MEDIUM - 关岛以西90W - 13.8N 135.4E - 数值支持发展，趋向巴士海峡以东 - JMA:GW

LilXnow

冷空氣太弱，基本上可以把它當作夏颱看待

pocketbox

ABPW10 PGTW 170200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/170200Z-170600ZSEP2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/161951ZSEP2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 16SEP25 1800Z, TROPICAL STORM 23W (TWENTYTHREE) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 122.2E, APPROXIMATELY 114 NM NORTHEAST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES, AND HAD TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 162100) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
15.0N 137.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 136.6E, APPROXIMATELY 225 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
A RECENT 162205Z F16 SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING,
OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH BROAD CONVECTIVE BANDING
AND PERSISTENT, FLARING CONVECTION. A RECENT 162051Z SCATTEROMETER
PASS REVEALS 15-20 KNOTS THROUGHOUT THE CIRCULATION.ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 5-10 KNOTS, MODERATE DUAL-CHANNEL UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 30 TO 31 DEGREES
CELSIUS. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON GRADUAL CONSOLIDATION AND
INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO
23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
...
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED
AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO MEDIUM AND ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(2).//
NNNN

kimkim

渔寮湾 发表于 2025-9-17 10:15
国庆假期再来一个？不大可能吧

後面是還有一個胚胎

skyline0638

Ha8203 发表于 2025-9-17 09:21
下星期中,再下星期還有另一個

23W预计是本周末。那下周中就来这个大货？

lawman

LilXnow 发表于 2025-9-17 10:17
冷空氣太弱，基本上可以把它當作夏颱看待

9 月冷空氣弱好平常

LilXnow

現在大氣配置很單純，高機率珠三角躲不掉

lawman

LilXnow 发表于 2025-9-17 10:47
現在大氣配置很單純，高機率珠三角躲不掉

現時副高配置確實高機率登陸珠江口附近
以珠江口為中心東西兩邊各200公里為誤差範圍

謙神

9天：
九 月 二 十 四 日 ( 星 期 三 )
風 　 ： 東 至 東 北 風 6 級 ， 離 岸 及 高 地 達 8 級 。
天 氣 ： 密 雲 ， 有 狂 風 驟 雨 及 雷 暴 。 雨 勢 有 時 頗 大 。
海 有 大 浪 及 湧 浪 。
氣 溫 ： 26 至 30 度 。
相 對 濕 度 ： 百 分 之 80 至 95 。
顯 著 降 雨 概 率 預 報 ： 高 。

特提：

另一方面，預料另一個熱帶氣旋會在今明兩日於菲律賓以東之西北太平洋形成，顯著增強及橫過呂宋海峽一帶，並在下週初進入南海北部，靠近華南沿岸。受其廣闊環流影響，下週中期該區天氣顯著轉壞，風勢再度增強，有狂風大驟雨及雷暴，海有大浪及湧浪。由於屆時風暴潮可能較為顯著，沿岸地區或會出現水浸。

市民請留意天文台的最新天氣消息。
17/09/2025 12:05:00

pocketbox

渔寮湾

lawman 发表于 2025-9-17 11:12
現時副高配置確實高機率登陸珠江口附近
以珠江口為中心東西兩邊各200公里為誤差範圍

还有将近一周时间，副高能否一直维持强势存疑，如果超预期爆发加上副高脊线弱化，路径的变化就不是一丝半点