TCFA - 关岛东南93W - 7.7N 149.7E - 逐渐西行，数值支持发展 - JMA:GW

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SSD 00Z分析T1.0，06Z及12Z均维持T1.0

TXPQ23 KNES 040049
TCSWNP
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (93W)
B.  03/2330Z
C.  8.2N
D.  152.8E
E.  THREE/HIMAWARI-9
F.  T1.0/1.0
G.  IR/EIR/VIS
H.  REMARKS...GREATER THAN 2/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.0. LLCC
WELL-DEFINED. MET AND PT=1.0. FT BASED ON DT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...KONON

TXPQ23 KNES 040600
TCSWNP
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (93W)
B.  04/0530Z
C.  7.7N
D.  151.1E
E.  FIVE/HIMAWARI-9
F.  T1.0/1.0
G.  IR/EIR/VIS
H.  REMARKS...>2/10 BANDING YIELDS A DT OF 1.0. THE MET AND PT ARE
1.0. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...GATLING

TXPQ23 KNES 041202
TCSWNP
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (93W)
B.  04/1130Z
C.  8.6N
D.  151.1E
E.  THREE/HIMAWARI-9
F.  T1.0/1.0
G.  IR/EIR/SWIR
H.  REMARKS...>2/10 BANDING YIELDS A DT=1.0. THE MET AND PT AGREE. THE
FT IS BASED ON THE DT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...LEE

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ECMWF 06Z系集

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As of 8:00 PM today, 04 May 2026, a Low Pressure area (LPA 05a) is being monitored outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) and is "UNLIKELY" to develop into a tropical depression within the next 24 hours.
Meanwhile, another Low Pressure area (LPA 05b) is being monitored outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). It has a "MEDIUM" potential to develop into a tropical depression within the next 24 hours.
All are advised to monitor updates from DOST-PAGASA.

eoj329

利用00z數據資料小試牛刀一下FNV3大型系集，深化系集灰色路徑線，暫時能突出路徑分歧區域(或者與數據過於密集有關)，而現時預報情怳，路徑越偏西，強度發展並不理想，5月南海周邊地區風切情況一向不利熱帶氣旋發展，預報上對系統的轉向強度則較為可觀。

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JMA 12Z维持LPA

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1010 HPA NEAR 07N 151E WEST SLOWLY.

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昨天晚间ASCAT风场扫描

Enceladus

FNV3 0412Z 支持发展

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GFS 12Z又稍微调强，巅峰约994百帕

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SSD 18Z分析升至T1.5

TXPQ23 KNES 041823
TCSWNP
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (93W)
B.  04/1730Z
C.  9.6N
D.  150.4E
E.  THREE/HIMAWARI-9
F.  T1.5/1.5
G.  IR/EIR/PRXY
H.  REMARKS...3/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.5. CENTER RELOCATED
FARTHER N. MET AND PT=1.5. FT BASED ON MET DUE TO IRREG/PULSING
CONVECTION.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...KONON

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ECMWF 12Z系集