROXIMATELY 12
    
26. HOURS. HOWEVER, IN THE PAST SIX HOURS, THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
    
27. CENTER (LLCC) IS ASSESSED TO HAVE BECOME INCREASINGLY AXISYMMETRIC AS
    
28. CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO WRAP UPSHEAR, INDICATING THE ONSET OF
    
29. INTENSIFICATION. THE MOST RECENT MICROWAVE DATA ACQUIRED WAS A
    
30. 171744Z SSMIS PASS WHICH REVEALED A 37GHZ EYE FEATURE WITH A CYAN
    
31. RING, INDICATIVE OF POTENTIAL RAPID INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR-TERM.
    
32. A 172254Z ASCAT-C PASS REVEALED A VERY COMPACT INNER-CORE, WITH THE
    
33. ULTRA-HIGH RESOLUTION (UHR) VERSION INDICATING MAXIMUM WINDS OF 66
    
34. KNOTS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON
    
35. AN EXTRAPOLATION OF THE ASCAT-DERIVED CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
    
36. IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SUBJECTIVE AND
    
37. OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES NOTED BELOW, CONFIRMED BY THE ASCAT
    
38. PASS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE HIGHLY FAVORABLE OF RAPID
    
39. INTENSIFICATION (RI), WITH LOW VWS, VERY WARM SSTS, MODERATE OHC AND
    
40. STRONG OUTFLOW ALOFT.
    
41. 
    
42. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA
    
43. 
    
44. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
    
45. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) OVER NORTHEASTERN AUSTRALIA.
    
46. 
    
47. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
48.    PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
    
49.    KNES: T4.0 - 65 KTS
    
50.    ABRF: T4.0 - 65 KTS
    
51.    CIMSS ADT: 59 KTS AT 180000Z
    
52.    CIMSS AIDT: 65 KTS AT 180000Z
    
53.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 66 KTS AT 180030Z
    
54. 
    
55. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
    
56.    VWS: 10-15 KTS
    
57.    SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
    
58.    OUTFLOW: STRONG WESTWARD
    
59.    OTHER FACTORS: MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW.
    
60. 
    
61. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
62.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
63.    INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
    
64.    INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH
    
65. 
    
66. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
67. 
    
68. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
69. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
70. 
    
71. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 27P (NARELLE) REACHED
    
72. ITS MOST EQUATORWARD LATITUDE AT 1800Z AND IS NOW TRACKING
    
73. GENERALLY WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR ANCHORED
    
74. OVER NORTHEASTERN AUSTRALIA. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD AND
    
75. EXTEND NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, PLACING TC 27P ON THE
    
76. NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY, RESULTING IN A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK TAU
    
77. 24. BY TAU 36, THE TRACK FLATTENS TO A DUE WESTWARD TRAJECTORY
    
78. WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY DECELERATING AS A WEAKNESS DEVELOPS IN THE RIDGE
    
79. IN RESPONSE TO PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. LANDFALL
    
80. JUST NORTH OF PRINCESS CHARLOTTE BAY IS EXPECTED JUST AFTER TAU 48.
    
81. THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE CAPE YORK PENINSULA BY TAU 60 AND EMERGES INTO
    
82. THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA. TC 27P THEN ACCELERATES SLIGHTLY AS THE
    
83. STEERING RIDGE ENTRENCHES OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. A SECOND LANDFALL
    
84. IS EXPECTED ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF THE GULF AROUND TAU 84, WITH
    
85. THE SYSTEM CONTINUING INLAND TO THE SOUTH OF DARWIN AND MOVING OVER
    
86. THE NORTHWEST COAST BY TAU 120. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM
    
87. IS PRIMED TO INITIATE RI IMMINENTLY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
    
88. EXPECTED TO REMAIN OPTIMAL THROUGH AT LEAST TAU 36, SUPPORTING RI UP
    
89. TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF AT LEAST 115 KNOTS. AS THE SYSTEM PASSES NORTH
    
90. OF CAPE MELVILLE, THE INNER CORE WILL BE STRUCTURALLY DEGRADED AS
    
91. PERIPHERAL INFLOW BANDS INTERACT WITH THE OROGRAPHY IN AND AROUND
    
92. CAPE MELVILLE. SIMULTANEOUSLY, EASTERLY SHEAR WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
    
93. TO MODERATE LEVELS. FRICTIONAL EFFECTS AUGMENTED BY SHEAR WILL RESULT
    
94. IN VERTICAL VORTEX DISPLACEMENT BY THE TIME IT CROSSES THE CAPE YORK
    
95. PENINSULA, LEADING TO A RAPID WEAKENING PHASE, THOUGH THE SYSTEM IS
    
96. STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA AS A STRONG
    
97. TROPICAL STORM. THE DISCRETE FORECAST POINTS DEPICT A SLOWLY
    
98. WEAKENING STORM BETWEEN TAU 72 AND TAU 96, THOUGH IN REALITY THE
    
99. SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 70 KNOTS AT TAU 84, THEN
    
100. WEAKEN ONCE AGAIN AFTER MAKING LANDFALL NEAR GROOTE EYLANDT. THE
     
101. SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
     
102. PERIOD DUE TO LAND INTERACTION.
     
103. 
     
104. MODEL DISCUSSION: THE CONSENSUS PACKAGE IS IN EXCELLENT
     
105. AGREEMENT, WITH MINIMAL CROSS-TRACK SPREAD. THE NAVGEM HAS BEEN
     
106. DISCOUNTED AS A STATISTICAL OUTLIER, TRACKING THE SYSTEM ERRONEOUSLY
     
107. INTO THE RIDGE OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE
     
108. IS CONFINED TO A 70NM ENVELOPE THROUGH TAU 120. ALONG-TRACK SPREAD IS
     
109. SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE CROSS-TRACK, HOWEVER IT CONTINUES TO
     
110. CONVERGE WITH EACH MODEL RUN, NOW APPROXIMATELY 100NM BY TAU 120. THE
     
111. JTWC FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS MEAN THROUGH
     
112. THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN
     
113. GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT. ALL CONSENSUS MEMBERS AND NUMEROUS RI MODELS
     
114. SUPPORT THE PEAK INTENSITY OCCURRING AT TAU 36, BETWEEN 100-130 KNOTS
     
115. WITH STRONG AGREEMENT ON A 115 KNOT PEAK. THE POST-LANDFALL MINIMUM
     
116. IS SHOWN TO OCCUR BETWEEN TAU 60 AND TAU 72, IN A RANGE BETWEEN 45-60
     
117. KNOTS, FOLLOWED BY A SECOND PEAK IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA BETWEEN
     
118. TAU 84-96 AND A INTENSITY RANGE BETWEEN 50-80 KNOTS. THE JTWC
     
119. FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE RI AIDS THROUGH TAU 36, THEN ROUGHLY
     
120. CONSISTENT IN TREND TO THE CONSENSUS BUT PLACED ABOUT 10 KNOTS HIGHER
     
121. THROUGH TAU 120. NEARLY ALL RI MODEL AIDS HAVE BEEN TRIGGED, ALONG
     
122. WITH VERY HIGH (EXCEEDING 50 PERCENT) AI-RI PROBABILITIES, SUPPORT
     
123. THE ONSET OF RI WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
     
124. 
     
125. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
     
126.    TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
     
127.    TRACK 72-120 HR: HIGH
     
128.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH
     
129.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
     
130. NNNN

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LsfyHarold

FY-4B
动作很快

pocketbox

IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0706 UTC 18/03/2026
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle
Identifier: 34U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 12.7S
Longitude: 151.9E
Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km)
Movement Towards: west southwest (258 deg)
Speed of Movement: 12 knots (22 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 65 knots (120 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 90 knots (165 km/h)
Central Pressure: 979 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 25 nm (45 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 25 nm (45 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds: 20 nm (35 km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm (30 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 170 nm (315 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  18/1200: 13.0S 150.8E:     030 (060):  075  (140):  970
+12:  18/1800: 13.4S 149.4E:     040 (080):  090  (165):  957
+18:  19/0000: 13.7S 148.1E:     050 (095):  090  (165):  957
+24:  19/0600: 13.9S 146.9E:     050 (095):  095  (175):  952
+36:  19/1800: 13.9S 144.8E:     060 (110):  110  (205):  935
+48:  20/0600: 13.9S 142.7E:     070 (125):  060  (110):  981
+60:  20/1800: 13.9S 140.3E:     070 (135):  045  (085):  992
+72:  21/0600: 13.8S 137.8E:     080 (145):  070  (130):  974
+96:  22/0600: 13.9S 133.0E:     100 (180):  030  (055): 1000
+120: 23/0600: 14.1S 129.1E:     115 (210):  030  (055):  999
REMARKS:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle (34U) continues to develop in the northern
Coral Sea. In recent hours Narelle has moved away from the southeastern PNG
islands and also has at times shown signs of developing a brief eye. Position
is based on visible satellite imagery and microwave (ATMS at 0323 UTC) with
good confidence.

The Dvorak pattern has been difficult, thanks to transitioning from a curved
band pattern and an eye making an appearance. Dvorak analysis using an embedded
centre pattern with a B surround, and an eye pattern, LG surround, LG eye, and
adjustment of   0.5, this yields a 3-hour average DT of 4.5. A 24-hour D trend
yields a MET of 4.0, and PT adjusted to 4.5. FT/CI is based on PT and is 4.5.
Intensity is estimated at 65 knots based on earlier ASCAT-UHR at 2218 UTC. This
in line with Dvorak, and generally in line with objective aids. Objective
guidance at 0610 UTC unless otherwise stated (all one-minute mean); ADT 61 kn,
AidT 66 kn, DPRINT 74 kn, SATCON 60 kn (0530 UTC).  

Environmental conditions are favourable for further intensification. Narelle
lies in a region of low vertical wind shear, in the range of about 10 knots,
and is expected to remain in this favourable region. Other parameters remain
supportive until landfall, including, warm sea surface temperatures of around
28  30  C, and generally deep moisture, dry air is currently remaining well to
the west and is unlikely to impact development.  

Steady to rapid intensification is forecast until landfall. The rate of
intensification may be aided from Thursday by the approach of a new upper
trough which leads to an increase in upper divergence and poleward outflow. A
category 5 peak intensity is forecast. This is expected to occur shortly before
interactions with the Queensland east coast increase, and consequently some
weakening before the centre of Narelle crosses the coast is anticipated. If
Narelle tracks a little further north it may maintain category 5 intensity
until landfall.  

There is very good confidence in the westward tracks of Narelle, with the
subtropical ridge to the south the dominating steering mechanism. There
remains, however, some variation in how quickly Narelle moves west, and Narelle
may approach the north east Queensland coast as early as Thursday afternoon,
which is earlier than the current most likely forecast track. This uncertainty
in timing also impacts the intensification forecast, and there is a chance that
Narelle either begins to interact with land and weaken earlier, or slows and
intensifies more than forecast.

After crossing the east Queensland Coast Narelle is expected to continue to be
steered to the west by the subtropical ridge, moving back over waters of the
Gulf of Carpentaria, most likely overnight Friday or during Saturday. As
Narelle moves across the Cape York Peninsula it is likely to considerably
weaken, though is expected to remain a tropical cyclone. Once over Gulf waters,
the environment continues to be favourable and re-intensification is forecast.
There is forecast to be enough time over the warm waters of the Gulf (SSTs are
around 30  C), with light wind shear continuing, and sufficient deep moisture
for Narelle to intensify to a severe tropical cyclone again before crossing the
eastern coast of the Northern Territory.

Looking further ahead, after crossing the Northern Territory coast, Narelle is
expected to weaken below tropical cyclone intensity and continue its track
west, moving across the Top End and then the Kimberly as a tropical low.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 18/1330 UTC.

---

IDQ20023

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 6
Issued at 4:42 pm EST on Wednesday 18 March 2026

Headline:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle is intensifying in the northern Coral Sea, and is expected to bring severe impacts to Far North Queensland.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Lockhart River to Cape Tribulation.

Watch Zone
Cape Tribulation to Port Douglas, extending across the Central Peninsula to Weipa and Kowanyama.

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle 34U at 4:00 pm AEST:
Intensity: Category 3, sustained winds near the centre of 120 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 165 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 35 kilometres of 12.7 degrees South 151.9 degrees East, estimated to be 780 kilometres east northeast of Cooktown and 950 kilometres east of Coen.

Movement: west southwest at 22 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle (34U) is currently at category 3 intensity in the northern Coral Sea. Narelle is expected to move steadily to the west and approach the far northeast Queensland coast between Lockhart River and Port Douglas. A severe impact is likely late on Thursday or during Friday.

After crossing the northeast Queensland coast, most likely on Friday morning, Narelle is forecast to continue its westward path, moving across the Cape York Peninsula and into the Gulf of Carpentaria. As is crosses the Cape York Peninsula Narelle is likely to weaken, however, it is expected to remain a tropical cyclone. Narelle will continue to move west across the Gulf of Carpentaria, and is forecast have renewed intensification, developing again to a severe tropical cyclone before moving towards the Northern Territory.

Hazards:
VERY DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS in excess of 250 km/h are possible near the centre of Tropical Cyclone Narelle as it crosses the coast.

DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 155 km/hr are likely from south of Lockhart River to Cape Flattery from Thursday night and may extend south to Cooktown if Narelle takes a more southerly path.

Gales with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/hr are likely between Lockhart River and Cooktown from Thursday evening, and may extend south to Port Douglas if Narelle takes a more southerly path.

Gales and GUSTS may begin earlier in the warning area during Thursday if Narelle moves faster than the current forecast.

Gales with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/hr will also possibly extend across the Cape York Peninsula, including areas between Weipa and Kowanyama from Friday.

HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible between Cape Melville and Port Douglas from Thursday evening, extending northwards and to inland areas west of Coen during Friday. LOCALLY INTENSE RAINFALL is likely in an area of the Peninsula bounded by Lockhart River, Cape Flattery, Pormpuraaw, and Weipa during Friday.

Tides will be higher than normal between Coen and Port Douglas as Narelle approaches and crosses the coast. LARGE WAVES may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas. There is a small risk that tides may approach the highest tide of the year during Friday.

Tides in Princess Charlotte Bay are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING. Any coastal residents in this area are specifically warned of a possible DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone centre crosses the coast.

Once Narelle moves into the Gulf of Carpentaria, tides on the western Peninsula between Weipa and Kowanyama may be higher than normal. LARGE WAVES may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.

Recommended Action:
People between Lockhart River and Cape Tribulation should take precautions and listen to the next advice.

-IF YOUR LIFE IS IN DANGER PHONE TRIPLE ZERO (000) IMMEDIATELY.

People between Cape Tribulation to Port Douglas, extending across the Central Peninsula to Weipa and Kowanyama should stay informed and listen to the next advice.

- Stay informed by checking your local government's Disaster Dashboards for the latest updates.

- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit the Get Ready Queensland website www.getready.qld.gov.au

- For non-life threatening emergency assistance contact State Emergency Services (SES) online via the SES Assistance QLD App, Apple , Android, online www.132500.qld.gov.au, or call 132 500 from anywhere in Queensland.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 8:00 pm AEST Wednesday 18 March.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 210. The Bureau and the State Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (AEST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	4 pm March 18	3	12.7S	151.9E	35
+6hr	10 pm March 18	3	13.0S	150.8E	60
+12hr	4 am March 19	4	13.4S	149.4E	80
+18hr	10 am March 19	4	13.7S	148.1E	95
+24hr	4 pm March 19	4	13.9S	146.9E	95
+36hr	4 am March 20	5	13.9S	144.8E	110
+48hr	4 pm March 20	2	13.9S	142.7E	125
+60hr	4 am March 21	1	13.9S	140.3E	135
+72hr	4 pm March 21	3	13.8S	137.8E	145

理可的呆萌呆毛

南太經典VCDG環

Shinphoon

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：钟晖子、曹越男  签发：董 林  2026 年 03 月 18 日 18 时
“纳蕾勒”向西偏南方向移动

时  间: 3月18日14时（北京时）

海  域: 澳大利亚附近海域

命  名: “纳蕾勒”，NARELLE

中心位置: 南纬12.7度，东经151.9度

强度等级: 三级强热带气旋

最大风力: 12级，33米/秒，相当于我国的台风级

中心气压: 979百帕

参考位置: 距离澳大利亚昆士兰州凯恩斯东北方向约815公里

变化过程: 过去24小时，“纳蕾勒”由9级加强至12级

预报结论: 预计，“纳蕾勒”将以每小时20-25公里的速度向西偏南方向移动，强度逐渐增强。

图1  卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2026年3月18日14时00分）

觀雲趣

https://science.nrlmry.navy.mil/ ... 18&products=91H
F18 SSMIS 91H 91Color

pocketbox

IDQ20023

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 7
Issued at 7:53 pm EST on Wednesday 18 March 2026

Headline:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle is intensifying in the northern Coral Sea, and is expected to bring severe impacts to Far North Queensland.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Lockhart River to Cape Tribulation.

Watch Zone
Cape Tribulation to Port Douglas, extending across the Central Peninsula to Weipa and Kowanyama.

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle 34U at 7:00 pm AEST:
Intensity: Category 3, sustained winds near the centre of 150 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 205 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 35 kilometres of 12.7 degrees South 151.4 degrees East, estimated to be 730 kilometres east northeast of Cooktown and 900 kilometres east of Coen.

Movement: west southwest at 23 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle (34U) is currently at category 3 intensity in the northern Coral Sea. Narelle is expected to move steadily to the west and approach the far northeast Queensland coast between Lockhart River and Cooktown. A severe impact is likely during Friday.

After crossing the northeast Queensland coast, most likely on Friday morning, Narelle is forecast to continue its westward path. As it crosses the Cape York Peninsula Narelle is likely to weaken, however, it is expected to remain a tropical cyclone. Narelle will then continue to move west across the Gulf of Carpentaria, and is forecast to intensify to a severe tropical cyclone before impacting the Northern Territory.

Hazards:
VERY DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS in excess of 250 km/h are possible near the centre of Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle as it crosses the coast.

DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 160 km/hr are likely from south of Lockhart River to Cape Flattery from Thursday night and may extend south to Cooktown if Narelle takes a more southerly path.

Gales with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/hr are likely between Lockhart River and Cooktown from Thursday evening, and may extend south to Port Douglas if Narelle takes a more southerly path.

Gales with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/hr will also possibly extend across the Cape York Peninsula, including areas between Weipa and Kowanyama from Friday.

HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible between Cape Melville and Port Douglas from Thursday evening, extending northwards and to inland areas west of Coen during Friday. LOCALLY INTENSE RAINFALL is likely in an area of the Peninsula bounded by Lockhart River, Cape Flattery, Pormpuraaw, and Weipa during Friday.

Tides will be higher than normal between Coen and Port Douglas as Narelle approaches and crosses the coast. LARGE WAVES may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas. There is a small risk that tides may approach the highest tide of the year during Friday.

Tides in Princess Charlotte Bay are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING. Any coastal residents in this area are specifically warned of a possible DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone centre crosses the coast.

Once Narelle moves into the Gulf of Carpentaria, tides on the western Peninsula between Weipa and Kowanyama may be higher than normal. LARGE WAVES may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.

Recommended Action:
People between Lockhart River and Cape Tribulation should take precautions and listen to the next advice.

-IF YOUR LIFE IS IN DANGER PHONE TRIPLE ZERO (000) IMMEDIATELY.

People between Cape Tribulation to Port Douglas, extending across the Central Peninsula to Weipa and Kowanyama should stay informed and listen to the next advice.

- Stay informed by checking your local government s Disaster Dashboards for the latest updates.

- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit the Get Ready Queensland website www.getready.qld.gov.au

- For non-life threatening emergency assistance contact State Emergency Services (SES) online via the SES Assistance QLD App, Apple , Android, online www.132500.qld.gov.au, or call 132 500 from anywhere in Queensland.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 11:00 pm AEST Wednesday 18 March.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 210. The Bureau and the State Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (AEST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	7 pm March 18	3	12.7S	151.4E	35
+6hr	1 am March 19	4	13.1S	150.1E	55
+12hr	7 am March 19	4	13.5S	148.8E	75
+18hr	1 pm March 19	4	13.7S	147.5E	90
+24hr	7 pm March 19	4	13.7S	146.3E	95
+36hr	7 am March 20	4	13.7S	144.3E	110
+48hr	7 pm March 20	2	13.6S	142.2E	120
+60hr	7 am March 21	2	13.6S	140.0E	125
+72hr	7 pm March 21	3	13.7S	137.6E	130

LsfyHarold

FY-4B
亮白色的暴力对流