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发表于 2026-4-17 11:24
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JTWC/04W/#34/04-17 00Z Prognostic Reasoning
本帖最后由 yhh 于 2026-4-17 22:00 编辑
WDPN31 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 0W (SINLAKU)
WARNING NR 033//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 19.5N 145.4E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 80 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 391 NM SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHEASTWARD AT 06 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 32 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TYPHOON (TY) 04W WITH A RAGGED, CLOUD-FILLED, AND POORLY-DEFINED CENTRAL EYE FEATURE, IN ADDITION TO DRY AIR WRAPPING INTO THE CORE FROM THE WEST. A 162011Z WSFM MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THAT THE WEAK INNER EYEWALL HAS COLLAPSED ALONG THE WESTERN QUADRANT WHILE THE DEEPEST CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE OUTER EYEWALL APPROXIMATELY 45 NM FROM THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MARGINAL (26-27 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, OFFSET BY THE ROBUST DIVERGENCE ALOFT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ELONGATED AND POORLY-DEFINED EYE FEATURE IN ANIMATED MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGENCY DVORAK FIXES AND CIMSS AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST.
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS
RJTD: T5.0 - 90 KTS
KNES: T4.5 - 77 KTS
CIMSS ADT: 84 KTS AT 170130Z
CIMSS AIDT: 82 KTS AT 170130Z
CIMSS DPRINT: 82 KTS AT 170130Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE
VWS: 15-20 KTS
SST: 26-27 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 04W (SINLAKU) WILL CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR CENTERED TO ITS SOUTHEAST FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST. THE ENVIRONMENT IS INCREASINGLY HOSTILE, WITH RISING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, DRY AIR ENTRAINAMENT, AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS THE STORM TRACKS FARTHER POLEWARD. AFTER TAU 24, SINLAKU IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS THE DRY AIR, SHEAR, AND COOL OCEAN SURFACE ERODE THE TROPICAL CHARACTERISICS. 04W IS EXPACTED TO BE COMPLETELY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER-LEVEL JET AND COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION NO LATER THAN TAU 48. CONSEQUENTLY, 04W WILL CONTINUE ITS STEADY TERMINAL WEAKENING TREND THROUGH COMPLETING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT THROUGH THE DURATION OF TEH FORECAST PERIOD, WITH A 60 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 48 (DISCOUNTING NAVGEM AS THE LONE OUTLIER SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE WEST OF THE MODEL ENVELOP). AS A RESULT, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE THE THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. RELIABLE INTENSITY AIDS ARE ALSO IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT 04W WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY WEAKEN UNTIL TAU 48, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
NNNn
NNNN
WDPN31 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 04W (SINLAKU)
WARNING NR 033//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 19.5N 145.4E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 80 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 391 NM SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHEASTWARD AT 06 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 32 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TYPHOON (TY)
04W WITH A RAGGED, CLOUD-FILLED, AND POORLY-DEFINED CENTRAL EYE
FEATURE, IN ADDITION TO DRY AIR WRAPPING INTO THE CORE FROM THE WEST.
A 162011Z WSFM MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THAT THE WEAK INNER EYEWALL HAS
COLLAPSED ALONG THE WESTERN QUADRANT WHILE THE DEEPEST CONVECTION IS
CONFINED TO THE OUTER EYEWALL APPROXIMATELY 45 NM FROM THE CENTER.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY MARGINAL (26-27 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW TO
MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT,
OFFSET BY THE ROBUST DIVERGENCE ALOFT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ELONGATED AND POORLY-DEFINED EYE
FEATURE IN ANIMATED MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KTS IS ASSESSED
WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGENCY DVORAK FIXES AND CIMSS
AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST.
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS
RJTD: T5.0 - 90 KTS
KNES: T4.5 - 77 KTS
CIMSS ADT: 84 KTS AT 170130Z
CIMSS AIDT: 82 KTS AT 170130Z
CIMSS DPRINT: 82 KTS AT 170130Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE
VWS: 15-20 KTS
SST: 26-27 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 04W (SINLAKU) WILL CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD
TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR CENTERED TO ITS
SOUTHEAST FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST. THE ENVIRONMENT IS
INCREASINGLY HOSTILE, WITH RISING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT, AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS THE STORM TRACKS
FARTHER POLEWARD. AFTER TAU 24, SINLAKU IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS THE DRY AIR, SHEAR, AND COOL OCEAN SURFACE
ERODE THE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. 04W IS EXPECTED TO BE COMPLETELY
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER-LEVEL JET AND COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION NO LATER THAN TAU 48. CONSEQUENTLY, 04W WILL CONTINUE ITS
STEADY TERMINAL WEAKENING TREND THROUGH COMPLETING EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION.
MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH A 60 NM
CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 48 (DISCOUNTING NAVGEM AS THE LONE OUTLIER
SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE WEST OF THE MODEL ENVELOP). AS A RESULT, THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE. RELIABLE INTENSITY AIDS ARE ALSO IN STRONG AGREEMENT
THAT 04W WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY WEAKEN UNTIL TAU 48, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
NNNN |
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楼主: ygsj24
发表于 2026-4-17 14:14
