小笠原群岛以东2502号热带风暴“圣帕”(02W.Sepat) - 北上趋向日本关东近海

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 00Z分析T1.5，SSD分析T1.0

TPPN10 PGTW 220006
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 95W (N OF GUAM)
B. 21/2330Z
C. 22.48N
D. 146.15E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T1.5/1.5  STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES WITH COLD OVERCAST GREATER THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELD A DT OF
1.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   SWANSON

TXPQ24 KNES 220035
TCSWNP
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (95W)
B.  21/2330Z
C.  22.2N
D.  146.2E
E.  THREE/HIMAWARI-9
F.  T1.0/1.0
G.  IR/EIR/VIS
H.  REMARKS...GREATER THAN 2/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.0. THE MET
AND PT AGREE. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...BERTALAN

红豆棒冰冰

ECMWF 18Z系集

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ABPW10 PGTW 220200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/220200Z-220600ZJUN2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/220151ZJUN2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
22.3N 146.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 146.2E, APPROXIMATELY 301 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 212300Z ASCAT
METOP-B 25KM IMAGE SHOWS ELEVATED SOUTHERLY WINDS (20 KNOTS) BEGINNING
TO WRAP INTO THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 95W IS
CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10-15
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE SOUTHWEST, MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW
ALOFT AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY HINDRANCE TO
DEVELOPMENT CURRENTLY IS A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT)
CELL POSITIONED WEST OF THE SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY RESTRICTING
OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 95W WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT
CONTINUES TO DISTANCE ITSELF FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED TUTT CELL. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 220200) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1) TO HIGH.//
NNNN

红豆棒冰冰

今天早晨ASCAT风场扫描

红豆棒冰冰

JMA 00Z维持TD

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 22N 146E NW SLOWLY.

红豆棒冰冰

红豆棒冰冰 发表于 2025-6-22 09:17
JTWC 00Z分析T1.5，SSD分析T1.0

JTWC稍早前修改00Z分析，升至T2.0

TPPN10 PGTW 220214
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 95W (N OF GUAM)
B. 21/2331Z
C. 22.48N
D. 146.15E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T2.0/2.0  STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS 0.50 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. MET YIELDS 1.5. PT YIELDS 2.0. DBO PT. THIS
IS A REANALYSIS ON INTENSITY ONLY.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   LINDGREN

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 03Z分析维持T2.0

TPPN10 PGTW 220301
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 95W (N OF GUAM)
B. 22/0230Z
C. 22.65N
D. 146.13E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/18HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS 0.50 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. MET YIELDS 1.5. PT YIELDS 2.0. DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   LINDGREN

红豆棒冰冰

GFS 00Z继续预报逐渐北上，巅峰约1003百帕

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ABPW10 PGTW 220600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS 220600Z-230600ZJUN2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/220151ZJUN2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
22.3N 146.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 146.2E, APPROXIMATELY 301 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 212300Z ASCAT
METOP-B 25KM IMAGE SHOWS ELEVATED SOUTHERLY WINDS (20 KNOTS) BEGINNING
TO WRAP INTO THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 95W IS
CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10-15
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE SOUTHWEST, MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW
ALOFT AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY HINDRANCE TO
DEVELOPMENT CURRENTLY IS A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT)
CELL POSITIONED WEST OF THE SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY RESTRICTING
OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 95W WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES
TO DISTANCE ITSELF FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED TUTT CELL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 220200) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
NNNN

Enceladus

GFS 2200Z Main-run(INVEST 95W)
▸ Range: +96Hrs
▸ Step: 24Hrs
▸ Maximun Expected Intensity: 30KT
▸ Plotted by: Enceladus