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本帖最后由 pocketbox 于 2026-4-4 23:15 编辑
WTPS31 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 30P (MAILA) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 30P (MAILA) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z --- NEAR 8.9S 155.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.9S 155.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 9.0S 154.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 9.4S 154.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 9.7S 154.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 9.9S 155.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 9.7S 155.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 9.7S 155.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 10.2S 154.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 8.9S 155.0E.
04APR26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 30P (MAILA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 721 NM
NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 02
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 041200Z IS
990 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 050300Z AND 051500Z.//
NNNN
- WDPS31 PGTW 041500
- MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
- SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 30P (MAILA) WARNING NR
- 002//
- RMKS/
- 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
- 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
- SUMMARY:
- INITIAL POSITION: 8.9S 155.0E
- INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
- GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 721 NM NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA
- MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 02 KTS
- SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET
- SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
- ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP
- CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING INTO A SYMMETRICAL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
- (CDO) FEATURE. PERIODIC BURSTS OF INTENSE LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAVE
- BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE PAST TWO HOURS, INDICATIVE OF VORTICAL HOT
- TOWERS (VHTS) DEVELOPING AROUND THE ESTIMATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
- CENTER (LLCC). MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR, ESPECIALLY IN THE MID-LEVELS,
- IS EVIDENT VIA THE SHARP UPSHEAR EDGE OF THE CDO; CONSEQUENTLY, IT IS
- HIGHLY PROBABLE THAT THE LLCC IS DISPLACED TOWARDS THE EASTERN EDGE
- OF THE CDO RATHER THAN DIRECTLY BENEATH THE CONVECTIVE CORE. A LACK
- OF RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY OR SCATTEROMETER DATA PRECLUDES A HIGH
- CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT OF THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL
- INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A BLEND OF
- THE AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES NOTED
- BELOW. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
- DEVELOPMENT, WITH LOW DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM TO
- VERY WARM SSTS, HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) AND STRONG POLEWARD
- OUTFLOW.
- INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
- CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: COMPETING AND BALANCED STEERING FLOW
- WITH A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) NORTH OF THE EQUATOR AND A
- SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) OVER AUSTRALIA.
- AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
- PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
- KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
- ABRF: T2.5 - 35 KTS
- CIMSS ADT: 51 KTS AT 041140Z
- CIMSS AIDT: 40 KTS AT 041140Z
- CIMSS D-MINT: 46 KTS AT 040816Z
- CIMSS D-PRINT: 49 KTS AT 041240Z
- FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
- VWS: 10-15 KTS
- SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
- OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD
- ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
- INITIAL POSITION: LOW
- INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
- INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
- 3. FORECAST REASONING.
- SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
- THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
- FORECAST DISCUSSION: THE FORECAST FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE (30P),
- RECENTLY
- NAMED MAILA BY THE PORT MORESBY TCWC, IS CHARACTERIZED BY A COMPLEX
- STEERING ENVIRONMENT CAUSING SIGNIFICANT TRACK UNCERTAINTY. OVER THE
- FIRST 72 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, TC 30P WILL MEANDER ABOUT THE
- SOLOMON SEA, TRAPPED IN A BALANCED AND COMPETING STEERING PATTERN
- DEFINED BY A NER TO THE NORTH ALONG THE EQUATOR, AND A STR OVER
- AUSTRALIA. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLOW DRIFT BACK TOWARDS THE WEST,
- THEN A SLOW COUNTER-CLOCKWISE DRIFT BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST
- THROUGH TAU 72. AS WITH ANY STEERING PATTERN SUCH AS THIS, THE EXACT
- TRACK OF THE SYSTEM MAY DEVIATE IN UNFORESEEN WAYS BUT IN AGGREGATE,
- THE TRACK
- MOTION WILL BE ERRATIC BUT VERY SLOW. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE
- BEGINNING TO ALIGN IN DEPICTING A CHANGE IN THE STEERING PATTERN
- AFTER TAU 72 BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW IN THE ULTIMATE TRACK. THE
- FORECAST CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO COMPLETE A COUNTER-CLOCKWISE LOOP
- BY TAU 96, THEN ASSUME A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 120.
- REGARDING INTENSITY, RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) GUIDANCE HAS BEGUN
- TO TRIGGER WITH THIS MODEL RUN. ADDITIONALLY, ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
- IMAGERY DEPICTS DEVELOPMENT OF AN ARC (OUTFLOW BOUNDARY) OF
- UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS PUSHING EASTWARD FROM THE CDO, A POSSIBLE
- INDICATOR OF NEAR-TERM RI ONSET. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A RATE OF
- INTENSIFICATION JUST SHY OF RI, INCREASING THE INTENSITY 50 KNOTS
- IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. IN GENERAL, THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR
- RI, BUT THE QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION WILL OVER TIME UPWELL COOLER
- WATERS. SO IT IS A RACE AGAINST TIME TO DETERMINE HOW STRONG THE
- SYSTEM WILL GET BEFORE ERASING THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, WHICH IS
- CURRENTLY SITTING AT 125-150 KJ PER CM2. BY TAU 72, MESOSCALE MODEL
- GUIDANCE INDICATES THE COOLER WATERS WILL REACH THE SURFACE, AND
- THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN RELATIVELY QUICKLY DUE TO A LACK OF
- A ENERGY SOURCE. HOWEVER, BY TAU 120 AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE
- AWAY FROM THE UPWELLED COLD POOL, IT WILL LEVEL OFF IN INTENSITY
- AND MAY IN FACT STRENGTHEN ONCE AGAIN AS OTHER ENVIRONMENTAL
- CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE AT THAT TIME.
- MODEL DISCUSSION: AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THE FORECAST TRACK IS HIGHLY
- UNCERTAIN, AND THUS THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS ALSO HIGHLY UNCERTAIN
- DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE INTENSITY IN THIS CASE IS DRIVEN IN LARGE
- PART BY THE POSITION OF THE SYSTEM OVER A UPWELLING INDUCED COLD
- POOL. DETERMINISTIC TRACK GUIDANCE IS FRANKLY A MESS, ESPECIALLY IN
- THE LONG-RANGE FORECAST. IN THE NEAR-TERM (THROUGH TAU 72), THE
- GUIDANCE IN GENERAL SUPPORTS A COUNTER-CLOCKWISE LOOPING MOTION.
- THE GFS AND ECMWF MARK THE WESTERN-MOST OF THE MODELS, WHILE THE
- NAVGEM TRACKS THE SYSTEM UNREALISTICALLY STRAIGHT EASTWARD FROM THE
- TAU 00. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND AI TRACKERS TAKE A BALANCED
- APPROACH AND SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE OUTLIERS. BEYOND TAU
- 72 HOWEVER, THINGS GET AWKWARD. THE NAVGEM SHOWS THE CENTER PASSING
- OVER GUADALCANAL THEN TURNING SOUTHWARD, WHILE THE EC-AIFS AND AI
- CONSENSUS TAKE THE CENTER OVER THE NORTHWESTERN SOLOMON ISLANDS.
- MEANWHILE, ECMWF KEEPS THE SYSTEM QUASI-STATIONARY NOT FAR FROM ITS
- CURRENT LOCATION, AND THE GFS, AND THE GEFS RAPIDLY TRACK THE
- CENTER SOUTHWESTWARD SKIRTING THE SOUTHEAST TIP OF PAPUA NEW
- GUINEA. FINALLY, THE ECENS MEAN FOLLOWS THE GENERAL COURSE OF THE
- GFS-GEFS COMBO BUT AT A SLOWER PACE. LOOKING OUT BEYOND TAU 120,
- THE GALWEM, EGRR AND ECENS ALL DEPICT A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK,
- LENDING INCREASING CONFIDENCE TO THE LATER FORECAST POINTS THAN
- WOULD BE EXPECTED BASED ON THE TAU 120 POSITIONS. INTENSITY
- GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT. MULTIPLE RI AIDS HAVE
- TRIGGERED, ALL DEPICTING A PEAK INTENSITY BETWEEN 95-110 KNOTS,
- WHILE THE HWRF REACHES 95 KNOTS AND THE HAFS-A PEAKS AT 110 KNOTS.
- ALL OF THE GUIDANCE DEPICTS A LEVELING OFF AFTER TAU 48, THEN A
- MORE RAPID WEAKENING AFTER TAU 72, FOLLOWED BY A ANOTHER LEVELING
- OFF AFTER TAU 96. THE JTWC FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR OR JUST UNDER
- THE CONSENSUS MEAN WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
- TRACK 00-72 HR: LOW
- TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
- INTENSITY 00-72 HR: LOW
- INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
- NNNN
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楼主: qiqi
发表于 2026-4-4 20:22
