罗德里格斯岛东南热带气旋第13号“茵杜萨”(29S.Indusa) - 逐渐南下 - MFR:70KT JTWC:90KT

ygsj24

WTIO30 FMEE 030020
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/13/20252026
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 13 (INDUSA)

2.A POSITION 2026/04/03 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.0 S / 73.2 E
(FOURTEEN    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY THREE    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 24 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 65 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 35 NW: 45
48 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 0 NW: 30
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/04/03 12 UTC: 16.4 S / 72.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 165 SW: 120 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 65 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

24H: 2026/04/04 00 UTC: 19.0 S / 70.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 230 SW: 165 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 100 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 30

36H: 2026/04/04 12 UTC: 21.9 S / 69.7 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 280 SW: 140 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SW: 100 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

48H: 2026/04/05 00 UTC: 25.4 S / 69.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 250 SW: 140 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 150 SW: 95 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 35

60H: 2026/04/05 12 UTC: 29.7 S / 71.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 260 SW: 140 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 150 SW: 95 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 35

72H: 2026/04/06 00 UTC: 33.3 S / 72.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 280 SW: 185 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 150 SW: 110 NW: 110

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/04/07 00 UTC: 38.0 S / 76.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 205 SW: 140 NW: 150

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN INDUSA HAS PICKED UP
AGAIN WITHIN A LARGER AND MORE WELL-DEFINED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. THE
GCOM-W SWATH FROM 2044 UTC DOES NOT SHOW A CLEAR EYE AT 85 GHZ, BUT
THE INTENSIFICATION OF CONVECTION IN THE FOLLOWING 3 HOURS ALLOWS
INDUSA TO BE UPGRADED TO A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM. FOR THE TIME BEING,
WE ARE GIVING PRECEDENCE TO THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK-MET ANALYSIS, WHICH
IS 3.5, CORROBORATED BY THE OBJECTIVE ADT ANALYSIS. WE THEREFORE
ESTIMATE MAXIMUM AVERAGE WINDS OF 50 KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, THE SYSTEM IS STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF INDUSA, FORCING IT ONTO A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
TRACK OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. IN THE LONGER TERM, THE SYSTEM WILL
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE SOUTHWARD AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARD, TRAPPED
BETWEEN THE HIGH-PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A DEEP TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK IS LOW
AND MAINLY CONCERNS THE SYSTEM'S MOVEMENT SPEED.

REGARDING INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY BENEFITING FROM WEAK
WIND DEEP SHEAR; IT IS MOVING OVER WATERS WITH HIGH OCEANIC POTENTIAL
(SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE CLOSE TO 28AOC) BUT ITS INTENSIFICATION IS
CURRENTLY LIMITED BY A LACK OF UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE. DEEP-LEVEL
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS, WHILE
UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH THE IMPROVEMENT
OF THE OUTFLOW CHANNEL. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE THEREFORE
FAVORABLE FOR THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY, WITH A PEAK INTENSITY EXPECTED
ON SATURDAY, APRIL 4. IN THE LONGER TERM, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
ENCOUNTER STRONG NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR AND WEAKEN RAPIDLY, LOSING ITS
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BY THE START OF THE NEXT WEEK.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS.=

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：董议文、刘涛  签发：张玲  2026 年 04 月 03 日 10 时
“茵杜萨”向偏南方向移动

时  间: 3日08时（北京时，下同）

海  域: 西南印度洋

命  名: “茵杜萨”，INDUSA

中心位置: 南纬14.0度，东经73.2度

强度等级: 热带风暴

最大风力: 9级，23米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级

中心气压: 992百帕

参考位置: 距离西南印度洋毛里求斯路易港东北方向约1790公里

变化过程: 过去24小时，“茵杜萨”由7级加强成9级

预报结论: 预计，“茵杜萨”将以每小时15-20公里的速度向偏南方向移动，强度逐渐增强。



图1  卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2026年4月3日08时00分）

pocketbox

WTIO30 FMEE 030645
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/13/20252026
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 13 (INDUSA)

2.A POSITION 2026/04/03 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.2 S / 72.7 E
(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY TWO    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 13 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 24 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 185 SW: 130 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 65 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/04/03 18 UTC: 17.5 S / 71.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 250 SW: 185 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 155 SW: 110 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

24H: 2026/04/04 06 UTC: 20.2 S / 69.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 260 SW: 205 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 155 SW: 130 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

36H: 2026/04/04 18 UTC: 23.5 S / 69.5 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 270 SW: 185 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 155 SW: 110 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

48H: 2026/04/05 06 UTC: 27.6 S / 70.2 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 280 SW: 165 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 155 SW: 110 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

60H: 2026/04/05 18 UTC: 31.7 S / 71.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 295 SW: 165 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 175 SW: 110 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 35

72H: 2026/04/06 06 UTC: 35.1 S / 73.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 295 SW: 165 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 175 SW: 120 NW: 110

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/04/07 06 UTC: 41.3 S / 78.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 240 SW: 155 NW: 175

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5+

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, INDUSA'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS SHIFTED FROM AN
EMBEDDED CENTRE TO A CURVED BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE 0103Z WSFM MICROWAVE PASS CONFIRMS THE
PRESENCE OF AN EYE WITHIN THE CDO, EVEN THOUGH THE WALL WAS NOT
ENTIRELY CLOSED ON THE SOUTH-WESTERN SIDE. IN THE LATEST VISIBLE
IMAGES, THE CURVATURE APPEARS MORE CLEARLY, SUGGESTING A MORE
SUSTAINED INTENSIFICATION PHASE. IN THE ABSENCE OF ASCAT OR SAR DATA,
THE INTENSITY REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 55KT, BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN SMOS DATA (59KT AT 0109Z) AND
THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSES (PT AROUND 3.5)

IN TERMS OF TRACK, THE SYSTEM IS STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF INDUSA, FORCING IT ONTO A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TRACK
OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. IN THE LONGER TERM, THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY
ACCELERATE SOUTHWARD AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARD, TRAPPED BETWEEN THE
HIGH-PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A DEEP TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK IS LOW AND MAINLY
CONCERNS THE SYSTEM'S MOVEMENT SPEED.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY BENEFITING FROM
FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS WITH LOW WIND SHEAR AND STRONG OCEANIC
POTENTIAL SURROUNDING 20S. UPPER DIVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
BY SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE MID LATITUDE TROUGH. INDUSA IS
THEREFORE EXPECTED TO REACH ITS PEAK INTENSITY BY SATURDAY EVENING,
PROBABLY AT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE. BEYOND THAT, NORTH-WESTERLY
WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE TROUGH
APPROACHES, LEADING TO A STEADY WEAKENING. IT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BY THE START OF NEXT
WEEK.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS.

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：董议文、刘涛  签发：张玲  2026 年 04 月 03 日 18 时
“茵杜萨”向西南方向移动

时  间: 3日14时（北京时，下同）

海  域: 西南印度洋

命  名: “茵杜萨”，INDUSA

中心位置: 南纬15.2度，东经72.7度

强度等级: 强热带风暴

最大风力: 10级，28米/秒，相当于我国的强热带风暴级

中心气压: 990百帕

参考位置: 距离西南印度洋毛里求斯路易港东北方向约1700公里

变化过程: 过去24小时，“茵杜萨”由8级加强成10级

预报结论: 预计，“茵杜萨”将以每小时5公里左右的速度向西南方向移动，强度逐渐增强。



图1  卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2026年4月3日14时00分）

ygsj24

WTXS31 PGTW 030900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (INDUSA) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (INDUSA) WARNING NR 005   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   030600Z --- NEAR 15.2S 72.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S 72.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   031800Z --- 17.7S 71.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   040600Z --- 20.2S 70.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z --- 23.4S 70.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 19 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z --- 27.2S 70.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 21 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z --- 35.3S 73.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
030900Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 72.6E.
03APR26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (INDUSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 939
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 030600Z IS 995 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
032100Z AND 040900Z.
//
NNNN

1. WDXS31 PGTW 030900
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (INDUSA) WARNING NR
   
4. 005//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 15.2S 72.9E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 939 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS,
    
13. MAURITIUS
    
14.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KTS
    
15.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET
    
16. 
    
17. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
18. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
    
19. CYCLONE (TC) 29S (INDUSA) STILL STRUGGLING WITH DRY AIR INTRUSION
    
20. THROUGHOUT THE CIRCULATION PUTTING A HOLD ON ANY SIGNIFICANT
    
21. INTENSIFICATION. THE OTHERWISE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED
    
22. BY WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), LOW (5-10 KTS)
    
23. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW. DESPITE THE
    
24. COMPACT STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM, IT FAILED TO OPPOSE THE DRY AIR
    
25. ENTRAINMENT AND THEREFORE REMAINED STAGNANT AT 55 KTS OVER THE LAST 12
    
26. HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, DERIVED
    
27. FROM THE CURVATURE OF CONVECTIVE BANDING IN THE VISIBLE SATELLITE
    
28. IMAGERY LOOP AND SUPPORTED BY A 030434Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS. THE
    
29. INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KTS IS ALSO ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE,
    
30. CORROBORATED BY DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM MULTIPLE AGENCIES AND OBJECTIVE
    
31. INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.
    
32. 
    
33. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK
    
34. 
    
35. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
    
36. CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST
    
37. 
    
38. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
39.    PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
    
40.    FMEE: T3.5 - 55 KTS
    
41.    FIMP: T3.5 - 55 KTS
    
42.    CIMSS ADT: 55 KTS AT 030600Z
    
43.    CIMSS AIDT: 45 KTS AT 030500Z
    
44.    CIMSS D-MINT: 48 KTS AT 030316Z
    
45.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 47 KTS AT 030630Z
    
46. 
    
47. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
    
48.    VWS: 5-10 KTS
    
49.    SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
    
50.    OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
    
51. 
    
52. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
53.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
54.    INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
    
55.    INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
    
56. 
    
57. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
58. 
    
59. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: PEAK INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED SINCE
    
60. LAST FORECAST, FROM 90 KTS TO 70 KTS, DUE TO CONSISTENTLY LOWER
    
61. INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND LACK OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION AIDS WITHIN
    
62. THE 030600Z AID SUITE.
    
63. 
    
64. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 29S IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS TRAJECTORY
    
65. ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH
    
66. TAU 36. THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY FAVORABLE,
    
67. SUPPORTING A PERIOD OF SUSTAINED INTENSIFICATION, CONTINGENT UPON
    
68. THE CORE REMAINING INSULATED FROM DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. IF THE
    
69. SYSTEM IS NOT ABLE TO MAINTAIN A MOIST CORE AND SYMMETRICAL
    
70. STRUCTURE, INTENSIFICATION MAY BE SLOWED DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY OR
    
71. HALTED ENTIRELY. PEAK INTENSITY IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REACH 70
    
72. KTS AROUND TAU 36, IMMEDIATELY PRECEDING A RECURVATURE TOWARDS THE
    
73. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS. POST-RECURVATURE, TC INDUSA
    
74. WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL JET, INITIATING A
    
75. WEAKENING TREND AND THE ONSET OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). THE
    
76. SYNOPTIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY HOSTILE,
    
77. CHARACTERIZED BY PERSISTENT DRY AIR ADVECTION, RAPIDLY INCREASING
    
78. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, REACHING
    
79. 22-23 C BY TAU 72. AROUND THAT TIME, THE WIND FIELD OF TC 29S IS
    
80. EXPECTED TO EXPAND AND BECOME INCREASINGLY ASYMMETRIC AS CORE WIND
    
81. SPEEDS DECREASE FURTHER. TC 29S IS ANTICIPATED TO COMPLETE THE ETT
    
82. AROUND TAU 72 AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP-LAYER MID-
    
83. LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND WEAKENS TO 35 KTS.
    
84. 
    
85. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION GUIDANCE DEMONSTRATES
    
86. VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARD TO THE TRACK THROUGHOUT THE CURRENT
    
87. FORECAST PERIOD, EVIDENCED BY A MINIMAL CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF ONLY 85
    
88. NM AT TAU 72. THE OFFICIAL JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS LAID NEAR THE MULTI-
    
89. MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ISSUED
    
90. WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, POSITIONED SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE GUIDANCE MEAN,
    
91. FAVORING THE POTENTIAL FOR SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION GIVEN THE SUPPORTING
    
92. ENVIRONMENT. ALTHOUGH MODELS CONCUR ON THE GENERAL INTENSIFICATION AND
    
93. DECAY TIMELINE, A 25 KT SPREAD IN PEAK INTENSITY EXISTS. DETERMINISTIC
    
94. GFS AND STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS PROJECT A PEAK OF 60-65 KTS,
    
95. CONTRASTING WITH THE COAMPS-TC AND HAFS STILL EXPECTING AN INCREASE TO
    
96. 80-85 KTS. CONSIDERING THE LACK OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION AIDS
    
97. TRIGGERING DURING THE MOST RECENT MODEL RUN, THE OFFICIAL JTWC
    
98. INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A PEAK 5-10 KTS BELOW THE HAFS
    
99. PROJECTION, BUT SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE OVERALL CONSENSUS MEAN AND IS
    
100. ASSESSED WITH OVERALL MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
     
101. 
     
102. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
     
103.    TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
     
104.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM//
     
105. NNNN

复制代码

pocketbox

WTIO30 FMEE 031226
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/13/20252026
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 13 (INDUSA)

2.A POSITION 2026/04/03 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.5 S / 72.0 E
(SIXTEEN    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY TWO    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 16 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 987 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 22 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 185 SW: 130 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 65 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 40 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/04/04 00 UTC: 18.9 S / 70.5 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 240 SW: 175 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SW: 120 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 30

24H: 2026/04/04 12 UTC: 21.7 S / 69.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 260 SW: 175 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 165 SW: 120 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

36H: 2026/04/05 00 UTC: 25.6 S / 69.9 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 280 SW: 150 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 165 SW: 110 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

48H: 2026/04/05 12 UTC: 30.0 S / 70.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 285 SW: 150 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 165 SW: 110 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

60H: 2026/04/06 00 UTC: 33.8 S / 72.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 305 SW: 150 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 165 SW: 110 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 35

72H: 2026/04/06 12 UTC: 37.0 S / 75.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 280 SW: 150 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 150 SW: 100 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/04/07 12 UTC: 41.9 S / 84.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE INDUSA CLOUD PATTERN HAS SHIFTED BACK FROM
A CURVED BAND TO AN EMBEDDED CENTRE. THE SKETCH OF AN EYE IN VISIBLE
IMAGERY HAS DISAPPEARED. GPM AND AMSR2 MICROWAVE IMAGES SHOW A
CONSOLIDATING EYE IN 89GHZ AND ESPECIALLY IN 37GHZ, EVEN THOUGH DRY
AIR STILL APPEARS TO BE PRESENT WITHIN THE CORE. GIVEN THE
IMPROVEMENT IN MICROWAVE STRUCTURE, THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN RAISED TO
60KT, IN RELATIVE AGREEMENT WITH SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSES AND
WITHIN THE UPPER RANGE OF OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, THE SYSTEM IS STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF INDUSA, FORCING IT ONTO A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TRACK
OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. IN THE LONGER TERM, THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY
ACCELERATE SOUTHWARD AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARD, TRAPPED BETWEEN THE
HIGH-PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A DEEP TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK IS LOW AND MAINLY
CONCERNS THE SYSTEM'S MOVEMENT SPEED.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY BENEFITING FROM
FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS WITH LOW WIND SHEAR AND STRONG OCEANIC
POTENTIAL SURROUNDING 20S. UPPER DIVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
BY SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE MID LATITUDE TROUGH. INDUSA IS
THEREFORE EXPECTED TO REACH ITS PEAK INTENSITY BY SATURDAY EVENING,
PROBABLY AT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE. BEYOND THAT, NORTH-WESTERLY
WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE TROUGH
APPROACHES, LEADING TO A STEADY WEAKENING. IT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BY THE START OF NEXT
WEEK.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS.

Ragasa

WTIO30 FMEE 031824
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/13/20252026
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 13 (INDUSA)

2.A POSITION 2026/04/03 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.7 S / 71.5 E
(SEVENTEEN    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY ONE    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 22 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 240 SW: 165 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 60 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/04/04 06 UTC: 20.1 S / 70.2 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 285 SW: 250 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

24H: 2026/04/04 18 UTC: 23.4 S / 69.8 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 260 SW: 185 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

36H: 2026/04/05 06 UTC: 27.4 S / 70.2 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 305 SW: 150 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 175 SW: 110 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

48H: 2026/04/05 18 UTC: 31.7 S / 71.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 315 SW: 175 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 175 SW: 130 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 35

60H: 2026/04/06 06 UTC: 35.2 S / 73.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 280 SW: 140 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 155 SW: 100 NW: 110

72H: 2026/04/06 18 UTC: 38.4 S / 75.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 240 SW: 165 NW: 165

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/04/07 18 UTC: 43.3 S / 81.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0+

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE INDUSA CLOUD PATTERN HAS MAINTAINED AN
ARCHED SHAPE AND HAS CHANGED LITTLE. THE WSFM MICROWAVE IMAGES FROM
1335Z AND THE F16 IMAGES FROM 1408Z HAVE MADE IT POSSIBLE TO LOCATE
THE CENTRE OF THE LOWER LAYERS. THE 85 GHZ BAND SHOWS AN ALMOST
CLOSED RING, BUT AN INTRUSION OF DRY AIR FROM THE SOUTH-WEST, NEAR
THE CORE, APPEARS TO BE LIMITING INTENSIFICATION. THE DVORAK ANALYSIS
ESTIMATES A T/CI OF 4.0+ WITH A WIND OF 60 KT, WHILE OBJECTIVE
ANALYSES DO NOT EXCEED 55 KT. FOR THE TIME BEING, WE ARE MAINTAINING
THE VALUE OF 60 KT BY INERTIA WITH THE PREVIOUS ANALYSIS.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, THE SYSTEM IS STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF INDUSA, FORCING IT ONTO A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TRACK
OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS. IN THE LONGER TERM, THE SYSTEM WILL
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE SOUTHWARD AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARD, TRAPPED
BETWEEN THE HIGH-PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A DEEP TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK IS LOW
AND MAINLY CONCERNS THE SYSTEM'S MOVEMENT SPEED.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY BENEFITING FROM
FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS WITH LOW WIND SHEAR AND STRONG OCEANIC
POTENTIAL SURROUNDING 20S. UPPER DIVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
BY SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE MID LATITUDE TROUGH. INDUSA IS
THEREFORE EXPECTED TO REACH ITS PEAK INTENSITY BY SATURDAY EVENING,
PROBABLY AT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE. BEYOND THAT, NORTH-WESTERLY
WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE TROUGH
APPROACHES, LEADING TO A STEADY WEAKENING. IT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BY THE START OF NEXT
WEEK.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS.=

Ragasa

WTXS31 PGTW 032100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (INDUSA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (INDUSA) WARNING NR 006   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   031800Z --- NEAR 17.8S 71.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S 71.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   040600Z --- 20.4S 70.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 17 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z --- 23.7S 70.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 20 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z --- 27.6S 70.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 21 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z --- 31.7S 72.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
032100Z POSITION NEAR 18.5S 71.3E.
03APR26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (INDUSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 644
NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 031800Z IS 987 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
040900Z AND 042100Z.//
NNNN

1. WDXS31 PGTW 032100
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (INDUSA) WARNING
   
4. NR 006//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 17.8S 71.6E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 65 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 644 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 21 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. TC 29S HAS STEADILY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS.
    
18. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
    
19. INCREASING ORGANIZATION, INCLUDING DEVELOPMENT OF A ROBUST
    
20. CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING INTO THE CIRCULATION ON FROM THE EAST AND
    
21. APPEARANCE OF A DIMPLE NEAR THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION
    
22. CORRESPONDING TO A NASCENT EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
    
23. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 031411Z SSMIS PASS AND MULTI-AGENCY
    
24. SATELLITE FIXES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH
    
25. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AND
    
26. AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATED LISTED BELOW.
    
27. 
    
28. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK
    
29. 
    
30. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
    
31. CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST
    
32. 
    
33. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
34.    PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
    
35.    DEMS: T3.5 - 55 KTS
    
36.    FMEE: T4.0 - 65 KTS
    
37.    FIMP: T4.0 - 65 KTS
    
38.    CIMSS ADT: 55 KTS AT 031800Z
    
39.    CIMSS AIDT: 62 KTS AT 031700Z
    
40.    CIMSS D-MINT: 54 KTS AT 031543Z
    
41.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 64 KTS AT 031800Z
    
42. 
    
43. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
    
44.    VWS: 5-10 KTS
    
45.    SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
    
46.    OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
    
47. 
    
48. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
49.    INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
    
50.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
51.    INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
    
52. 
    
53. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
54. 
    
55. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
56. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
57. 
    
58. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 29S WILL CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY
    
59. POLEWARD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE THROUGH
    
60. TAU 24 AND IN THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND A DEEP-LAYER
    
61. TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THEREAFTER. ENVIRONMENTAL
    
62. CONDITIONS INCLUDING A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND LOW
    
63. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FAVOR NEAR-TERM INTENSIFICATION. ALTHOUGH THE
    
64. CURRENT FORECAST ANTICIPATES A PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS AT TAU
    
65. 12, A HIGHER PEAK IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE GIVEN THE FAVORABLE
    
66. ENVIRONMENT AND COMPACTNESS OF THE CIRCULATION. WESTERLY TO
    
67. NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL
    
68. INDUCE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BY TAU 24, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO BEGIN
    
69. ENTRAINING DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST AND INITIATING A WEAKENING
    
70. TREND. HOWEVER, FAVORABLE BAROCLINIC INTERACTION WITH THE TROUGH
    
71. WILL OFFSET THE WEAKENING TREND AND INDUCE A FAIRLY RAPID
    
72. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE COMPLETE BY TAU 48.
    
73. 
    
74. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT
    
75. AGREEMENT FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE CURRENT
    
76. FORECAST TRACK IS SITUATED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND
    
77. PREVIOUS FORECASTS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE,
    
78. INCLUDING BOTH DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS, BROADLY
    
79. INDICATE MARGINAL (5-10 KNOT) INTENSIFICATION OR A STEADY STATE
    
80. OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS FOLLOWED BY SLOW WEAKENING. RAPID
    
81. INTENSIFICATION (RI) GUIDANCE PRIMARILY INDICATES MUTED
    
82. PROBABILITIES OF RI, BUT FAVORABLE NEAR-TERM ENVIRONMENTAL
    
83. CONDITIONS AND A PRIMED STORM STRUCTURE PRESENT NOTEWORTHY
    
84. POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A BIT MORE INTENSIFICATION THAN REFLECTED IN
    
85. THE CURRENT FORECAST, CONTRIBUTING TO ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
    
86. THE INTENSITY FORECAST DESPITE BROAD AGREEMENT IN THE EXPECTED
    
87. TREND AMONG CURRENT MODEL FORECASTS.
    
88. 
    
89. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
90.    TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
    
91.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM//
    
92. NNNN

复制代码

ygsj24

WTIO30 FMEE 040054
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/13/20252026
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (INDUSA)

2.A POSITION 2026/04/04 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.2 S / 70.7 E
(NINETEEN    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 16 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 978 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 22 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 250 SW: 220 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 205 SW: 175 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 100 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/04/04 12 UTC: 21.9 S / 69.9 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 305 SW: 250 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 205 SW: 155 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

24H: 2026/04/05 00 UTC: 25.5 S / 70.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 280 SW: 185 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 185 SW: 130 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

36H: 2026/04/05 12 UTC: 29.9 S / 71.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 280 SW: 185 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 175 SW: 130 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 55 NW: 45

48H: 2026/04/06 00 UTC: 33.8 S / 72.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 295 SW: 155 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 185 SW: 120 NW: 75

60H: 2026/04/06 12 UTC: 37.5 S / 75.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 230 SW: 185 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 150 SW: 110 NW: 65

72H: 2026/04/07 00 UTC: 40.9 S / 78.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 240 SW: 185 NW: 175

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, INDUSA HAS TAKEN ON AN EYE-SHAPED CLOUD
PATTERN. FEW ELEMENTS WERE AVAILABLE TO MAKE AN ANALYSIS. THE
POSITION COULD BE DETERMINED DIRECTLY USING THE STANDARD SATELLITE
IMAGE. THE INTENSITY ANALYSIS IS BASED MAINLY ON DVORAK AND OBJECTIVE
ANALYSES, WHICH HAVE ALLOWED US TO ESTIMATE A T/CI OF 4.5 AND A
MAXIMUM WIND SPEED OF 65 KT. INDUSA IS THEREFORE CLASSIFIED AS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE 00 UTC ANALYSIS. HOWEVER, THE LATEST VISIBLE
AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT IT MAY ALREADY HAVE
REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY AND IS NOW ENTERING A STABILISATION PHASE,
OR PERHAPS EVEN A WEAKENING PHASE.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, THE SYSTEM IS STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF INDUSA, FORCING IT ONTO A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TRACK
OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. IN THE LONGER TERM, THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY
ACCELERATE SOUTHWARD AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARD, TRAPPED BETWEEN THE
HIGH-PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A DEEP TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK IS LOW AND IS SET TO
INCREASE ON MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES POST-TROPICAL.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING
MITIGATED. WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO DECREASE, BUT THE OCEANIC
POTENTIAL DECREASES RAPIDLY. SOME DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND AI PREDICT
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION, AND THE RSMC HAS CHOSEN TO FOLLOW THIS
GUIDANCE BY FORECASTING A PEAK INTENSITY AROUND MIDDAY. HOWEVER,
GIVEN THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES AND THE DECLINING OCEANIC
POTENTIAL, THE PEAK INTENSITY MAY ALREADY HAVE BEEN REACHED LAST
NIGHT. FROM SATURDAY EVENING, THE NORTH-WESTERLY WIND SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES,
LEADING TO A STEADY WEAKENING. IT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOSE
ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS.=

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：董议文、张增海  签发：许映龙  2026 年 04 月 04 日 10 时
“茵杜萨”向南偏西方向移动

时  间: 4日08时（北京时，下同）

海  域: 西南印度洋

命  名: “茵杜萨”，INDUSA

中心位置: 南纬19.2度，东经70.7度

强度等级: 热带气旋

最大风力: 12级，33米/秒，相当于我国的台风级

中心气压: 978百帕

参考位置: 距离西南印度洋毛里求斯路易港东偏北方向约1380公里

变化过程: 过去24小时，“茵杜萨”由9级加强成12级

预报结论: 预计，“茵杜萨”将以每小时25公里左右的速度向南偏西方向移动，强度先维持然后减弱。



图1  卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2026年4月4日08时00分）