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JTWC：REMAINS LOW
ABPW10 PGTW 130600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/130600Z-140600ZMAY2025//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
10.4S 155.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.2S 156.4E, APPROXIMATELY 236 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 130251Z ATMS MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT AN
ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FRAGMENTED OUTER CONVECTIVE
BANDING. A 122247Z ASCAT-C PASS DEPICTS A BROAD CIRCULATION, WITH A
WEAK CORE OF 5 KNOTS AND A SWATH OF 15-20 KNOT WINDS DISPLACED OVER
120NM TO THE SOUTH. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 15-20 KNOTS, GOOD DUAL-CHANNEL UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 29-30 C, OFFSET BY MID-LEVEL
DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE NOT IN
AGREEMENT ON DEVELOPMENT, WITH ECMWF, GFS AND GEFS FORECASTING NO MODEL
DEVELOPMENT DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, WHILE NAVGEM AND
ECENS FORECAST WEAK/BORDERLINE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
REMAINS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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楼主: qiqi
发表于 2025-5-13 10:24
发表于 2025-5-13 14:20
