东太平洋四级飓风“基科”(11E.Kiko) - 环流小巧，西行发展 - NHC:125KT

菜园子

FNV3 06Z

ygsj24

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 022039
TCDEP1

Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112025
1100 AM HST Tue Sep 02 2025

The eye of Kiko continues to gradually become better defined on
visible and infrared GOES-18 imagery.  While the TAFB and SAB Dvorak
estimates of 4.5 (77 kt) and 5.0 (90 kt) are unchanged from 6 h ago,
the objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS have increased, and
now range from 70-85 kt.  The latest SATCON and AiDT measurements
are both 83 kt, and the eye has continued to warm and become better
defined over the past couple of hours.  The initial intensity is
increased to 85 kt for this advisory.

Kiko continues moving slowly westward, or 270 degrees at 5 kt.  The
main steering feature continues to be the subtropical ridge located
to the north of Kiko.  A slow westward motion should continue for
the next couple of days.  A turn toward the west-northwest is
forecast by days 3 and 4 as an upper-level trough north of Hawaii
begins to erode the western portion of the subtropical ridge.  There
remains above normal along-track spread in the model suite.  The
latest NHC track forecast was sped up a bit from the previous
official forecast, and is relatively close to, but slightly slower
than, the latest TVCE consensus and GFEX.

Through the next 48 h, Kiko should remain over sea-surface
temperatures of 27-28C, with light to moderate easterly wind shear,
but the relatively dry and stable environment is making the
intensity forecast tricky.  There is larger than normal spread among
the various intensity models.  Between days 3 and 4, water
temperatures along Kiko's path will begin to decrease while it also
moves into a progressively drier air mass.  The NHC intensity
forecast continues to lie at the high end of the guidance suite
through day 3, but is now close to the middle of guidance envelope
at days 4 and 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/2100Z 13.9N 128.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
12H  03/0600Z 13.8N 129.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
24H  03/1800Z 13.8N 131.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
36H  04/0600Z 13.9N 132.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
48H  04/1800Z 14.1N 133.6W  100 KT 115 MPH
60H  05/0600Z 14.2N 135.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
72H  05/1800Z 14.5N 136.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
96H  06/1800Z 15.5N 139.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  07/1800Z 16.7N 142.8W   75 KT  85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Hagen

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：曹越男  签发：柳龙生  2025 年 09 月 03 日 10 时
“基科”向偏西方向移动

时        间:   3日08时（北京时，下同）

海        域:    东北太平洋

命        名:    “基科”，KIKO

中心位置:    西经129.2度，北纬13.8度

强度等级:    二级飓风

最大风力:    15级，47米/秒，相当于我国的强台风级

中心气压:    977百帕

参考位置:    距离美国夏威夷希洛东偏南方向约2822公里

变化过程:    过去24小时，“基科”由10级加强为15级

预报结论:   “基科”将以每小时10公里左右的速度向偏西方向移动，强度逐渐加强



图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年9月3日08时00分）

ygsj24

892
WTPZ41 KNHC 030233
TCDEP1

Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112025
500 PM HST Tue Sep 02 2025

Recent satellite images show that the low-level center of Kiko is
now obscured by a large central dense overcast, possibly due to an
increase in northeasterly vertical wind shear, with the outflow now
somewhat restricted in the eastern semi-circle.  A 02/2155Z AMRS2
microwave pass indicated that the cyclone continues to have a
well-defined inner-core, with a break in the eyewall evident in the
northwest quadrant at that time.  The most recent subjective Dvorak
current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were both 5.0/90 kt,
while the objective estimates from UW-CIMSS have ranged between 72
and 92 kt during the past several hours.  Taking a blend of these
data, the initial intensity for this advisory has been raised to 90
kt.

Kiko is moving due west, or 270 degrees, at 6 kt.  This general
motion is expected to continue during the next 60 hours or so, as
the cyclone is steered by a building subtropical ridge to its north
and northwest.  A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast by day
3 as an upper-level trough north of Hawaii begins to erode the
western portion of the subtropical ridge, with this general motion
then continuing through day 5.  There remains considerable
along-track spread among the global models, with the GFS and ECMWF
still showing a 240 n mi difference in position on day 5.  The
official track forecast remains in good agreement with a blend of
the latest multi-model consensus aids and is nearly on top of the
previous advisory, but with a slightly faster forward speed.

Kiko will remain over warm waters of 27–28C and influenced by most
light vertical wind shear through day 3.  The surrounding
environmental mid-level moisture will remain drier than optimal,
hovering between 50 and 60 percent through day 3, then trending
below 50 percent by days 4 and 5.  Despite the drier mid-level
airmass, the light vertical wind shear and warm sea surface
temperatures should maintain Kiko as a robust hurricane through day
3, with it likely being a major hurricane for much of that time.  By
days 4 and 5, the cyclone will begin moving over cooler water with
gradually increasing westerly vertical wind shear.  This should lead
to a steady weakening trend, but Kiko is still forecast to be a
hurricane at day 5.  The official forecast is on the higher end of
the intensity guidance suite, and is most closely aligned with the
HCCA and regional hurricane model intensity aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0300Z 13.8N 129.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
12H  03/1200Z 13.8N 130.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
24H  04/0000Z 13.8N 131.9W  100 KT 115 MPH
36H  04/1200Z 13.9N 133.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
48H  05/0000Z 14.1N 135.1W  105 KT 120 MPH
60H  05/1200Z 14.4N 136.9W  105 KT 120 MPH
72H  06/0000Z 14.8N 138.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
96H  07/0000Z 16.1N 141.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  08/0000Z 17.3N 144.8W   70 KT  80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)

普通的台风迷

风切变正在上升，导致目前难以开眼。

ygsj24

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 030900
TCDEP1

Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112025
1100 PM HST Tue Sep 02 2025

The low-level center of Kiko remained embedded in a large central
dense overcast through most of the past 12 hours, with only
the most recent satellite images now showing a more well-defined
eye developing surrounded by a ring of deep convection.  The most
recent subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB and
SAB were both 5.0/90 kt, while the objective estimates from UW-CIMSS
have ranged between 83 and 92 kt during the past several hours.
Based on these data and little overall change in the satellite
presentation since the previous advisory cycle, the initial
intensity has been held at 90 kt.

Kiko is moving due west, or 270 degrees, at 6 kt.  This general
motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days, as
the cyclone is steered by a building subtropical ridge to its north
and northwest.  A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast by day
3 as an upper-level trough north of Hawaii begins to erode the
western portion of the subtropical ridge, with this general motion
then continuing through day 5.  There remains some along-track
spread among the global models, particularly beyond 24 hours, with
some cross track spread also noted toward the end of the forecast
resulting from differences in the handling of the upper-level trough
and subtropical ridge to the north of Kiko.  The official track
forecast remains in good agreement with a blend of the latest
multi-model consensus aids and is nearly identical to the previous
advisory.

Kiko will remain over warm waters of 27–28C and influenced by most
light vertical wind shear through day 3.  The surrounding
environmental mid-level moisture will remain drier than optimal,
hovering between 50 and 60 percent through 60 hours, then trending
below 50 percent by days 3 through 5.  Despite the drier mid-level
airmass, the light vertical wind shear and warm sea surface
temperatures should maintain Kiko as a strong hurricane, with the
cyclone forecast to become a major hurricane on Wednesday and remain
at that status through day 3.  By days 4 and 5, the cyclone will
begin moving over cooler water with gradually increasing westerly
vertical wind shear, and mid-level moisture plummeting below 40
percent.  These factors should lead to a steady weakening, however,
Kiko is still forecast to be a hurricane on day 5.  The official
forecast remains on the higher end of the intensity guidance suite,
and is most closely aligned with a blend of the FSSE/HCCA intensity
consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0900Z 13.8N 130.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
12H  03/1800Z 13.8N 131.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
24H  04/0600Z 13.9N 132.6W  105 KT 120 MPH
36H  04/1800Z 14.0N 134.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
48H  05/0600Z 14.2N 135.8W  105 KT 120 MPH
60H  05/1800Z 14.5N 137.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
72H  06/0600Z 15.0N 139.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
96H  07/0600Z 16.3N 142.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  08/0600Z 17.5N 145.8W   75 KT  85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：徐立、曹越男  签发：柳龙生  2025 年 09 月 03 日 18 时
“基科”向偏西方向移动

时        间:   3日14时（北京时，下同）

海        域:    东北太平洋

命        名:    “基科”，KIKO

中心位置:    西经129.8度，北纬13.8度

强度等级:    二级飓风

最大风力:    15级，47米/秒，相当于我国的强台风级

中心气压:    970百帕

参考位置:    距离美国夏威夷希洛东偏南方向约2760公里

变化过程:    过去24小时，“基科”由11级加强为15级

预报结论:   “基科”将以每小时10公里左右的速度向偏西方向移动，强度逐渐加强



图2 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年9月3日14时00分）

觀雲趣

https://science.nrlmry.navy.mil/ ... 25&sensor=amsr2


今晚有機會開眼
AMSR 89H

pocketbox

WTPZ41 KNHC 031451
TCDEP1

Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112025
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
500 AM HST Wed Sep 03 2025


Kiko is getting better organized on satellite with an eye clearing
out over the past 6 to 12 hours with recent satellite images showing
the eye being surrounded by a ring of deep convection.  The most
recent subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB and
SAB were both 5.0/90 kt at 12Z but since that time the structure
has improved on satellite while the objective ADT estimate was 99
knots.  The initial intensity has been set at 95 kt as a compromise
between these estimates.

Kiko is moving due west, or 270 degrees, at 7 kt.  This general
motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days, as
the cyclone is steered by a building subtropical ridge to its north
and northwest.  A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast by day
3 as an upper-level trough north of Hawaii erodes the western
portion of the subtropical ridge, with this general motion then
continuing through day 5.  The track guidance this cycle was tightly
clustered through day 3.  After that time, the European ensemble
shows a significant increase in spread in both the along- and
cross-track directions.  The official track forecast remains close
to the HCCA and GDMI model solutions and is on the southern side
of the overall model envelope of solutions.

Kiko will remain over warm water and light vertical wind shear for
at least the next 3 days.  Kiko's intensity will therefore likely
be governed by inner-core structural changes.  Given its current
single eye-wall structure seen on earlier AMSR-2 microwave imagery,
Kiko appears poised to intensify more in the short term and the
latest intensity forecast shows more intensification than the
previous advisory.  This intensity forecast is on the higher end of
the guidance suite closest to the HAFS-A and HAFS-B forecast over
the next 2 to 3 days. After that time, cooler SSTs and an increase
in southwesterly vertical wind shear should lead to gradual
weakening.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/1500Z 13.9N 130.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
12H  04/0000Z 13.9N 131.8W  110 KT 125 MPH
24H  04/1200Z 14.0N 133.4W  115 KT 130 MPH
36H  05/0000Z 14.2N 135.0W  115 KT 130 MPH
48H  05/1200Z 14.6N 136.9W  110 KT 125 MPH
60H  06/0000Z 14.8N 138.8W  105 KT 120 MPH
72H  06/1200Z 15.2N 140.6W  100 KT 115 MPH
96H  07/1200Z 16.8N 143.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  08/1200Z 18.5N 147.7W   75 KT  85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Bann

ygsj24

139
WTPZ41 KNHC 032053
TCDEP1

Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112025
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM HST Wed Sep 03 2025

Kiko has strengthened to a category 4 hurricane with recent
subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates of 5.5 and 6.0 from
TAFB and SAB respectively.  The structure has continued to improve
on satellite imagery with the most recent ADT estimate up to 117
knots, and a raw data T number even higher of 6.4.  The initial
intensity was thus set at the higher end of the subjective Dvorak
estimates at 115 knots.

Kiko is moving due west, or 270 degrees, at 8 knots.  The forecast
track reasoning has changed little for this advisory.  A general
westward motion is expected to continue during the next couple of
days, as the cyclone is steered by a building subtropical ridge to
its north and northwest.  A turn toward the west-northwest is
forecast by day 3 as an upper-level trough north of Hawaii erodes
the western portion of the subtropical ridge, with this general
motion then continuing through day 5.  The track guidance this cycle
remained in good agreement through day 3.  After that time, the
along- and cross-track spread does increase but is still in fairly
good agreement through day 5.  The official track forecast remains
close to the multi-model consensus aids, near the middle of the
model envelope of solutions.

Kiko will remain over warm water and light vertical wind shear for
at least the next 3 days.  Kiko's intensity will therefore likely be
governed by inner-core structural changes.  Kiko is currently in the
middle of a period of rapid intensification which is expected to
last for at least another 12 hours. Thereafter, it's possible Kiko
may undergo an eyewall replacement, though the environment could
also allow the hurricane to develop annular characteristics. Thus,
the intensity forecast is on the higher end of the guidance suite,
not that far off the reliable HCCA consensus aid over the first 72
hours. After that time, cooler SSTs and an increase in southwesterly
vertical wind shear should lead to a faster rate of weakening.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/2100Z 13.9N 131.6W  115 KT 130 MPH
12H  04/0600Z 14.0N 132.8W  125 KT 145 MPH
24H  04/1800Z 14.0N 134.4W  125 KT 145 MPH
36H  05/0600Z 14.2N 136.1W  120 KT 140 MPH
48H  05/1800Z 14.5N 137.8W  115 KT 130 MPH
60H  06/0600Z 14.9N 139.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
72H  06/1800Z 15.6N 141.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
96H  07/1800Z 17.1N 145.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  08/1800Z 18.7N 149.5W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Bann