MEDIUM - 南海南部热带低压“森亚尔”(BOB 08/04B.Senyar) - 罕见位置成旋，26日登陆苏门答腊岛，折返东行进入南海再发展 - JMA:GW

327

桑美和伊欧凯 发表于 2025-11-26 23:27
有成为第28号台风的可能性，100.1E还能40KT，有点厉害

国际编号涉及RSMC的区域责任移交，不能使用JTWC的预报。按照IMD的最新预报，JMA是无法进行处理的。

ygsj24

WTIO31 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (SENYAR) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (SENYAR) WARNING NR 007   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   270000Z --- NEAR 3.6N 100.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 3.6N 100.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   271200Z --- 3.7N 101.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
270300Z POSITION NEAR 3.6N 100.6E.
27NOV25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (SENYAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
572 NM SOUTHWEST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL
IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04B WITH A PARTIALLY OBSCURED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH ASSOCIATED SPORATIC AND
SHORT-LIVED FLARING CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE BAY OF MALACCA.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B IS IN AN
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(20-25 KTS) AND INCREASED FRICTIONAL IMPACTS DUE TO LAND INTERACTION
AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WEST COAST OF  MALAYSIA. OVER THE NEXT
12 HOURS, TC 04B IS FORECASTED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD AND MAKE LANDFALL
JUST PRIOR TO TAU 12. REGARDING INTENSITY, THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST
IS ALIGED CLOSELY TO THE JTWC CONSENSUS, MAINTAINING 25 KTS UNTIL THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM
BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
AT 270000Z IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z IS 8
FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B WARNINGS (WTIO32 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

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全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：张怡驰、张增海  签发：向纯怡  2025 年 11 月 27 日 10 时
“森亚尔”减弱为深低压

时  间: 27日08时（北京时）

海  域: 北印度洋

命  名: “森亚尔”，SENYAR

中心位置:  北纬3.8度，东经100度

强度等级:  深低压

最大风力: 7级，14米/秒，相当于我国的热带低压级

中心气压: 1005百帕

参考位置: 距离印度尼西亚苏门答腊岛棉兰东偏北方向约120公里

变化过程: 过去24小时，“森亚尔”由9减弱为7级

预报结论: “森亚尔”已于今天（27日）08时（北京时）在马六甲海峡减弱为深低压，中央气象台停止对其监视。（这是关于“森亚尔”的最后一期监测公报）



图1  卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年11月27日08时00分）

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桑美和伊欧凯

ygsj24 发表于 2025-11-27 10:39
WTIO31 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B ( ...

残余集中在马来西亚东部，有望和台风天琴藤原

327

桑美和伊欧凯 发表于 2025-11-27 13:11
残余集中在马来西亚东部，有望和台风天琴藤原

没有机构把中心定位在那里，可能是类似于背风低压的东西

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Meow

327 发表于 2025-11-27 14:00
没有机构把中心定位在那里，可能是类似于背风低压的东西

JMA报可能有些发展

327

Meow 发表于 2025-11-27 16:04
JMA报可能有些发展

JMA目前定位仍然在海峡中，需要看看未来如何认定

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