墨西哥西南热带风暴“达莉拉”(04E.Dalila)

pocketbox

WTPZ34 KNHC 140549
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dalila Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042025
1200 AM CST Sat Jun 14 2025

...DALILA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD OFFSHORE THE SOUTHWEST
COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM CST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 103.2W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...72 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan De Galeana to Playa Perula

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 AM CST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dalila was
located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 103.2 West. Dalila is
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the west is
forecast by Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Dalila is
forecast to move parallel to, but offshore of, the southwestern
coast of Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds are now near 45 mph (72 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next day or so.
Weakening should begin by Sunday.

Dalila is a large storm. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward
up to 310 miles (500 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Dalila can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header
WTPZ44 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches are expected across
portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán, and Colima
through Sunday morning, with localized amounts up to 9 inches near
the coast. This rainfall will lead to areas of flooding and
mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain near the coast.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Dalila, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area and are possible within the watch area tonight and Saturday.

SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Dalila will affect
portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few
days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema/Beven

红豆棒冰冰

SSD 06Z分析升至T3.0

TXPZ26 KNES 140624
TCSENP
A.  04E (DALILA)
B.  14/0600Z
C.  15.7N
D.  103.4W
E.  THREE/GOES-E
F.  T3.0/3.0
G.  IR/EIR/SWIR/PRXY
H.  REMARKS...7/10 BANDING YIELDS A DT OF 3.0. THE MET IS 2.5. THE PT
IS 3.0. THE FT IS BASED ON THE PT BECAUSE THE BANDING FEATURES ARE NOT
CLEAR CUT DUE TO PULSING CONVECTION.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...GATLING

红豆棒冰冰

稍早前ASCAT风场扫描

ygsj24

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 140849
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Dalila Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042025
300 AM CST Sat Jun 14 2025

Dalila has become better organized early this morning, with the
latest satellite images showing well defined convective banding
around the low-level center. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity
estimates from TAFB and SAB were T3.5/55 knots and T3.0/45 knots.
Objective estimates ranged from 34 to 43 knots, while a recent ASCAT
pass showed several wind barbs close to 40 kt. Based on a blend of
these data and taking into account the potential for some
under-sampling in ASCAT, the initial intensity for this advisory has
been increased to 45 knots.

Dalila is heading toward the northwest, or 305/10 knots. A turn
toward the west-northwest is expected later today as the system
moves along the southern periphery of a building mid-level ridge
over northern Mexico and the southwest U.S. A gradual turn toward
the west is expected tonight and Sunday, as Dalila moves over cooler
water and becomes increasingly steered by the low-level trade wind
flow. A westward motion is then forecast to continue through
dissipation Monday night, and this may be generous as Dalila may not
survive that long. The track forecast lies nearly on top of the
previous track and is in close agreement with the latest consensus
guidance.

There is a limited window for Dalila to strengthen as it will remain
over warm water and light to moderate effective easterly shear
today. The forecast calls for some strengthening today, and the peak
intensity was nudged slightly higher to better align with the latest
intensity model trends. Beginning tonight the system will cross the
26C isotherm and over progressively cooler water, and this is
expected to begin the weakening phase with Dalila forecast to become
a post-tropical remnant low Sunday night, and possibly sooner than
that. The latest intensity forecast close to the middle of the
intensity guidance envelope through the forecast period.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. The outer bands of Tropical Storm Dalila will bring locally heavy
rainfall to the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán, and Colima
through Sunday morning. Scattered areas of flooding and mudslides
are expected, especially in areas of steep terrain near the coast.

2. Dalila is expected to produce tropical-storm-force winds across
portions of the warning area tonight and Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/0900Z 15.9N 103.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
12H  14/1800Z 16.7N 105.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
24H  15/0600Z 17.6N 107.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
36H  15/1800Z 18.0N 109.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
48H  16/0600Z 18.1N 111.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
60H  16/1800Z 18.0N 113.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  17/0600Z 17.8N 115.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  18/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Jelsema/Beven

ygsj24

070
WTPZ34 KNHC 141144
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dalila Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042025
600 AM CST Sat Jun 14 2025

...OUTER BANDS OF DALILA IMPACTING SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM CST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 104.3W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM WSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan De Galeana to Cabo Corrientes

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 AM CST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dalila was
located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 104.3 West. Dalila is
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A gradual
west-northwest to westward turn is expected later today into
Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Dalila is forecast to
move parallel to, but offshore of, the southwestern coast of Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some additional strengthening is expected today. A weakening trend
is forecast to begin on Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles (405 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Dalila can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header
WTPZ44 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches are expected across
portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán, and Colima
through Monday morning, with localized amounts up to 9 inches near
the coast. This rainfall will lead to areas of flooding and
mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain near the coast.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Dalila, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area
today.

SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Dalila will affect portions
of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next couple days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

pocketbox

WTPZ44 KNHC 141434
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Dalila Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042025
900 AM CST Sat Jun 14 2025

Dalila continues to show signs of strengthening, with deep
convection bursting over the low-level center, and curved banding
features near the coast of southwestern Mexico. There is a fairly
large range of satellite intensity estimates this morning from 45 to
65 kt. Given the improving satellite presentation, the initial
intensity is raised to 50 kt for this advisory. A scatterometer pass
is scheduled over the system around 16Z, which may give a better
estimate of surface winds.

The storm is currently moving northwestward at an estimated 305/10
kt. A mid-level ridge is building westward over northern Mexico,
which should cause Dalila to gradually turn west-northwestward
later today. As the system begins to weaken into a shallower vortex
on Sunday, Dalila will turn more westward within the low-level wind
flow. The latest NHC forecast is near the previous one, and lies
near the latest simple and corrected consensus aids.

Dalila may be nearing peak intensity, with only about 6 to 12 h left
within a favorable environment. Thus, the NHC forecast shows slight
strengthening today, with a peak intensity of 55 kt. Along the
forecast track, Dalila will move over much cooler SSTs tonight and
begin to enter a drier, more stable airmass. This will lead to
steady weakening, and eventually the system will struggle to produce
convection. The NHC intensity forecast is near the previous one,
however now shows the system becoming a remnant low in 48 h,
although this could occur sooner. By day 4, models depict the
remnant low dissipating into an open trough.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. The outer bands of Tropical Storm Dalila will bring locally heavy
rainfall to the Mexican states of Michoacán and Guerrero through
Sunday morning. Scattered areas of flooding and mudslides are
expected, especially in areas of steep terrain near the coast.

2. Dalila is expected to produce tropical-storm-force winds across
portions of the warning area today.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/1500Z 16.5N 104.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
12H  15/0000Z 17.3N 106.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
24H  15/1200Z 17.9N 108.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
36H  16/0000Z 18.1N 110.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
48H  16/1200Z 18.1N 112.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H  17/0000Z 18.2N 113.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  17/1200Z 18.2N 115.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly

ygsj24

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 141753
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dalila Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042025
1200 PM CST Sat Jun 14 2025

...DALILA STRENGTHENS...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 105.1W
ABOUT 170 MI...280 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...16 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan De Galeana to Cabo Corrientes

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dalila was
located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 105.1 West. Dalila is
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (16 km/h). A gradual
west-northwest to westward turn is expected later today into Sunday.
On the forecast track, the center of Dalila is forecast to remain
offshore the southwestern coast of Mexico.

Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained
winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight additional strengthening is possible today, with a
weakening trend beginning on Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.32 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Dalila can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header
WTPZ44 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Additional rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches are expected
across portions of the Mexican states of Michoacán and Guerrero
through Sunday morning, with localized storm totals up to 9 inches
near the coast. This rainfall will lead to areas of flooding and
mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain near the coast.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Dalila, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area
today.

SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Dalila will affect portions
of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

ygsj24

584
WTPZ44 KNHC 142033
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Dalila Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042025
300 PM CST Sat Jun 14 2025

Deep convection continues to burst over the center of Dalila, with
cold cloud tops near -80 C and a well-defined convective band shown
in satellite imagery. A recent scatterometer pass showed peak winds
near 55 kt, which prompted an increase in the estimated intensity to
55 kt during the intermediate advisory. Since then, the convective
structure has remained steady, and with both objective and
subjective satellite intensity estimates continuing to support this
intensity, thus, the initial intensity is held at 55 kt for this
advisory.

The initial motion is estimated at 300/9 kt. The storm is expected
to continue moving toward the west-northwest into tonight, then
begin turning toward the west by Sunday as the mid- to upper-level
ridge continues to strengthen to the north. The forecast guidance
remains in good agreement with this scenario, and the new forecast
track is close to the various consensus models and is similar to the
previous NHC forecast.

Dalila has likely reached its peak intensity and the storm may
maintain its current strength for a few more hours. By Sunday, the
storm will begin moving over cooler waters and into a drier, more
stable environment, which will initiate a weakening trend. The
system is forecast to become a remnant low in 48 hours, then
dissipate into an open trough in 72 hours. The NHC intensity
forecast closely follows a blend of the statistical-dynamical
guidance and is very similar to the previous forecast.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. The outer bands of Tropical Storm Dalila will bring locally heavy
rainfall to the Mexican states of Michoacán and Guerrero through
Sunday morning. Scattered areas of flooding and mudslides are
expected, especially in areas of steep terrain near the coast.

2. Dalila is expected to produce tropical-storm-force winds across
portions of the warning area today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/2100Z 16.8N 105.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
12H  15/0600Z 17.4N 106.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
24H  15/1800Z 17.8N 108.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
36H  16/0600Z 17.9N 110.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H  16/1800Z 17.9N 112.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H  17/0600Z 17.9N 114.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  17/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Gibbs/Kelly

红豆棒冰冰

SSD 12Z分析升至T3.5/3.5，18Z分析降至T3.0/3.5

TXPZ26 KNES 141221
TCSENP
A.  04E (DALILA)
B.  14/1200Z
C.  16.2N
D.  104.1W
E.  THREE/GOES-E
F.  T3.5/3.5
G.  IR/EIR/SWIR
H.  REMARKS...10/10 BANDING YIELDS A DT=3.5. MET=3.0. PT=3.5. THE FT IS
BASED ON THE DT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...LEE

TXPZ26 KNES 141821
TCSENP
A.  04E (DALILA)
B.  14/1800Z
C.  16.4N
D.  104.7W
E.  THREE/GOES-E
F.  T3.0/3.5
G.  IR/EIR/VIS
H.  REMARKS...7/10 BROKEN BANDING YIELDS A DT=3.0. THE MET AND PT
AGREE. THE FT IS BASED ON THE MET SINCE THE BANDING FEATURES ARE NOT
CLEAR-CUT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...LEE

红豆棒冰冰

稍早前ASCAT风场扫描