牙买加以南五级飓风“梅利莎”(13L.Melissa) - 风眼深邃对流强劲，加海北上为牙买加带来毁灭性灾害，西半球最强登陆飓风之一 - NHC:160KT 892mb

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：郝淑会、刘涛  签发：董林  2025 年 10 月 30 日 10 时
“梅利莎”向东北方向移动

时        间:     30日08时（北京时，下同）

海        域:    北大西洋

命        名:    “梅利莎”， MELISSA

中心位置:    北纬23.5度，西经74.8度

强度等级:   一级飓风

最大风力:    13级，41米/秒，相当于我国的台风级

中心气压:    974百帕

参考位置:   距离海地太子港西北方向约610公里

变化过程:  过去24小时“梅利莎”强度由17级减弱为13级

预报结论:   “梅利莎”将以每小时25公里左右的速度向东北方向移动，强度先加强再逐渐减弱



图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年10月30日08时00分）

ygsj24

000
WTNT43 KNHC 300256
TCDAT3

Hurricane Melissa Discussion Number  35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132025
1100 PM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025

Melissa is starting to re-intensify.  A large convective burst
continues near the center, albeit stretched from northeast to
southwest.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft found
that the pressure has fallen a few mb to 970 mb, with increased
maximum 700-mb flight-level wind to 100 kt.  While normally this
would support closer to 90-kt surface winds, those strong winds
were over 75 n mi from the center well away from the central core.  
This typically signifies a lower-than-standard wind reduction, so
the initial intensity is set to 85 kt on this advisory.  

The hurricane is moving faster tonight, with microwave and
aircraft fixes resulting in an initial motion estimate of 030/18
kt. Melissa is forecast to greatly accelerate during the next
two days due to steering flow between a trough moving through
the southeastern United States and a mid-level ridge over the
central Atlantic.  This should cause the hurricane to move away
from the Central Bahamas on Thursday morning and to the northwest
of Bermuda Thursday night.  The fast track continues into Friday,
with the then post-tropical Melissa forecast to move near the
Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland as the calendar turns to November.  
Only a slight westward adjustment was made to the NHC forecast,
near the Google DeepMind and HFIP Corrected Consensus models.

Melissa has a short window of time to intensify during the next day
or so as it remains over warm waters with moderate shear.  While
the shear greatly increases on Halloween along with cooling waters,
the forecast speed of the cyclone also jumps up along with upper-
level divergence from an approaching trough, which could lessen
the weakening rate.  Extratropical transition is anticipated in
about 48 hours due to very strong shear and cold waters.  The new
NHC intensity forecast is close to the previous one, remaining on
the high side of the guidance.


Key Messages:

1. Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos: Hurricane conditions,
life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall are expected across
portions of the southeastern and central Bahamas through overnight.
Remain sheltered until local officials deem it safe to venture out.
Tropical storm conditions, heavy rains, and significant storm surge
are expected in the Turks and Caicos Islands through overnight.

2. Bermuda: Hurricane conditions are expected in Bermuda beginning
late Thursday and continuing through Thursday night.

3. Post-storm safety:  Follow advice of local officials as you may
need to remain sheltered after the storm due to downed power lines
and flooded areas.  Ensure generators are properly ventilated and
placed outside at least 20 feet away from dwellings and garages to
avoid carbon monoxide poisoning. During clean up, be careful when
using chainsaws and power tools. Drink plenty of water to avoid heat
exhaustion.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/0300Z 24.3N  74.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
12H  30/1200Z 26.9N  72.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
24H  31/0000Z 31.7N  68.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
36H  31/1200Z 37.6N  62.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
48H  01/0000Z 44.0N  55.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H  01/1200Z 50.0N  49.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H  02/0000Z 53.0N  43.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H  03/0000Z 56.5N  29.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  04/0000Z 57.5N  25.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Blake

pocketbox

WTNT33 KNHC 300543
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 35A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132025
200 AM EDT Thu Oct 30 2025

...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.8N 73.9W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM NE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
ABOUT 755 MI...1215 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Southeastern and Central Bahamas
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Residents in the Bahamas should
remain sheltered. In Bermuda, preparations should be rushed to
completion before tropical-storm-force winds reach the island later
today.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Melissa was
located near latitude 24.8 North, longitude 73.9 West. Melissa is
moving toward the north-northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h), and the
hurricane is expected to continue accelerating northeastward during
the next few days. On the forecast track, the core of Melissa is
expected to move away from the southeastern and central Bahamas this
morning, then pass near or to the west of Bermuda later today and
tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Further strengthening is possible today before weakening
likely begins on Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions, mainly in gusts, will continue over the
southeastern and central Bahamas for the next few hours. Tropical
storm conditions, mainly in gusts, will continue in the Turks and
Caicos Islands for the next few hours.

On Bermuda, tropical storm conditions will begin later today and
hurricane conditions are expected tonight.

RAINFALL: Over the Southeastern Bahamas, storm total rainfall of 5
to 10 inches is expected through this morning, which will result
in areas of flash flooding. For the Turks and Caicos, rainfall
totals of 1 to 2 inches are expected.

Over southern Hispaniola, additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches is
expected through early this morning, with storm total local maxima
of 40 inches possible.

Across Bermuda, outer bands east of Melissa’s track may bring up to
an inch (25 mm) of rain today and tonight.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: Storm surge of 4 to 7 ft above normally dry ground is
possible in the southeastern Bahamas overnight, and minor coastal
flooding is possible in the Turks and Caicos Islands overnight.

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa will continue to affect portions
of Hispaniola, Cuba, the Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands
for the next couple of days, and will spread toward Bermuda later
today, causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

桑美和伊欧凯

pocketbox 发表于 2025-10-30 13:45
WTNT33 KNHC 300543
TCPAT3

外围云系没有碰到美国东海岸，算是幸运
转温的时候有望袭击纽芬兰岛

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：郝淑会、刘涛  签发：董林  2025 年 10 月 30 日 18 时
“梅利莎”向北偏东方向移动

时        间:     30日14时（北京时，下同）

海        域:    北大西洋

命        名:    “梅利莎”， MELISSA

中心位置:    北纬24.9度，西经73.9度

强度等级:   二级飓风

最大风力:    14级，43米/秒，相当于我国的强台风级

中心气压:    970百帕

参考位置:   距离海地太子港偏北方向约750公里

变化过程:  过去24小时“梅利莎”强度由16级减弱为13级后又加强至14级

预报结论:   “梅利莎”将以每小时33公里左右的速度向北偏东方向移动，强度先加强再逐渐减弱



图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年10月30日14时00分）

ygsj24

000
WTNT43 KNHC 300852
TCDAT3

Hurricane Melissa Discussion Number  36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132025
500 AM EDT Thu Oct 30 2025

Melissa appears slightly better organized this morning. Overnight
GMI passive microwave images showed a closed mid-level eyewall, and
there have been hints of a ragged eye feature in recent conventional
satellite images with deep convection surrounding the center. Based
on these developments, the initial intensity is raised to 90 kt for
this advisory, which is supported by a 5.0/90 kt Dvorak
classification from SAB. A comparison of the 89 and 37 GHz GMI
images indicates the vortex is tilted toward the northeast with
height, likely the result of southwesterly shear over the hurricane.
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the hurricane this morning.

Melissa is moving quickly northeastward (030/18 kt) away from the
Bahamas. An even faster northeastward motion is expected during the
next couple of days as Melissa moves within the flow between a
mid-level trough over the southeastern U.S. and a subtropical ridge
over the central Atlantic. The tightly clustered track guidance
shows the center of Melissa passing to the northwest of Bermuda
tonight, and a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the island.
Then, Melissa should pass near the southeastern tip of Newfoundland
as a strong extratropical cyclone on Friday night before moving
across the North Atlantic this weekend. No notable changes were
made to the NHC track forecast with this update.

Slight additional strengthening is possible today while Melissa
remains over warm waters in a diffluent upper-level environment.
However, the shear is forecast to become prohibitively strong later
tonight and Friday, and Melissa will reach much cooler waters during
the next 24-48 h. As a result, Melissa is expected to quickly lose
tropical characteristics once it passes Bermuda, and it is forecast
to become a strong post-tropical cyclone over the North Atlantic by
Friday night or early Saturday. The latest NHC intensity forecast
remains on the high end of the guidance envelope, and more closely
follows the global models during the extratropical phase later in
the forecast period.


Key Messages:

1. Bermuda: Hurricane conditions are expected in Bermuda tonight,
with tropical storm conditions beginning later today. Preparations
should be rushed to completion.

2. Post-storm safety:  Follow advice of local officials as you may
need to remain sheltered after the storm due to downed power lines
and flooding. Any flooding across the Bahamas is expected to subside
today. Flooding across Cuba, Jamaica, and Hispaniola could persist
for another few days. Ensure generators are properly ventilated and
placed outside at least 20 feet away from dwellings and garages to
avoid carbon monoxide poisoning. During clean up, be careful when
using chainsaws and power tools. Drink plenty of water to avoid heat
exhaustion.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/0900Z 25.8N  73.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
12H  30/1800Z 29.0N  70.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
24H  31/0600Z 34.4N  65.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
36H  31/1800Z 40.6N  59.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
48H  01/0600Z 47.0N  52.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H  01/1800Z 51.6N  45.9W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H  02/0600Z 53.9N  40.6W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H  03/0600Z 55.5N  29.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  04/0600Z 58.5N  21.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

觀雲趣

存圖
The eye was captured by
#CopernicusEU #Sentinel2.
https://x.com/CopernicusEU/status/1983496803329667278?s=19



NOAA WP-3D遇上急流

https://x.com/fl360aero/status/1983329065797890313?s=19

ygsj24

000
WTNT33 KNHC 301157
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 36A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132025
800 AM EDT Thu Oct 30 2025

...MELISSA WILL BE APPROACHING BERMUDA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...
...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.8N 72.7W
ABOUT 605 MI...980 KM SW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM NE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations should be rushed to
completion in Bermuda before tropical-storm-force winds reach the
island later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Melissa was
located by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude
26.8 North, longitude 72.7 West.  Melissa is moving toward the
north-northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h), and the hurricane is expected
to continue accelerating northeastward during the next couple of
days.  On the forecast track, the center of Melissa is expected to
pass to the northwest of Bermuda later today and tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Little change in strength is expected today, and a
weakening trend is likely to begin on Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195
miles (315 km).

The minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunters is
965 mb (28.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will begin on Bermuda later today,
with hurricane conditions expected there tonight.

RAINFALL: Over the Southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos,
an additional inch of rain is possible, with storm total maxima up
to 10 inches in the southeast Bahamas and storm total maxima up to
4 inches across the Turks and Caicos. Any residual flooding should
be waning.

Over portions of Hispaniola, additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches
is possible this morning, with storm total accumulations up to 40
inches possible in southern Hispaniola.

Across Bermuda, outer bands east of Melissa’s track may bring up t
an inch (25 mm) of rain today and tonight.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: Water levels should continue to subside through the
morning for the southeastern Bahamas.

Coastal flooding from storm surge is possible in areas of onshore
winds for Bermuda.

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa will continue to affect portions
of Hispaniola, Cuba, the Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands
during the next couple of days, and will spread toward Bermuda later
today, causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

恒信金仁

这货是迎着风切方向的 机构对最后一次巅峰估计有明显低估。猜测有机会回到C4

pocketbox

WTNT43 KNHC 301454
TCDAT3

Hurricane Melissa Discussion Number  37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132025
1100 AM EDT Thu Oct 30 2025

Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance recently investigated Melissa and
found winds in the southeast quadrant that supported a 90-kt
intensity.  The central pressure is about 965 mb, based on dropsonde
data.  The wind radii have changed only slightly during the past 12
hours.  The satellite presentation remains fairly impressive, with
an eye feature emerging on GOES 19 imagery over the past couple of
hours.  Some slight additional strengthening is possible for another
few hours while Melissa remains over marginally warm sea-surface
temperatures, but the water temperatures will rapidly decrease
tonight while wind shear rapidly increases.  As a result, Melissa is
expected to quickly lose tropical characteristics once it passes
Bermuda, and it is forecast to become a strong post-tropical cyclone
over the North Atlantic by Friday night.  The latest NHC intensity
forecast remains towards the higher end of the guidance envelope,
and more closely follows the global models during the extratropical
phase.

Melissa is accelerating toward the north-northeast, now moving 30
degrees at 21 kt. A faster motion is expected during the next
couple of days as Melissa moves within the flow between a
mid-level trough over the eastern U.S. and a subtropical ridge
over the central Atlantic.  The guidance is in excellent agreement
through the next 48 hours, until after the system makes its closest
approach to Atlantic Canada.  A Hurricane Warning remains in effect
for Bermuda, and Melissa is likely to pass to the west and
northwest of the island tonight.  Melissa should then pass near the
southeastern tip of Newfoundland as a strong extratropical cyclone
on Friday night before turning more towards the east-northeast, and
moving across the North Atlantic this weekend.  No significant
changes were made to the NHC track forecast through 48 hours, but
the track was shifted a bit to the northeast of the previous
forecast from day 3 onward.

Key Messages:

1. Bermuda: Hurricane conditions are expected in Bermuda tonight,
with tropical storm conditions beginning late this afternoon.
Preparations should be rushed to completion.

2. Post-storm safety:  Follow advice of local officials as you may
need to remain sheltered after the storm due to downed power lines
and flooding. Any flooding across the Bahamas is expected to subside
today. Flooding across Cuba, Jamaica, and Hispaniola could persist
for another few days. Ensure generators are properly ventilated and
placed outside at least 20 feet away from dwellings and garages to
avoid carbon monoxide poisoning. During clean up, be careful when
using chainsaws and power tools. Drink plenty of water to avoid heat
exhaustion.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/1500Z 27.8N  71.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
12H  31/0000Z 31.6N  68.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
24H  31/1200Z 37.5N  62.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
36H  01/0000Z 43.8N  55.8W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H  01/1200Z 49.5N  48.9W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H  02/0000Z 53.3N  43.2W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H  02/1200Z 54.7N  37.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H  03/1200Z 56.6N  26.8W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  04/1200Z 61.0N  19.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Hagen