中东太／北大各类图像自动更新暨非扰动云团专帖（2025年）

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Oct 12 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

1. South of Southern Mexico:
A large area of showers and thunderstorms, located a couple of
hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico, is associated
with an elongated area of low pressure.  Little, if any, development
is expected to occur during the next few days while it meanders well
offshore.  Toward the end of the week, environmental conditions
appear conducive for some development while the system drifts
northward or northwestward near or just offshore of the coast of
southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.



Forecaster Roberts

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ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Oct 12 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

1. South of Southern Mexico:
A large area of showers and thunderstorms, located a couple of
hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico, is associated
with an elongated area of low pressure.  Little development is
expected to occur during the next few days while it meanders well
offshore.  Towards the end of the work week, environmental
conditions appear more conducive for development, and a tropical
depression could form while the system drifts northward then
northwestward near or just offshore of the coast of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.



Forecaster Blake

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Oct 13 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

1. South of Southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure located a couple hundred miles
south-southwest of Guatemala is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
development during the latter half of the week, and a tropical
depression could form as the system drifts northward, then
northwestward, near or just offshore of the southern coast of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.



Forecaster Gibbs

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Tue Oct 14 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

1. South of Southern Mexico (EP91):
A broad area of low pressure is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms near the coast of southern
Mexico and portions of Central America. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression
could form late this week or over the weekend. This system is
expected to move little during the next few days, but a slow
northwestward motion near the coast of southern and southwestern
Mexico is expected by the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.



Forecaster Gibbs

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. East of the Windward Islands into the Caribbean Sea:
A tropical wave currently located over the central tropical Atlantic
is associated with a large area of showers and thunderstorms.  Some
gradual development of this system is possible over the next several
days as it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph. Regardless of
development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible as the
system moves across the Windward Islands late this weekend and
enters the Caribbean Sea by the early to middle part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.



2. North Atlantic:
A non-tropical area of low pressure is currently developing several
hundred miles to the south of of Nova Scotia, Canada. This system is
expected to drop southeastward and then turn northeastward by this
weekend, and some subtropical or tropical development could occur
while the system moves over the Gulf Stream to the northeast of
Bermuda. By early next week, the system will move further
northeastward into colder waters, ending its chances for
development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.



Forecaster Papin

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. East of the Windward Islands and the Caribbean Sea:
A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic around
1000 miles east of the Windward Islands continues to produce a large
area of showers and thunderstorms.  Gradual development of this
system is possible over the next several days while it moves
generally westward at 15 to 20 mph.  Regardless of development, this
system is expected to bring heavy rainfall and gusty winds to the
Windward Islands late this weekend and then move across the
Caribbean Sea much of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.



2. North Atlantic:
A non-tropical area of low pressure is located well off the coast of
the Northeast United States. There is a slight chance that the
system could develop some subtropical characteristics during the
weekend before it turns northeastward over cooler waters by early
next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.



Forecaster Kelly

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Oct 18 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

1. Central East Pacific:
A surface trough located a couple of hundred miles offshore of
Central America is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Slow development of this system is possible over the next several
days as it moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.



Forecaster Reinhart

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ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. East of the Windward Islands and the Caribbean Sea (AL98):
A tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Windward
Islands continues to produce a broad area of showers and
thunderstorms.  This system is expected to move quickly westward at
20 to 25 mph, crossing the Windward Islands during the next day or
so.  By the middle to latter part of next week, environmental
conditions could become more favorable for development, and a
tropical depression could form while the system slows down over the
central Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, this system is
expected to bring heavy rainfall and gusty winds to the Windward
Islands Sunday into Monday morning.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

2. North Atlantic:
A non-tropical, complex area of low pressure is located several
hundred miles northeast of Bermuda.  Further development of this
system is not expected due to cooling ocean waters while it moves
northeastward over the North Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.



Forecaster Bucci/Reinhart

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Oct 19 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

1. Central East Pacific:
A surface trough located a couple hundred miles offshore of Central
America is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for slow development of
this system, and a tropical depression could form by the latter
portion of this week as it moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.



Forecaster Hagen

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ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Oct 19 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

1. Central East Pacific:
A surface trough located a couple of hundred miles southwest of
Guatemala is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for slow development of
this system, and a tropical depression could form by the latter
portion of this week as it moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.



Forecaster Jelsema