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本帖最后由 pocketbox 于 2025-11-29 23:40 编辑
WTIO32 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (DITWAH) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (DITWAH) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z --- NEAR 10.2N 80.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.2N 80.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 11.0N 80.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 12.1N 80.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 13.2N 81.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 13.9N 81.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
291500Z POSITION NEAR 10.4N 80.8E.
29NOV25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (DITWAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 863
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 291200Z IS
1001 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 292100Z, 300300Z, 300900Z AND 301500Z.//
NNNN
- WDIO32 PGTW 291500
- MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
- SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (DITWAH) WARNING
- NR
- 011//
- RMKS/
- 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
- 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
- SUMMARY:
- INITIAL POSITION: 10.2N 80.8E
- INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
- GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 863 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA
- MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWARD AT 03 KTS
- SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 14 FEET
- SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
- ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
- CYCLONE 05B WITH A COMPLETELY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
- (LLCC) AND CONVECTION CONFINED PRIMARILY TO THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY.
- ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 05B IS IN A MARGINAL
- ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT OFFSET
- AND WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY MODERATE
- (15-20 KTS) SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SIGNIFICANT DRY
- AIR ENTRAINMENT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM
- CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC IN ANIMATED EIR IMAGERY. THE
- INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
- BASED ON THE AGENCY DVORAK FIXES AND CIMSS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY
- ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.
- INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK
- CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
- RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MYANMAR.
- AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
- PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
- DEMS: T2.5 - 35 KTS
- CIMSS SATCON: 35 KTS AT 291030Z
- CIMSS ADT: 28 KTS AT 291200Z
- CIMSS AIDT: 29 KTS AT 291200Z
- CIMSS D-PRINT: 30 KTS AT 291200Z
- FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
- VWS: 15-20 KTS
- SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
- OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
- OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WITHIN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE
- ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
- INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
- INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
- INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
- 3. FORECAST REASONING.
- SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
- THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
- FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 05B IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWARD, ALONG
- THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER
- SOUTHERN MYANMAR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS
- FORECAST TO TRACK JUST OFF THE EASTERN COAST OF INDIA, AND PASSING
- EAST OF CHENNAI AROUND TAU 36. REGARDING INTENSITY, 05B IS FORECAST
- TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 36 AS SHEAR REMAINS
- WITHIN THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE. AROUND TAU 36, SOUTHERLY SHEAR
- INCREASES TO AROUND 25 KTS AND SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF DRY BEGIN TO
- ENTRAIN INTO THE VORTEX FROM THE WEST. THESE TWO FACTORS ARE
- EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM BELOW WARNING CRITERIA AROUND TAU 48.
- THE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF INDIA WILL BE A MAJOR FACTOR IN
- INTENSITY. IF THE VORTEX CLIPS THE COAST, A QUICKER DISSIPATION
- TIMELINE MAY ENSUE.
- MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
- AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH AN 85 NM CROSS-TRACK
- SPREAD AT TAU 48. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE
- MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE
- AGREES ON A STEADY INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 36-48 BEFORE STEADY
- WEAKENING. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ALSO PLACED CLOSE TO THE
- CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
- TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
- INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH//
- NNNN
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楼主: 大水台6
发表于 2025-11-29 16:50
