中东太／北大各类图像自动更新暨非扰动云团专帖（2025年）

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ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave over the eastern tropical Atlantic is producing a
large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although dry
and stable air is expected to limit development during the next
couple of days, some gradual organization is possible thereafter,
and a tropical depression could form during the middle to latter
part of next week as the system moves west-northwestward to
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.



Forecaster Jelsema

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2. Off the Coast of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could develop well offshore of the coast of
southern or southwestern Mexico early next week.  Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development as
the low tracks west-northwestward around 10 to 15 mph.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

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ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave over the eastern tropical Atlantic is producing a
large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although dry
and stable air is expected to limit development during the next
couple of days, gradual development is anticipated thereafter, and a
tropical depression is likely to form during the middle to latter
part of this week as the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15
mph over the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.



Forecaster Hagen

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ZCZC HFOTWOCP ALL
TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM HST Sun Sep 14 2025

For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:

1. South and Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a weak area of low
pressure well southeast of the Hawaiian Islands have decreased since
yesterday.  Environmental conditions are forecast to become less
conducive for development during the next few days as the system
moves westward around 10 mph, and the potential for tropical cyclone
development appears to be decreasing.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.



Forecaster Jelsema/Papin

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ZCZC HFOTWOCP ALL
TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM HST Sun Sep 14 2025

For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Mario, located a few hundred miles south of the southern tip
of the Baja California Peninsula.

1. South and Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
Showers and thunderstorms remain limited and disorganized associated
with a weak area of low pressure well southeast of the Hawaiian
Islands. Environmental conditions are not expected to support
further development of this system.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.



Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Mario are issued under WMO
header WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Mario are issued under WMO
header WTPZ23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3.

Forecaster Mahoney/Bucci/Pasch

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ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Sep 14 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Mario, located a few hundred miles south of the southern tip
of the Baja California Peninsula.

1. Off the Coast of Southwestern Mexico:
An elongated trough of low pressure, currently located
south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
appear generally conducive for some gradual development of this
system, and a tropical depression could form by the latter half of
this week while it moves west-northwestward around 10 to 15 mph.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.



2. South and Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
Showers and thunderstorms remain limited and disorganized associated
with a weak area of low pressure well southeast of the Hawaiian
Islands. Environmental conditions are not expected to support
further development of this system.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Mario are issued under WMO
header WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Mario are issued under WMO
header WTPZ23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3.

Forecaster Mahoney/Bucci/Pasch

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ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave over the eastern tropical Atlantic is producing a
large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although dry
and stable air is expected to limit development during the next day
or so, gradual development is anticipated thereafter, and a tropical
depression is likely to form during the middle to latter part of
this week as the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph
over the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.



Forecaster Mahoney/Bucci/Pasch

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ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sun Sep 14 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Mario, located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.

1. Off the Coast of Southwestern Mexico:
An elongated trough of low pressure located several hundred miles
off the coast of southern Mexico is producing disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
some gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression
could form during the middle to latter part of this week as it moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central east Pacific.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.



Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Mario are issued under WMO
header WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Mario are issued under WMO
header WTPZ23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3.

Forecaster Jelsema

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ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Sep 15 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave over the central tropical Atlantic is producing a
large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although dry
and stable air is expected to limit development during the next day
or so, gradual development is anticipated thereafter, and a tropical
depression is likely to form by the middle to latter part of this
week as the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the
central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.



Forecaster Jelsema

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ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Sep 15 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave over the central tropical Atlantic is producing a
large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The
disturbance will begin to move into a more favorable environment for
development in the next couple of days, and a tropical depression is
likely to form by the middle to latter part of this week as the
system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.



Forecaster Kelly