墨西哥西南热带风暴“科斯梅”(03E.Cosme) - 远期与02E藤原

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WTPZ43 KNHC 091437
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Cosme Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032025
800 AM MST Mon Jun 09 2025

Cosme continues to become better organized this morning, with a
recent 0936Z/GPM pass indicating a partially closed eyewall
structure. The most recent subjective Dvorak intensity estimates
from TAFB and SAB were both T3.5/55 kt. Meanwhile, the objective
satellite estimates range from 48 to 61 knots. Given the improved
structure noted in microwave imagery, along with a blend of the
objective and subjective intensity estimates, the initial intensity
for this advisory has been increased to 55 kt.

Cosme is moving toward the west-northwest at 6 kt, and this general
motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the north and a
slowing in forward speed is expected tonight, as Barbara erodes the
mid-level ridge to the north of Cosme. A turn toward the
north-northeast with an increase in forward speed is forecast
Tuesday through Wednesday as Cosme is swept northward into the break
in the mid-level ridge created by Barbara. The latest track forecast
is very close to that of the previous advisory and is generally a
blend of the consensus guidance.

Environmental conditions appear conducive for strengthening
during the next 12 hours or so. Vertical wind shear is forecast to
decrease, while water temperatures hold around 27/28C, and deep
layer atmospheric moisture remains high. As a result, the official
forecast calls for Cosme to become a hurricane later today. Little
change in strength is then forecast tonight and Tuesday despite
Cosme remaining over warm water, as increasing vertical wind shear
and gradually decreasing deep-layer moisture should inhibit further
intensification. Beginning Tuesday night and Wednesday, a more rapid
weakening is forecast as the system moves over much cooler water,
with Cosme expected to dissipate by 96 hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/1500Z 14.5N 113.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
12H  10/0000Z 14.8N 114.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
24H  10/1200Z 15.2N 114.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
36H  11/0000Z 15.8N 113.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
48H  11/1200Z 17.0N 113.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
60H  12/0000Z 18.5N 113.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  12/1200Z 19.6N 114.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Jelsema/Cangialosi

红豆棒冰冰

昨天晚间SAR扫到69kt

红豆棒冰冰

SSD 18Z分析维持T3.5

TXPZ25 KNES 091841
TCSENP
A.  03E (COSME)
B.  09/1800Z
C.  14.4N
D.  114.1W
E.  THREE/GOES-E
F.  T3.5/3.5
G.  IR/EIR/PRXY/VIS
H.  REMARKS...10/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 3.5. THE MET IS 3.0 AND
THE PT IS 3.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE PT DUE TO THE BANDING PATTERN
BEING IRREGULAR.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...LINER