2604号热带气旋“森拉克”(04W.Sinlaku)机构发报专帖

yhh

ZCZC
TCPQ40 BABJ 182100
CCAA 18210 99398 11165
SINLAKU 04256 11488 12104 230// 90415
NNNN

ZCZC
WTPQ20 BABJ 182100
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
STS SINLAKU 2604 (2604) INITIAL TIME 182100 UTC
00HR 25.6N 148.8E 985HPA 25M/S
30KTS WINDS 300KM NORTHEAST
380KM SOUTHEAST
350KM SOUTHWEST
300KM NORTHWEST
MOVE NE 32KM/H
P+12HR 27.6N 151.9E 990HPA 23M/S=
NNNN

ygsj24

台風第4号(シンラコウ)
2026年04月19日06時45分発表

19日06時の実況
種別        台風
大きさ        -
強さ        -
存在地域        南鳥島近海
中心位置        北緯25度35分 (25.6度)
東経148度55分 (148.9度)
進行方向、速さ        北東 30 km/h (16 kt)
中心気圧        980 hPa
中心付近の最大風速        25 m/s (50 kt)
最大瞬間風速        35 m/s (70 kt)
15m/s以上の強風域        東側 560 km (300 NM)
西側 330 km (180 NM)

19日18時の予報
種別        台風
強さ        -
存在地域        南鳥島近海
予報円の中心        北緯27度55分 (27.9度)
東経152度00分 (152.0度)
進行方向、速さ        北東 35 km/h (18 kt)
中心気圧        980 hPa
中心付近の最大風速        25 m/s (50 kt)
最大瞬間風速        35 m/s (70 kt)
予報円の半径        45 km (25 NM)

20日06時の予報
種別        台風
強さ        -
存在地域        南鳥島近海
予報円の中心        北緯28度55分 (28.9度)
東経156度05分 (156.1度)
進行方向、速さ        東北東 35 km/h (19 kt)
中心気圧        985 hPa
中心付近の最大風速        23 m/s (45 kt)
最大瞬間風速        35 m/s (65 kt)
予報円の半径        65 km (35 NM)

21日03時の予報
種別        温帯低気圧
強さ        -
存在地域        ウェーク島近海
予報円の中心        北緯29度20分 (29.3度)
東経164度10分 (164.2度)
進行方向、速さ        東 35 km/h (20 kt)
中心気圧        992 hPa
最大風速        20 m/s (40 kt)
最大瞬間風速        30 m/s (60 kt)
予報円の半径        155 km (85 NM)

yhh

台 风 公 报
预报：黄奕武  签发：张玲  2026 年 04 月 19 日 06 时
“森拉克”将变性为温带气旋

今年第4号台风“森拉克”（强热带风暴级）的中心今天（19日）早晨5点钟位于美国关岛北偏东方向约1420公里的西北太平洋洋面上，就是北纬25.6度、东经148.8度，中心附近最大风力有10级（25米/秒），中心最低气压为985百帕，七级风圈半径为300-380公里。

预计，“森拉克”将以每小时30-35公里的速度向东北方向快速移动，将变性为温带气旋。

yhh

ZCZC
TCPQ40 BABJ 190000
CCAA 19000 99398 11165
SINLAKU 04264 11495 12114 225// 90418
NNNN

ZCZC
WTPQ20 BABJ 190000
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
STS SINLAKU 2604 (2604) INITIAL TIME 190000 UTC
00HR 26.4N 149.5E 985HPA 25M/S
30KTS WINDS 300KM NORTHEAST
380KM SOUTHEAST
350KM SOUTHWEST
300KM NORTHWEST
MOVE NE 35KM/H=
NNNN

ygsj24

台風第4号(シンラコウ)
2026年04月19日09時45分発表

19日09時の実況
種別        台風
大きさ        -
強さ        -
存在地域        南鳥島近海
中心位置        北緯26度25分 (26.4度)
東経149度25分 (149.4度)
進行方向、速さ        北東 30 km/h (16 kt)
中心気圧        980 hPa
中心付近の最大風速        25 m/s (50 kt)
最大瞬間風速        35 m/s (70 kt)
15m/s以上の強風域        南東側 560 km (300 NM)
北西側 330 km (180 NM)

19日21時の予報
種別        台風
強さ        -
存在地域        南鳥島近海
予報円の中心        北緯28度10分 (28.2度)
東経153度00分 (153.0度)
進行方向、速さ        東北東 35 km/h (18 kt)
中心気圧        985 hPa
中心付近の最大風速        23 m/s (45 kt)
最大瞬間風速        35 m/s (65 kt)
予報円の半径        55 km (30 NM)

20日09時の予報
種別        台風
強さ        -
存在地域        南鳥島近海
予報円の中心        北緯29度05分 (29.1度)
東経157度10分 (157.2度)
進行方向、速さ        東 35 km/h (19 kt)
中心気圧        990 hPa
中心付近の最大風速        20 m/s (40 kt)
最大瞬間風速        30 m/s (60 kt)
予報円の半径        80 km (42 NM)

21日09時の予報
種別        温帯低気圧
強さ        -
存在地域        ウェーク島近海
予報円の中心        北緯29度25分 (29.4度)
東経166度35分 (166.6度)
進行方向、速さ        東 40 km/h (21 kt)
中心気圧        996 hPa
最大風速        18 m/s (35 kt)
最大瞬間風速        25 m/s (50 kt)
予報円の半径        185 km (100 NM)

1. WTPQ30 RJTD 190000
   
2. RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
   
3. REASONING NO.43 FOR STS 2604 SINLAKU (2604)
   
4. 1.GENERAL COMMENTS
   
5.   STS SINLAKU IS LOCATED AT 26.4N, 149.4E. INFORMATION ON THE
   
6.   CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
   
7.   OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
   
8.   980HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 50KNOTS.
   
9.   THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
   
10.   INFLUENCE OF LOW SSTS, LOW TCHP, STRONG VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
    
11.   OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER
    
12.   THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
    
13.   ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM
    
14.   SATELLITE SCATTEROMETERS.
    
15. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
    
16.   THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
    
17.   PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
    
18.   SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC.
    
19.   ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
    
20.   OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
    
21.   GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE
    
22.   CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
    
23. 3.TRACK FORECAST
    
24.   THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
    
25.   MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
    
26.   EASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES
    
27.   UNTIL FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
    
28.   REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
    
29.   BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
    
30. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST
    
31.   THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
    
32.   INTERACTION WITH LOW SSTS, LOW TCHP AND STRONG VWS. THE SYSTEM
    
33.   WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT48. THE
    
34.   INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
    
35.   INCLUDING GSM.
    
36. =

复制代码

yhh

台 风 公 报
预报：贾莉  签发：张玲  2026 年 04 月 19 日 10 时
“森拉克”即将变性为温带气旋

今年第4号台风“森拉克”（强热带风暴级）的中心今天（19日）早晨8点钟位于美国关岛北偏东方向约1520公里的西北太平洋洋面上，就是北纬26.4度、东经149.5度，中心附近最大风力有10级（25米/秒），中心最低气压为985百帕，七级风圈半径为300-380公里。

预计，“森拉克”将以每小时35公里左右的速度向东北方向快速移动，即将变性为温带气旋。

ygsj24

No.4 SINLAKU KMA | Issued at(KST) : Sun, 19 Apr 2026, 10:00

Date(UTC)	Intensity	Maximum Sustained Wind(m/s)		Central Pressure (hPa)	Position		Moving Direction	Moving Speed(km/h)	Radius of 15 m/s(km) [Exceptional radius]	Radius of 25 m/s(km) [Exceptional radius]	Radius of 70% probability(km)
		m/s	km/h		Lat (N)	Lon (E)
Sun, 19 Apr 2026, 00:00 Analysis	2	27	97	985	26.5	149.5	NE	40	370 [W 250]	60 [W 40]	-
Sun, 19 Apr 2026, 12:00 Forecast	2	27	97	985	28.2	153.5	ENE	37	370 [W 250]	60 [W 40]	40
Mon, 20 Apr 2026, 00:00 Forecast	L	24	86	990	29.2	158.2	ENE	39			80

ygsj24

輕度颱風辛樂克
編號第 04 號
國際命名 SINLAKU

現況
2026年04月19日08時
中心位置在北緯 26.5 度，東經 149.6 度
過去移動方向 東北
過去移動時速 39公里
中心氣壓 980百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 28 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 35 公尺
七級風平均暴風半徑 250 公里
　西北側 200 公里 東北側 280 公里
　西南側 210 公里 東南側 310 公里
十級風平均暴風半徑 - 公里

預測
預測 6 小時平均移向移速為
東北東 時速 34 公里
預測 04月19日14時
中心位置在北緯 27.4 度，東經 151.4 度
中心氣壓980百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 28 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 35 公尺
七級風暴風半徑 250 公里
70%機率半徑 40 公里

預測 6-12 小時平均移向移速為
東北東 時速 40 公里
預測 04月19日20時
中心位置在北緯 28.3 度，東經 153.6 度
中心氣壓980百帕
70%機率半徑 60 公里
預測 12 小時內變性為溫帶氣旋

ygsj24

WTPN31 PGTW 190300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 04W (SINLAKU) WARNING NR 041//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (SINLAKU) WARNING NR 041   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   190000Z --- NEAR 26.5N 149.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 040 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 26.5N 149.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   191200Z --- 28.3N 153.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 22 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   200000Z --- 29.6N 158.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 22 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   201200Z --- 30.4N 163.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 26.9N 150.4E.
19APR26. TROPICAL STORM 04W (SINLAKU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 455
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 16
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 190000Z IS 983 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 30 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z, 191500Z, 192100Z AND 200300Z.//
NNNN

ygsj24

WDPN31 PGTW 190300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 04W (SINLAKU) WARNING NR
041//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 26.5N 149.5E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 455 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF IWO TO
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHEASTWARD AT 16 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 30 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A MOSTLY
EXPOSED AND BROADENING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
SHALLOW CONVECTION PRIMARILY LIMITED TO THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY.
ABUNDANT DRY AIR FROM THE WEST IS EVIDENCED BY BANDS OF
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WRAPPING INTO THE CORE OF THE LLCC AS THE
SYSTEM SLOWLY WEAKENS. A TIMELY 182321Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS REVEALED
THE SLIGHTLY ELONGATED WIND SPEED MINIMUM OF THE LLCC, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KTS
IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A FIELD OF 45-50 KTS IN
THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHWEST QUADRANTS IN THE SAME ASCAT DATA. THE
ENVIRONMENT IS ASSESSED TO BE UNFAVORABLE WITH LOW (22-23 C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, HIGH (30-35 KTS) WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS), AND SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
   PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   RCTP: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 25 KTS AT 190000Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 33 KTS AT 190000Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 40 KTS AT 190000Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 30-35 KTS
   SST: 22-23 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W (SINLAKU) CONTINUED TO
ACCELERATE IN A NORTHEASTWARD DIRECTION UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE SOUTHEAST, ADVANCING AT A RATE OF 16
KTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
ACCELERATING WITH AN INCREASINGLY EASTWARD COMPONENT THROUGH TAU 36
AS THE STEERING RIDGE MIGRATES SOUTHWESTWARD. EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT) IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFTER TAU 12 AS TS SINLAKU
BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND GAINS
BAROCLINIC FEATURES. ETT IS EXPECTED TO BE COMPLETE BY TAU 36. THE
INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO STEADILY DECREASE DUE TO UNFAVORABLE
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD, HOWEVER, THE
EXTRATROPICAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF GALE
FORCE WINDS.

MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY OF TS SINLAKU WITH A
CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 140 NM AT TAU 36. THERE IS STILL A NOTABLE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK SPEED CAUSING A 160 NM ALONG-TRACK
SPREAD. THE GOOGLE DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE MEAN IS THE FASTEST SOLUTION
WHILE JGSM REMAINS THE SLOWEST. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED
CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. ALL
INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND. THE SHIPS
SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO DECREASE MUCH FASTER THAN THE REMAINDER OF
THE GUIDANCE, WHICH HAS CAUSED THE CONSENSUS TO BE PULLED DOWN. THE
JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE HAFS-A AND HWRF
SOLUTIONS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH//
NNNN