牙买加以南五级飓风“梅利莎”(13L.Melissa) - 风眼深邃对流强劲，加海北上为牙买加带来毁灭性灾害，西半球最强登陆飓风之一 - NHC:160KT 892mb

Tanky22

看下gif能不能动 西侧高空风真的很拉 和SFMR提示的地面分布 完全不匹配

ygsj24

000
WTNT43 KNHC 310847
TCDAT3

Hurricane Melissa Discussion Number  40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132025
500 AM AST Fri Oct 31 2025

Recent satellite images show Melissa is quickly losing tropical
characteristics. The estimated low-level center is displaced well to
the west of the weakening convection associated with the system.
Decreasing satellite intensity estimates and the latest global model
wind fields support lowering the intensity to 80 kt this morning.
Earlier ASCAT data showed an expanding wind field in the southern
semicircle of Melissa, with 50-kt winds that extended up to 140 n mi
from the center in the southeastern quadrant. Large swells from
Melissa are spreading over much of the western Atlantic, resulting
in hazardous marine conditions in this region.

Melissa remains in a highly-sheared environment and will move over
rapidly cooling SSTs while completing extratropical transition
today. Based on current satellite trends and simulated satellite
imagery from the GFS and ECMWF, the updated NHC forecast now shows
Melissa becoming a hurricane-force extratropical cyclone in 12 h,
though this could occur as soon as later this morning. Gradual
weakening is forecast over the next few days, but Melissa will
remain a large and powerful extratropical cyclone as it moves over
the North Atlantic through early next week.

Melissa is racing northeastward (040/36 kt) away from Bermuda and is
expected to continue this general motion for the next day or two
within the flow ahead of an upper-level trough. The tightly
clustered track guidance agrees that the center of post-tropical
Melissa will pass near, but to the south of, the Avalon Peninsula of
Newfoundland late tonight, bringing the potential for some gusty
winds and heavy rain. Later this weekend, Melissa is forecast to
turn east-northeastward while interacting with a higher-latitude,
upper-level low over the North Atlantic. The latest NHC track
prediction remains very similar to the previous forecast, generally
following a blend of the HCCA and GDMI aids.

Key Messages:

1. Bermuda: Gusty winds over Bermuda are expected to gradually
subside this morning.

2. Post-storm safety:  Follow advice of local officials and avoid
areas of downed power lines and flooding. The flooding across Cuba,
Jamaica, and Hispaniola could persist for another day or two. Ensure
generators are properly ventilated and placed outside at least 20
feet away from dwellings and garages to avoid carbon monoxide
poisoning. During clean up, be careful when using chainsaws and
power tools. Drink plenty of water to avoid heat exhaustion.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  31/0900Z 35.9N  64.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
12H  31/1800Z 40.4N  58.9W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H  01/0600Z 46.4N  51.8W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H  01/1800Z 51.3N  45.2W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H  02/0600Z 54.1N  39.2W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H  02/1800Z 55.6N  32.9W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H  03/0600Z 56.8N  26.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H  04/0600Z 60.0N  17.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：徐润杰、刘涛  签发：王皘  2025 年 10 月 31 日 18 时
“梅利莎”向东北方向快速移动

时        间:     31日14时（北京时，下同）

海        域:    北大西洋

命        名:    “梅利莎”， MELISSA

中心位置:    北纬34.4度，西经65.5度

强度等级:   一级飓风

最大风力:    13级，41米/秒，相当于我国的台风级

中心气压:    973百帕

参考位置:   距离北大西洋百慕大群岛西北方向约220公里

变化过程:  过去24小时“梅利莎”强度由14级减弱为13级

预报结论:   “梅利莎”将以每小时60公里左右的速度向东北方向移动，强度逐渐减弱



图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年10月31日14时00分）

Tanky22

我接下来的分析 或许会颠覆所有人的认知

由于SFMR 和 TDR 极其割裂 我决定拿 TDR 和主颠 NOAA能用的数据对比一下 看下 2.5km 的主颠TDR 没测到的象限 应该对应多少FL

我画了下面的图 注意部分眼墙边上的风旗由于卡在锯齿边上严重偏低 我参考vmax 推估外加目视了锯齿外的强度 可能有一定误差

如果把中高空最强象限东北的数据去乘一个我们一般会用的 0.88-0.9系数 会得到大部分人能认同的强度  

然而问题在于 SFMR提示地面层西北比东北略强 虽然西北中高空极其薄弱 那么 这个象限应该给什么系数来对应SFMR呢

如果要对应上SFMR提示的风速分布 那么 西北象限 至少要x1.05-1.1 而且这个东西的强度 其实也完全匹配了他的形态

但飞行层最垃圾的地方其实是地面最强的地方 以及另外每个象限的系数其实能差到0.2 这两点 可能是前所未有的情况 很难让人马上接受

pocketbox

WTNT43 KNHC 311443
TCDAT3

Post-Tropical Cyclone Melissa Discussion Number  41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132025
1100 AM AST Fri Oct 31 2025

Melissa no longer possesses organized convection, and is now merging
with a warm front extending eastward and a cold front extending
toward the southwest.  Therefore, Melissa is now a post-tropical
cyclone.  Melissa still has hurricane-force winds, especially in
the southeastern semicircle, as shown in Thursday evening ASCAT data
and also shown in the latest global model fields for the current
time of 15Z.  The initial intensity is lowered slightly to 75 kt,
mainly based on forecast continuity.  Large swells from Melissa are
spreading over much of the western Atlantic, resulting in hazardous
marine conditions in this region.

The post-tropical cyclone is racing northeastward, or 40 degrees at
42 kt.  This motion should continue into Saturday within the flow
ahead of an upper-level trough.  Track guidance is in excellent
agreement that the center of post-tropical Melissa will pass near,
but to the southeast of, the Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland late
tonight, bringing the potential for some gusty winds and heavy rain.
Later this weekend, Melissa is forecast to turn east-northeastward
while interacting with a higher-latitude, upper-level low over the
North Atlantic.  Very little change has been made to the NHC track
forecast, which lies very close to the average of the GFS and ECMWF
deterministic models (GFEX).

Global models indicate that Melissa will continue to be a large and
strong extratropical cyclone for the next couple of days as it
traverses the North Atlantic.  Only gradual weakening is expected
through the weekend, with the system forecast to have
hurricane-force winds for another 24 h and still be a storm-force
cyclone in 60 hours.  The NHC intensity forecast is at the high end
of the guidance suite through 60 hours.  By early next week, global
models show the large system weakening further as it begins to join
up with a large and elongated area of low pressure over the far
northeastern Atlantic, and the system should be absorbed and
dissipated just beyond the 96-hour point.


Key Messages:

1. Post-storm safety:  Follow advice of local officials and avoid
areas of downed power lines and flooding. Ensure generators are
properly ventilated and placed outside at least 20 feet away from
dwellings and garages to avoid carbon monoxide poisoning. During
clean up, be careful when using chainsaws and power tools. Drink
plenty of water to avoid heat exhaustion.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  31/1500Z 39.0N  60.5W   75 KT  85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H  01/0000Z 43.5N  55.2W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H  01/1200Z 49.4N  48.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H  02/0000Z 53.2N  41.8W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H  02/1200Z 55.0N  35.8W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H  03/0000Z 56.2N  29.7W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H  03/1200Z 57.5N  24.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H  04/1200Z 60.5N  16.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen

理可的呆萌呆毛

...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE MELISSA NEAR 35.9N 64.0W 973 MB AT 0900 UTC OCT 31
MOVING NE OR 040 DEG AT 36 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT
GUSTS 100 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 170 NM NE
QUADRANT...230 NM SE QUADRANT...180 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 90 NM NW
QUADRANT.  SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 120 NM NE QUADRANT...360 NM
SE QUADRANT...450 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 150 NM NW QUADRANT WITH
SEAS TO 12.5 M. ELSEWHERE S OF 38N BETWEEN 59W AND 80W WINDS 20
TO 33 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 6 M.
.12 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MELISSA NEAR 40.4N 58.9W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MELISSA NEAR 46.4N 51.8W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 210 NM NE QUADRANT...290 NM SE QUADRANT...240 NM SW
QUADRANT...AND 150 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 150
NM NE QUADRANT...360 NM SE QUADRANT...780 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 90
NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 9 M. ELSEWHERE FROM 35N TO 52N
BETWEEN 40W AND 57W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 7 M...HIGHEST
NEAR 42N54W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MELISSA NEAR 54.1N 39.2W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 170 NM NE QUADRANT...330 NM SE QUADRANT...260 NM SW
QUADRANT...AND 150 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 360
NM N SEMICIRCLE...540 NM SE QUADRANT...AND 480 NM SW QUADRANT
WITH SEAS TO 11 M. ELSEWHERE FROM 51N TO 60N E OF 50W WINDS 20 TO
33 KT. SEAS 3.5 TO 7 M.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

pocketbox

風王「梅利莎」
星期二, 2025年10月28日

雖然這幾天西北太平洋的熱帶氣旋活動較為平靜，但在遙遠的北大西洋，另一個風暴「梅利莎」即將肆虐牙買加。

在加勒比海異常溫暖的有利條件下，熱帶氣旋梅利莎（Melissa）於昨晚（香港時間10月27日）迅速增強為最高級別的五級颶風[1]，並於今早（香港時間10月28日）達到其最高強度（圖一）。美國國家颶風中心資料顯示，梅利莎的中心附近最高一分鐘持續風速[2]約每小時280公里，大約相當於十分鐘持續風速約每小時260公里，風力比早前襲港的超強颱風「樺加沙」約每小時230公里更高，成為目前今年全球最強熱帶氣旋。



圖一 香港時間10月28日上午5時30分的GOES-19衛星圖像。梅利莎的結構緊密，風眼渾圓清晰。（圖片來源：美國國家海洋及大氣管理局）

美國國家颶風中心預料，梅利莎會於香港時間今晚至明早以五級颶風的強度正面吹襲牙買加，有機會成為自1851年有記錄以來登陸牙買加的最強風暴，梅利莎破壞性的風力、強降雨及風暴潮會對當地構成嚴重威脅。

近期的研究顯示自1970年代以來，大西洋熱帶氣旋和非常強烈的熱帶氣旋數目有明顯的增加趨勢[3]。根據政府間氣候變化專門委員會第六次評估報告，隨着全球暖化持續，溫暖的海洋未來會為風暴提供更多能量，預料全球強熱帶氣旋的比例、熱帶氣旋強度及與熱帶氣旋相關的降雨率將會提升。而全球暖化所引致的海平面上升亦會增加風暴潮的威脅。這意味著將來熱帶氣旋帶來的風險會上升，我們必須做好準備，應對極端天氣。

註：
[1]　熱帶海洋上產生的氣旋統稱為「熱帶氣旋」，但在不同海洋上也各自有地區性的名稱，例如西北太平洋的熱帶氣旋稱為「颱風」，而北大西洋的熱帶氣旋則稱為「颶風」。而北大西洋的颶風根據薩菲爾-辛普森颶風風力等級（Saffir-Simpson scale）劃分為一至五級，而五級颶風代表一分鐘持續風速超過每小時 250 公里，足以造成災難性破壞。

[2]　根據世界氣象組織之建議，熱帶氣旋是根據接近中心之最高持續風力加以分類的。香港天文台採用十分鐘平均風速，而美國國家颶風中心則採用一分鐘平均風速。

[3] 全球氣候變化 - 熱帶氣旋：https://www.hko.gov.hk/tc/climate_change/obs_global_tc.htm

呂旭昇

理可的呆萌呆毛

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING...
.POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MELISSA NEAR 39.0N 60.5W 973 MB AT 1500
UTC OCT 31 MOVING NE OR 040 DEG AT 42 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
75 KT GUSTS 90 KT. WITHIN 120 NM NE...180 NM SE AND S QUADRANTS
WINDS 55 TO 75 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 M. ELSEWHERE FROM 33N TO 39N
BETWEEN 58W AND 65W WINDS 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 M. OTHERWISE
FROM 31N TO 40N BETWEEN 56W AND 66W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 2.5
TO 5 M.
.12 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MELISSA NEAR 43.5N 55.2W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MELISSA NEAR 49.4N 48.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. WITHIN 180 NM SE
SEMICIRCLE WINDS 50 TO 65 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9.5 M. ELSEWHERE FROM 42N
TO 52N BETWEEN 40W AND 53W WINDS 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 M.
OTHERWISE FROM 36N TO 53N BETWEEN 36W AND 52W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT.
SEAS 3 TO 6 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MELISSA NEAR 55.0N 35.8W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT. WITHIN 300 NM S...AND
180 NM W AND NW QUADRANTS WINDS 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10.5 M.
ELSEWHERE FROM 50N TO 58N BETWEEN 35W AND 46W...AND FROM 38N TO
50N BETWEEN 35W AND 63W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 3.5 TO 7 M.

qscdefb

附件里有不同高度的TDR风场，可以看到0.5km和3km的不对称方向的确是不一样的

C5莫兰蒂

即将擦过纽芬兰东南部，也是这个季节少见的近距离袭击当地的转温TC