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发表于 2025-10-2 04:50
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JTWC/27W/#03/10-01 18Z Prognostic Reasoning
WDPN31 PGTW 012100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 27W (TWENTYSEVEN)
WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 14.5N 128.3E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 424 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
TROPICAL STORM 27W IS SHOWING SIGNS OF CONSOLIDATION AND SPREADING
CONVECTION OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, ALTHOUGH THAT IS TO BE EXPECTED
DURING A DIURNAL MAXIMUM PHASE. NONETHELESS, DEEP CONVECTION HAS
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT AND WIND FLOW IS
TIGHTENING AROUND THE VORTEX, WHICH IS ALSO TUCKING ITSELF FURTHER
UNDERNEATH THE CONVECTION. THE INTENSITY IS BUMPED UP TO 35KTS
WHICH IS THE TOP END OF THE 30-35 KT OVERALL RANGE OF THE STORM.
BASED ON THREE CONSECUTIVE T2.5 FROM JTWC AND RISING OBJECTIVE
ASSESSMENTS FROM ADT, AIDT, DMINT, AND DPRINT WHICH ARE ALL AT
34KTS, THE 35KTS IS CLOSER TO THE TRUE INTENSITY THAN 30KTS. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH THE FERTILE GROUNDS OF THE PHILIPPINE SEA
UNDER AN AREA OF MINIMAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES NEARING 30C. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME MILD
SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR ALONG THE TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
STORM, BUT ANIMATED IMAGERY AND GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS
COCOONED ITSELF AND WILL BE ABLE TO CARRY ITS MOISTURE WITH IT TO
THE LUZON COAST. A 011709Z AMSR TWO SERIES HOT OFF THE PRESS SERVED
TO VERIFY POSITIONING AS WELL AS STRONGLY SUPPORTING 35KTS.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: A 251001Z ASCAT UPSTREAM OF THE SYSTEM
WAS USED TO SHAPE THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE RADII, OTHERWISE THE
OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK WAS USED.
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE, WHICH IS ANCHORED IN A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED JUST
NORTHEAST OF TAIWAN.
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
RJTD: T2.0 - 30 KTS
KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 40 KTS AT 011653Z
CIMSS ADT: 34 KTS AT 011730Z
CIMSS AIDT: 34 KTS AT 011730Z
CIMSS D-MINT: 34 KTS AT 011653Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 34 KTS AT 011800Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 5-10 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS WELL ESTABLISHED AND
WILL GUIDE THE SYSTEM ALONG A STEADY WEST-NORTHWEST BEARING TO A
LANDFALL BETWEEN PALANAN AND CASIGURAN. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO RAMP UP TO AT OR ABOVE TYPHOON STRENGTH
PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LUZON WILL TEAR
THE SYSTEM UP AND MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO TRACK UNTIL IT TRACKS
OFF-SHORE SOMEWHERE NEAR VIGAN AND REGATHERS ITSELF OVER THE WEST
PHILIPPINE SEA. THE ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN LUZON AND HAINAN IS ALSO
VERY FAVORABLE, WITH ANOTHER STRETCH OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE STORM TO
ALLOW IT TO DEEPEN TO TYPHOON STRENGTH BEFORE APPROACHING COASTAL
CHINA.
MODEL DISCUSSION: THERE ARE NO ISSUES WITH TRACK GUIDANCE. THE JTWC
FORECAST STAYS BETWEEN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE HAFS-A AND
NEW AI-DERIVED TRACKERS. FOR THE MOST PART, INTENSITY GUIDANCE DOES
NOT PROCESS THE TRIP OVER LUZON, BUT HAFS-A SHOWS A GOOD
SENSITIVITY TO THAT LEG. IT DOES, HOWEVER, TRACK THE SYSTEM ACROSS
LUZON AT 55KTS. THE MOST DIFFICULT POINTS OF THE FORECAST COME AT
TAU 36, CAPTURING HOW MUCH THE TERRAIN DEGRADES THE SYSTEM, AND AT
TAU 48, HOW MUCH IT IS ABLE TO RAMP BACK UP ONCE RETURNING TO SEA.
THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST TOPS OUT AT 75KTS, WHICH MATCHES HAFS-A
AND IS JUST BELOW THE CONSENSUS MEAN.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 00-72 HR: LOW
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
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楼主: ygsj24
发表于 2025-10-2 05:34
