中东太／北大各类图像自动更新暨非扰动云团专帖（2025年）

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Oct 7 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Octave, located well to the southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California Peninsula, and on Hurricane Priscilla, located a
couple hundred miles offshore of west-central Mexico.

1. South of Southern Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms have increased in coverage in
association with a broad area of low pressure located a short
distance offshore of Guatemala.  Environmental conditions are
expected to gradually become more favorable for development of this
system over the next few days, and a tropical depression is likely
to form late this week while moving west-northwestward at 10 to 15
mph, near or parallel to the coast of southern Mexico.  Interests
along the coast of southern Mexico should monitor the progress of
this system.  Regardless of development, this system is likely to
produce periods of heavy rainfall over portions of Guatemala today,
and along the southern coast of Mexico through the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.



Forecaster Hagen

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Jerry, located in the central tropical Atlantic.

1. Southwestern Gulf:
A trough of low pressure over the Bay of Campeche is producing a
large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow
development of this system is possible before it moves inland over
southern Mexico later today or early Thursday. Regardless of
development, areas of heavy rain and gusty winds are likely across
portions of southern Mexico during the next day or so.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.



Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Jerry are issued under WMO
header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Jerry are issued under WMO
header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.

Forecaster Reinhart

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Jerry, located several hundred miles east-southeast of the
northern Leeward Islands.

1. Bay of Campeche:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue with a trough of low
pressure moving across the Bay of Campeche, nearing the Mexican
coastline. The system is expected to move inland over Mexico
tonight, and its opportunity for any development will soon be
ending. Regardless, areas of heavy rain and gusty winds are likely
across portions of southern Mexico during the next day or so.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.



2. North Atlantic:
A gale-force non-tropical area of low pressure is located several
hundred miles to the west-northwest of the Azores is producing some
modest convective activity near its center. Some additional
subtropical or tropical development of this system is possible over
the next couple of days before it moves poleward of the Gulf Steam
into a less favorable thermodynamic environment.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.



Forecaster Papin

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Jerry, located several hundred miles east-southeast of the
northern Leeward Islands.

1. North Atlantic (AL96):
A gale-force non-tropical area of low pressure located several
hundred miles to the west-northwest of the Azores is producing
limited shower activity near its center. Some subtropical or
tropical development of this system is possible over the next day or
two before it moves over even cooler waters and into a stronger
shear environment. For more information on this system, including
gale warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service and Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

2. Bay of Campeche:
A trough of low pressure associated with some disorganized showers
and thunderstorms has moved inland over southern Mexico, and
development is not expected. Heavy rain and gusty winds will
continue across portions of southern Mexico today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.



High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO
header FQNT50 LFPW and available on the web at
https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/fq/fqnt50.lfpw..txt

Forecaster Reinhart

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri Oct 10 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Raymond, located a couple of hundred miles south-southeast of
Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.

1. South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form off the coast of
southern Mexico by the middle of next week. Environmental conditions
are forecast to be conducive for some development thereafter, as
the system moves slowly northward or northwestward near or just
offshore of the coast of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.



Forecaster Jelsema

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Jerry, located several hundred miles north of the northern
Leeward Islands.

1. Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located well to the south of the Cabo Verde Islands
is producing a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Some slow development of this system is possible over the next
several days while it moves west-northwestward to northwestward at
10 to 15 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.


Forecaster Reinhart

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Jerry, located over the southwestern Atlantic about midway
between the northern Leeward Islands and Bermuda.

1. Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located well to the south-southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands is producing a broad area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms.  Some gradual development of this system is possible
over the next several days while it moves west-northwestward to
northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.



Forecaster Berg

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Oct 11 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Raymond, about 100 miles south-southeast of Cabo San Lucas,
Mexico.

1. South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form off the coast of
southern Mexico by the middle of next week. Environmental conditions
are forecast to be conducive for some development thereafter, as the
system moves slowly northward or northwestward near or just offshore
of the coast of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.


Forecaster Kelly

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Oct 11 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Raymond, centered just south of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.

1. South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form off the coast of
southern Mexico by the middle of next week. Environmental conditions
are forecast to be conducive for some development thereafter, and a
tropical depression could form late next week as the system moves
slowly northward or northwestward near or just offshore of the coast
of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.


Forecaster Hagen

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TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center has issued the final advisory on
the remnants of Jerry, located a few hundred miles south-southeast
of Bermuda.

1. Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands continues to produce a large and persistent area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions
appear conducive for some development of this system, and a tropical
depression could form next week while moving west-northwestward to
northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.



Forecaster Hagen