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本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2025-12-21 12:00 编辑
WTXS32 PGTW 210300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (NINE) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (NINE) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210000Z --- NEAR 12.4S 104.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.4S 104.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 12.5S 103.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 12.5S 102.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 12.4S 101.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 12.4S 100.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 12.2S 99.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 12.1S 98.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 12.3S 96.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
210300Z POSITION NEAR 12.4S 104.1E.
21DEC25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (NINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 440
NM EAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 210000Z IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
211500Z AND 220300Z.
//
NNNN
- WDXS32 PGTW 210300
- MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
- SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (NINE) WARNING NR
- 008//
- RMKS/
- 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
- 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
- SUMMARY:
- INITIAL POSITION: 12.4S 104.4E
- INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
- GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 440 NM EAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS
- MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 05 KTS
- SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET
- SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
- ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (NINE)
- DEEPENED DURING ITS DIURNAL MAXIMUM PERIOD. DVORAK ASSESSMENTS
- FROM BOTH ABOM AND JTWC ROSE DURING THE PERIOD AND THE INTENSITY
- ASSESSMENT IS RAISED TO 45KTS BASED ON THE JTWC DVORAK AND A PACK
- OF CIMSS OBJECTIVE ASSESSMENTS, WITH SATCON THE HIGHEST AT 48KTS
- AND THE LOWEST BEING THE MICROWAVE BASED DMINT AT 36KTS. THE SYSTEM
- IS FIXED BETWEEN TWO LARGE GLOBES OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH
- OVERSHOOTING TOPS THAT ARE SHOWING EARLY SIGNS OF CONSOLIDATING AND
- ROTATING AROUND EACH OTHER. WE SHALL SEE, HOWEVER, AS THE SYSTEM
- HAS BEEN CYCLING OVER THE PAST THREE DAYS, PEAKING NEAR THE 00Z HOUR
- ONLY TO WANE AGAIN AS THE SUN RISES OVER THE EASTERN INDIAN OCEAN.
- A MOSAIC OF SCATTEROMETRY PASSES BETWEEN 14Z AND 15Z SHOW TROPICAL
- CYCLONE NINE AS A RELATIVELY SMALL BUT WELL-ORGANIZED AND SYMMETRIC
- SYSTEM. TC 09S IS SUPPORTED BY CONSTRUCTIVE INTERFERENCE BETWEEN A
- NEGATIVE PHASE OF THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE, THE WEAKLY
- NEGATIVE ENSO CYCLE, AND THE CONVECTIVE PHASE OF THE MADDEN JULIAN
- OSCILLATION (MJO), WHICH HAS BEEN MAKING AN EXCELLENT ENVIRONMENT
- FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION OVER THE COCOS
- ISLAND REGION OVER THE PAST FORTNIGHT. BUT ALAS, THE IOD HAS
- PEAKED AND IS BECOMING LESS NEGATIVE AND THE CONVECTIVE PHASE OF
- THE MJO IS SHIFTING INTO THE MARITIME CONTINENT, SO THE PEAK PERIOD
- OF IDEAL CONDITIONS HAS PASSED AND THE ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING LESS
- FAVORABLE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ROBUST EQUATORWARD
- OUTFLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AND EXCELLENT OUTFLOW OVER THE
- SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. DRIER AIR EXISTS UPSTREAM OF THE CURRENT
- POSITION. EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR MAXES OUT IN THE MID-LEVELS
- AT 15-20KTS BUT IN THE OVERALL COLUMN IT AVERAGES ONLY 10KTS, AND
- THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING IN ALMOST THE SAME DIRECTION AS THE SHEAR.
- THE PRIMARY FORCES WORKING AGAINST IT ARE UPWELLING AND DRY AIR,
- BOTH OF WHICH ARE WELL UPSTREAM OF THE CURRENT POSITION. THE
- SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN MONSOON TROUGH IS DIS-JOINTED, WITH A BREAK
- OCCURRING NEAR 95E AND THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL INDIAN OCEAN SET UP
- FURTHER EQUATORWARD, ALSO HINTING THAT THE STORM IS MOVING INTO A
- MORE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT.
- INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE FROM EARLIER ASCAT PASSES AT
- 201431Z AND 201511Z.
- CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN FLANK OF THE
- SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WHICH IS ANCHORED IN AN ANTICYCLONE 15S 110E.
- AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
- PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
- APRF: T2.5 - 35 KTS
- CIMSS SATCON: 48 KTS AT 202233Z
- CIMSS ADT: 57 KTS AT 202030Z
- CIMSS D-MINT: 45 KTS AT 202232Z
- CIMSS D-PRINT: 45 KTS AT 202300Z
- FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
- VWS: 5-10 KTS
- SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
- OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
- ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
- INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
- INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
- INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
- 3. FORECAST REASONING.
- SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
- THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
- FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE WILL CHUG SLOWLY ALONG A
- WESTWARD BEARING IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MONSOON TROUGH AND
- INTENSIFY STEADILY, TOPPING OUT AT LOW TYPHOON STRENGTH. THE SLOW
- MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM WILL INDUCE UPWELLING, WITH COUPLED MODELS
- SHOWING THE EFFECTS BEGINNING TO WEAR ON THE SYSTEM BEGINNING NEAR
- TAU 48. 700-300MB MOISTURE PROGS SHOW DRIER AIR WRAPPING AROUND TO
- THE EQUATORWARD SIDE OF THE SYSTEM BY TAU 72, BUT THE SAME MODELS
- SHOW THE CORE STILL MANAGING TO COCOON ITSELF AND FIGHT OFF THE
- WORST OF THE EFFECTS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. SO ALTHOUGH THE
- SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN A DOWNTREND IN INTENSITY NEAR TAU 72, ALL
- GUIDANCE INDICATES THE SYSTEM WILL SURVIVE BEYOND THE END OF THE
- FORECAST PERIOD AND BRING GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE COCOS ISLANDS FOR
- CHRISTMAS.
- MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHT IN BEARING BUT THERE IS A
- CONSIDERABLE ALONG-TRACK SPREAD THOUGH TAU 72. THE JTWC TRACK
- FORECAST LEANS TOWARDS THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE. BEYOND TAU 72,
- CROSS-TRACK AND ALONG TRACK SPREAD BECOME SO WIDE THAT CLIMATOLOGY,
- HISTORICAL TRACKS, AND VOODOO ARE THE PREFERRED BASELINES. INTENSITY
- GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A SLOPE OF INTENSIFICATION INTO
- THE 48 TO 72 HOUR PERIOD, THEN A STEADY DOWNSLOPE THEREAFTER. THE
- JTWC FORECAST STAYS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY MEAN, WHICH IS JUST
- BELOW THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MEAN OF ONE T-NUMBER A DAY. THE HIGHEST
- GUIDANCE IS THE HAFS-A, WHICH GOES UP TO 90KTS AT TAU 72, BUT THE
- HAFS-A TRACK BREAKS OFF FROM THE PACK AND MEANDERS AFTER TAU 48.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
- TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
- TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
- INTENSITY 00-72 HR: LOW
- INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
- NNNN
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楼主: Ck.
发表于 2025-12-20 09:48
