迪戈加西亚东南强热带气旋第6号“杜扎伊”(14S.Dudzai) - MFR:110KT JTWC:125KT

觀雲趣

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov ... orm=SH142026_DUDZAI
SH142026 / DUDZAI | RCM3 - VH | 2026-01-12 13:20:34
Storm Center Longitude: 77.935
Storm Center Latitude: -16.832
Incidence Angle (Degrees): 47.523
Quadrant 1 NE VMax (kts): 123.42
Quadrant 2 SE VMax (kts): 124.62
Quadrant 3 SW VMax (kts): 110.80
Quadrant 4 NW VMax (kts): 107.26
RMax (nmi): 5.00 - 6.00




同時段的底層

ygsj24

WTXS31 PGTW 130900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 006   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   130600Z --- NEAR 17.3S 78.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S 78.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   131800Z --- 17.4S 77.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   140600Z --- 17.3S 77.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z --- 17.2S 75.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   150600Z --- 17.1S 74.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   160600Z --- 17.1S 72.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   170600Z --- 18.3S 69.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z --- 20.0S 66.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 17.3S 77.9E.
13JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 692
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
01 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 130600Z IS 954 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
132100Z AND 140900Z.
//
NNNN

1. WDXS31 PGTW 130900
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING
   
4. NR 006//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 17.3S 78.0E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 100 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 692 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWESTWARD AT 01 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 27 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (DUDZAI) HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST
    
18. TWELVE HOURS WITH A CONTRACTING MASS OF DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY,
    
19. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES, AND AN EYE FEATURE STRUGGLING TO
    
20. MAINTAIN SHAPE AS DEPICTED BY ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
    
21. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI). THE
    
22. SYSTEM HAS BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE
    
23. SUBTROPICAL RIDGING PATTERN TO THE SOUTH HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY. THE
    
24. INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
    
25. EVIDENT EYE-FEATURE OBSERVED ON  THE AFOREMENTIONED MSI. THE
    
26. INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED
    
27. ON 130029Z SAR DATA, CIMSS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES, AND
    
28. AGENCY SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.
    
29. 
    
30. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: 130029Z SAR DATA
    
31. 
    
32. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGING (STR) TO THE SOUTH
    
33. 
    
34. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
35.    PGTW: T5.5 - 102 KTS
    
36.    DEMS: T5.5 - 102 KTS
    
37.    FMEE: T5.5 - 102 KTS
    
38.    FIMP: T6.0 - 115 KTS
    
39.    CIMSS SATCON: 115 KTS AT 130130Z
    
40.    CIMSS ADT: 97 KTS AT 130600Z
    
41.    CIMSS AIDT: 96 KTS AT 130600Z
    
42.    CIMSS D-MINT: 116 KTS AT 130129Z
    
43.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 99 KTS AT 130600Z
    
44. 
    
45. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
    
46.    VWS: 10-15 KTS
    
47.    SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
    
48.    OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD
    
49. 
    
50. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
51.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
52.    INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
    
53.    INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH
    
54. 
    
55. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
56. 
    
57. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
58. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
59. 
    
60. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC DUDZAI IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD INTO
    
61. TAU 72, THEN SOUTHWEST INTO TAU 120, SLOWLY GAINING SPEED OVER
    
62. WATER AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH BUILDS
    
63. WESTWARD. THE SYSTEM IS FORECASTED TO WEAKEN STEADILY UNTIL TAU 48
    
64. FROM PROLONGED EXPOSURE TO MODERATE SHEAR (ABOVE 15 KTS) AND DRY
    
65. AIR WRAPPING INTO THE VORTEX FROM THE SOUTHWEST. BETWEEN TAU 48 AND
    
66. TAU 96, TC DUDZAI WILL HAVE SOME TIME TO REGAIN INTENSITY, DUE TO A
    
67. FORECASTED INCREASE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. AFTER TAU 96 THE
    
68. CIRCULATION WILL RESUME A WEAKENING TREND, BECOMING TOO INHIBITED
    
69. BY EXCESSIVE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT.
    
70. 
    
71. MODEL DISCUSSION: THE MAJORITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE IS WITHIN A 75 NM
    
72. CROSS TRACK SPREAD, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, WHICH TAKES A
    
73. DRAMATICALLY SHARP SOUTHWARD TURN AFTER TAU 36. THE JTWC FORECASTED
    
74. TRACK IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI MODEL CONSENSUS WITHOUT THE
    
75. INFLUENCE OF NAVGEM. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS MORE SPREAD (UP TO 70
    
76. KTS AT TAU 60) WITH HWRF AND HAFS-A DEPICTING A GREATER AMOUNT AND
    
77. LONGER PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION AFTER TAU 48. THE JTWC OFFICIAL
    
78. FORECAST REFLECTS VALUES SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE JTWC MULTI MODEL
    
79. CONSENSUS, ESPECIALLY AFTER TAU 60 ACCOUNTING FOR UNCERTAINTY IN
    
80. THE  MODELS DEPICTING HOW MUCH ADVANTAGEOUS OUTFLOW WILL HELP TC
    
81. DUDZAI COMBAT SHEAR AND DRY AIR.
    
82. 
    
83. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
84.    TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
    
85.    TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
    
86.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
    
87.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
    
88. NNNN

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pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：葛畅、曹越男  签发：王海平  2026 年 01 月 13 日 18 时
“杜扎伊”维持强热带气旋强度

时  间: 13日14时（北京时）

海  域: 西南印度洋

命  名: “杜扎伊”，DUDZAI

中心位置: 南纬17.4度，东经78.1度

强度等级: 强热带气旋

最大风力: 15级，47米/秒，相当于我国的强台风级

中心气压: 956百帕

参考位置: 距离毛里求斯路易港东偏北方向约2190公里

变化过程: 过去24小时，“杜扎伊”强度变化不大

预报结论: “杜扎伊”将以每小时5公里左右的速度向南偏东转偏西方向移动，强度缓慢减弱。



图1  卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2026年1月13日14时00分）

pocketbox

WTIO30 FMEE 131300
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/6/20252026
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/13 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.3 S / 77.8 E
(SEVENTEEN    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SEVEN    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 956 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 13 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 60 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/14 00 UTC: 17.4 S / 77.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 175 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55

24H: 2026/01/14 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 76.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SW: 175 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

36H: 2026/01/15 00 UTC: 17.1 S / 75.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 195 SW: 175 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

48H: 2026/01/15 12 UTC: 16.9 S / 73.8 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 215 SW: 185 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

60H: 2026/01/16 00 UTC: 16.8 S / 72.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 230 SW: 185 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

72H: 2026/01/16 12 UTC: 17.0 S / 70.5 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 250 SW: 195 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SW: 120 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/17 12 UTC: 18.5 S / 66.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 285 SW: 195 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SW: 130 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 65

120H: 2026/01/18 12 UTC: 20.2 S / 63.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 325 SW: 205 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SW: 130 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 70

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5+ CI=5.0

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, DUDZAI EYE FEATURE HAS DETERIORATED INTO AN
EMBEDDED CENTRE PATTERN. THE GCOM MICROWAVE SWAT AT 08.57Z ALLOWS US
TO POSITION THE CENTRE OF THE SYSTEM AND ALSO SUGGESTS AN INTRUSION
OF DRY AIR INTO THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE WHICH COULD CONTRIBUTE TO ITS
WEAKENING. OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ANALYSES ARE DOWNWARD WITH MAXIMUM
WINDS ESTIMATED AT 80/85 KT. WITH REGARD TO THE DVORAK ANALYSIS, THE
ANALYSIS IN A CONFIGURATION WITH THE EMBEDDED CENTRE PATTERN GIVES A
T OF 4.5, OR A CI OF 5.0 BY INERTIA. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
80 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE OBJECTIVE ANALYSES AVAILABLE. DUDZAI IS
THEREFORE DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL CONTEXT FOR THE FORECAST TRACK, THE
SYSTEM REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY DUE TO CONTRADICTORY DIRECTING FLOWS
WITH THE PRESENCE OF MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGES TO THE EAST AND
NORTH-WEST. THE STRENGTHENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL MID-TROPOSPHERE
RIDGE IN THE SOUTH-WEST SHOULD GRADUALLY STEER THE TRAJECTORY
WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT
DISPERSION BETWEEN MODELS CONCERNING THE TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF
THIS RIDGE AND THEREFORE THE ACCELERATION OF THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE
WEST. THE DISPERSION INCREASES EVEN FURTHER AT THE END OF THE WEEK,
WITH A MORE OR LESS SIGNIFICANT TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTH-WEST IN
CONNECTION WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, AS WELL AS A
HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT. IN THIS
UNCERTAIN CONTEXT, OUR TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE MAIN MODELS AND AI ENSEMBLE MEANS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING
TO A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS DUE TO ITS SLOW
MOVEMENT, WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO COOLING THE UNDERLYING WATERS.
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
REINTENSIFY TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT RESUMES MOVEMENT, ALLOWING IT
TO REGAIN SUFFICIENT OCEANIC POTENTIAL. AS FOR SHEAR, ITS IMPACT
REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS IT DEPENDS ON THE TRAJECTORY, WHICH IS MORE OR
LESS FAR NORTH OF THE ALTITUDE JET STREAM. CONSEQUENTLY, THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY UNCERTAIN AND WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON THE
TRACK AND THE SYSTEM'S RESISTANCE TO SHEAR.

NO IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS.

ygsj24

WTIO30 FMEE 131855
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/6/20252026
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/13 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.3 S / 77.7 E
(SEVENTEEN    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SEVEN    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY.

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/W 1.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 981 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 13 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 260 SW: 260 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 130 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 60 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 20 SW: 20 NW: 20

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/14 06 UTC: 17.3 S / 77.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 240 SW: 220 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55

24H: 2026/01/14 18 UTC: 17.3 S / 76.0 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 240 SW: 220 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

36H: 2026/01/15 06 UTC: 17.3 S / 74.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 240 SW: 220 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

48H: 2026/01/15 18 UTC: 17.0 S / 73.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 260 SW: 230 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

60H: 2026/01/16 06 UTC: 16.9 S / 71.7 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 270 SW: 230 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 35

72H: 2026/01/16 18 UTC: 17.3 S / 70.1 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 285 SW: 230 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/17 18 UTC: 18.9 S / 67.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 325 SW: 205 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SW: 130 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 75 NW: 45

120H: 2026/01/18 18 UTC: 20.8 S / 63.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 325 SW: 240 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 95

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5- CI=4.5+

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE
SLIGHTLY, WITH A WARMING OF THE CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CDO.
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSES REMAIN AROUND 4.5. 1331Z WSFM AND 1732Z
GMI MICROWAVE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE EYE HAS EXPANDED IN 89GHZ. THE
1328Z SAR PASS SUGGESTS AN INTENSITY CLOSE TO 70KT, WHILE THE LATEST
ASCAT PASSES (NOTABLY 1653Z) SEEM TO CORROBORATE AN INTENSITY CLOSE
TO THE MINIMAL STAGE OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE OR EVEN LESS. THE
INTENSITY IS THEREFORE LOWERED TO 65KT.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL CONTEXT FOR THE FORECAST TRACK, THE
SYSTEM REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY DUE TO CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS
WITH THE PRESENCE OF MID-LEVEL RIDGES TO THE EAST AND NORTH-WEST. THE
STRENGTHENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE SOUTH-WEST SHOULD
GRADUALLY STEER THE TRAJECTORY WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE
IS STILL SIGNIFICANT SPREAD AMONG MODELS CONCERNING THE TIMING OF THE
ARRIVAL OF THIS RIDGE AND THEREFORE THE ACCELERATION OF THE SYSTEM
WESTWARDS. THE UNCERTAINTY INCREASES EVEN FURTHER AT THE END OF THE
WEEK, WITH A MORE OR LESS SIGNIFICANT TURN SOUTH-WESTWARDS DUE TO A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. IN THIS UNCERTAIN CONTEXT, OUR
TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE MAIN DETERMINISTICS
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES MEANS ESPECIALLY AI ONES.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER AS A
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS DUE TO MID LEVEL SHEAR
AND ITS SLOW MOVEMENT, WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO COOLING THE
UNDERLYING WATERS. THEN DUDZAI SHOULD PROGRESSIVLY REGAIN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT AND REACH AGAIN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE. FROM FRIDAY
ONWARDS, THE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY DEEP SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
AGAIN AND LEAD TO A GRADUAL WEAKENING. HOWEVER, ITS STRENGTH WILL
DEPEND LARGELY ON THE SYSTEM'S TRACK.  AS A RESULT, THE INTENSITY
FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN.

NO IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS.=

ygsj24

WTXS31 PGTW 132100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 007   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   131800Z --- NEAR 17.2S 77.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S 77.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   140600Z --- 17.2S 77.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z --- 17.2S 76.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   150600Z --- 17.2S 74.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z --- 17.1S 73.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z --- 17.7S 70.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z --- 19.5S 66.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   181800Z --- 21.5S 63.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 17.2S 77.5E.
13JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 676
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 131800Z IS 977 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
140900Z AND 142100Z.
//
NNNN

1. WDXS31 PGTW 132100
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR
   
4. 007//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 17.2S 77.6E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 80 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 676 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 26 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FAIRLY
    
18. SYMMETRICAL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) FEATURE FULLY OBSCURING
    
19. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OF TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S
    
20. (DUDZAI). THE SYSTEM BECAME QUASI-STATIONARY SHORTLY AFTER IT MADE
    
21. A WESTWARD TURN. INCREASED DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ORIGINATING FROM THE
    
22. NORTH, AS WELL AS MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
    
23. CONTRIBUTED TO SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS,
    
24. RESULTING IN CURRENTLY ASSESSED INTENSITY OF 80 KTS. OFFSETTING THE
    
25. MAINLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IS PERSISTING MODERATE
    
26. POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS OF THE ENVIRONMENT REVEALS
    
27. UPWELLING OF THE COOLER SUB-SURFACE WATER OCCURRING DUE TO SLOW
    
28. TRANSLATIONAL SPEED OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED
    
29. WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 131732Z GPM GMI PASS SHOWING A
    
30. CLEAR MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH
    
31. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE COMBINATION OF OBJECTIVE AND DVORAK
    
32. ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.
    
33. 
    
34. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
    
35. 
    
36. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
    
37. SOUTHWEST
    
38. 
    
39. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
40.    PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS
    
41.    DEMS: T5.0 - 90 KTS
    
42.    FIMP: T5.0 - 90 KTS
    
43.    CIMSS ADT: 74 KTS AT 131500Z
    
44.    CIMSS AIDT: 73 KTS AT 131700Z
    
45.    CIMSS D-MINT: 80 KTS AT 131732Z
    
46.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 76 KTS AT 131745Z
    
47. 
    
48. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY
    
49. UNFAVORABLE
    
50.    VWS: 15-20 KTS
    
51.    SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
    
52.    OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD
    
53.    OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE NORTH
    
54. 
    
55. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
56.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
57.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
58.    INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
    
59. 
    
60. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
61. 
    
62. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
63. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
64. 
    
65. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC DUDZAI IS FORECAST TO VERY SLOWLY BEGIN TO
    
66. ACCELERATE WESTWARD, OWING TO A WEAK STEERING REGIME CHARACTERIZED
    
67. BY COMPETING INFLUENCES WITHIN THE AREA OF INTEREST. OVER THE NEXT
    
68. 24 TO 36 HOURS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING DUE TO
    
69. UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED ABOVE. AS THE SUBTROPICAL
    
70. RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED TO THE SOUTHWEST BUILDS AND REPOSITIONS
    
71. SOUTH OF THE VORTEX, TC 14S WILL BEGIN TO GAIN SPEED OVER WATER.
    
72. CONSEQUENTLY, AFTER TAU 48 TC DUDZAI WILL CIRCUMNAVIGATE THE
    
73. NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR AND TRANSLATE SOUTHWESTWARD
    
74. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. REGARDING INTENSITY
    
75. DURING THAT STAGE, AN ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS EXPECTED
    
76. TO ESTABLISH SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM BEFORE TAU 48, POTENTIALLY
    
77. FACILITATING SLIGHT RE-INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER, THE POSITIVE
    
78. IMPACTS OF THIS UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL BE MITIGATED BY
    
79. SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR INTRUSION EXPECTED AFTER TAU 72, FURTHER
    
80. ENHANCED BY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING VERTICAL
    
81. WIND SHEAR.
    
82. 
    
83. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION TRACK
    
84. GUIDANCE EXHIBITS MODERATE CONSENSUS REGARDING THE PROJECTED
    
85. SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM,
    
86. STEMMING FROM UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPORAL EXECUTION OF THE
    
87. ACCELERATION EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IS
    
88. ESTIMATED TO BE BETWEEN 40 AND 50 NM WITHIN THE INITIAL 12 HOURS,
    
89. MAINLY DUE TO A MORE SOUTHERN GUIDANCE OFFERED BY GALWEM AND UKMET
    
90. MODELS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE EXPANDS UPWARDS OF 200 NM
    
91. TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD INDICATING UNCERTAINTY
    
92. ASSOCIATED WITH THE IMPACT OF THE STR ON THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM.
    
93. THE OFFICIAL JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS POSITIONED ALONG THE NORTHERN
    
94. EXTENT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, MAINTAINING AN APPROXIMATE 25
    
95. NM DISTANCE FROM THE ENVELOPE MEAN. REGARDING INTENSITY GUIDANCE,
    
96. MODELS ARE IN HIGH AGREEMENT DEPICTING A PRECIPITOUS WEAKENING
    
97. TREND THROUGH TAU 24. BEYOND TAU 24, GUIDANCE DIVERGENCE INCREASES
    
98. SIGNIFICANTLY. HAFS AND HWRF PREDICT ROBUST RE-INTENSIFICATION TO
    
99. 100-125 KTS, WHEREAS GFS AND COAMPS-TC REPRESENT THE MIDDLE OF THE
    
100. INTENSITY ENVELOPE, DEPICTING INTENSITY STABILIZATION OR MINOR
     
101. FLUCTUATIONS IN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT LEAST THROUGH TAU 72.
     
102. ACCORDINGLY, JTWC OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM,
     
103. LAID CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MEAN, BUT LEANING TOWARD HAFS AND HWRF
     
104. SOLUTIONS BASED ON THE ANALYSIS OF THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.
     
105. 
     
106. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
     
107.    TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
     
108.    TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
     
109.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
     
110.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
     
111. NNNN

复制代码

pocketbox

WTIO30 FMEE 140028
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/6/20252026
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/14 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.3 S / 77.5 E
(SEVENTEEN    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SEVEN    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 2 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 981 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 260 SW: 260 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 130 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 60 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 20 SW: 20 NW: 20

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/14 12 UTC: 17.4 S / 76.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 295 SW: 285 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65

24H: 2026/01/15 00 UTC: 17.4 S / 75.3 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 295 SW: 295 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

36H: 2026/01/15 12 UTC: 17.4 S / 74.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 295 SW: 295 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

48H: 2026/01/16 00 UTC: 17.2 S / 72.6 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 295 SW: 295 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SW: 155 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

60H: 2026/01/16 12 UTC: 17.5 S / 70.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 335 SW: 285 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SW: 155 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65

72H: 2026/01/17 00 UTC: 18.2 S / 69.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 335 SW: 270 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SW: 155 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 75 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/18 00 UTC: 20.6 S / 65.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 360 SW: 270 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 100

120H: 2026/01/19 00 UTC: 22.4 S / 62.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 360 SW: 295 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SW: 165 NW: 85

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5- CI=4.5-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, DUDZAI REGAINED A POORLY DEFINED EYE PATTERN
ON INFRARED IMAGERY WITH STILL RELATIVELY WARM TOPS. SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK ANALYSES REMAIN CLOSE TO 4.5. THE 1953Z GCOM-W CONFIRMS THE
PREVIOUS GPM WITH A LARGER EYE IN 89GHZ. IN LINE WITH SUBJECTIVE
ESTIMATES, THE INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 65KT, PENDING NEW, MORE
RELIABLE ESTIMATES.

REGARDING THE TRAJECTORY, DUDZAI HAS BEGUN ITS GRADUAL ACCELERATION
WESTWARD IN RELATION WITH THE STRENGTHENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL MID
LEVEL RIDGE IN THE SOUTHWEST. BY THE END OF THE WEEK, DUE TO A
WEAKENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND ITS SWELLING
TO THE EAST, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD. SPREAD
AMONG NUMERICAL MODELS DECREASED BUT REMAINS SIGNIFICANT AT LONGER
RANGE. IN THIS UNCERTAIN CONTEXT, OUR TRAJECTORY FORECAST FOLLOWS A
CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE MAIN DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND THE ENSEMBLE
AVERAGES, NOTABLY AI.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM MAY WEAKEN FURTHER AS A SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM OVER THE NEXT HOURS DUE TO MID LEVEL SHEAR. THEN
DUDZAI SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY REGAIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND
INTENSIFY AGAIN. FROM FRIDAY ONWARDS, THE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY DEEP
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN AND LEAD TO A GRADUAL
WEAKENING. HOWEVER, ITS STRENGTH WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON THE SYSTEM'S
TRACK.  AS A RESULT, THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN.

NO IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS.

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：曹越男  签发：王海平  2026 年 01 月 14 日 10 时
“杜扎伊”向偏西方向移动

时  间: 14日08时（北京时）

海  域: 西南印度洋

命  名: “杜扎伊”，DUDZAI

中心位置: 南纬17.3度，东经77.5度

强度等级: 热带气旋

最大风力: 12级，33米/秒，相当于我国的台风级

中心气压: 981百帕

参考位置: 距离毛里求斯路易港东偏北方向约2130公里

变化过程: 过去24小时，“杜扎伊”由16级减弱为12级

预报结论: “杜扎伊”将以每小时5公里左右的速度向偏西方向移动，强度维持。



图1  卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2026年1月14日08时00分）

pocketbox

WTIO30 FMEE 140642
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/6/20252026
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/14 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.2 S / 77.2 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 2 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/S 0.0/0 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 982 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 17 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 260 SW: 260 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 130 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 60 NW: 55

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/14 18 UTC: 17.4 S / 75.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 270 SW: 250 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 140 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30

24H: 2026/01/15 06 UTC: 17.4 S / 74.4 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 285 SW: 270 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SW: 150 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30

36H: 2026/01/15 18 UTC: 17.3 S / 73.0 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 295 SW: 280 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SW: 150 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

48H: 2026/01/16 06 UTC: 17.5 S / 71.2 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 325 SW: 295 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SW: 165 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 35

60H: 2026/01/16 18 UTC: 17.9 S / 69.5 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 345 SW: 250 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

72H: 2026/01/17 06 UTC: 18.6 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 305 SW: 260 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 75 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/18 06 UTC: 21.1 S / 64.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 335 SW: 295 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 155 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 0

120H: 2026/01/19 06 UTC: 22.0 S / 60.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 305 SW: 240 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 75

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5 CI=4.5

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, DUDZAI HAS MAINTAINED AN EYE CONFIGURATION ON
INFRARED IMAGERY WITH RELATIVELY WARM PEAKS. HOWEVER, THE EYE IS NOW
MORE CLEARLY VISIBLE, AS CONFIRMED BY THE F16 MICROWAVE IMAGE FROM
0130 AT 85 GHZ. THE SYSTEM THEREFORE APPEARS TO BE IN A PHASE OF
REINTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER, THE 0023Z SAR AND 0324Z ASCAT PASSES ESTIMATE
WINDS OF AROUND 55 KT. DUDZAI HAS THEREFORE BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM SINCE 00 UTC. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSES REMAIN
CLOSE TO 4.5. TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE RECENT REINTENSIFICATION, DUZAI
REMAINS CLASSIFIED AS A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM WITH MAXIMUM WINDS
REESTIMATED AT 60KT.

REGARDING THE TRAJECTORY, DUDZAI HAS BEGUN ITS GRADUAL ACCELERATION
WESTWARD IN RELATION WITH THE STRENGTHENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL MID
LEVEL RIDGE IN THE SOUTHWEST. BY THE END OF THE WEEK, DUE TO A
WEAKENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND ITS SWELLING
TO THE EAST, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD. SPREAD
AMONG NUMERICAL MODELS DECREASED BUT REMAINS SIGNIFICANT AT LONGER
RANGE. IN THIS UNCERTAIN CONTEXT, OUR TRAJECTORY FORECAST FOLLOWS A
CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE MAIN DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND THE ENSEMBLE
AVERAGES, NOTABLY AI.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY RETURN TO A MORE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR AND WARMER
SURFACE WATERS AS IT ACCELERATES. IT SHOULD THEREFORE REINTENSIFY AND
RETURN TO THE STAGE OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE OR EVEN AN INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FROM FRIDAY ONWARDS, THE
WEST-NORTHWEST SHEAR SHOULD STRENGTHEN AGAIN AND LEAD TO A GRADUAL
WEAKENING. HOWEVER, ITS EXTENT WILL DEPEND IN PARTICULAR ON THE
SYSTEM'S TRAJECTORY. AS A RESULT, THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS
UNCERTAIN.

NO IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS.

ygsj24

WTXS31 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 008   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   140600Z --- NEAR 17.2S 77.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S 77.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z --- 17.2S 75.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   150600Z --- 17.2S 74.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z --- 17.1S 73.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   160600Z --- 17.1S 71.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   170600Z --- 18.0S 68.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z --- 19.4S 65.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z --- 21.0S 62.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 17.2S 76.8E.
14JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 663
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 140600Z IS 985 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 24 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z AND 150900Z.
//
NNNN

1. WDXS31 PGTW 140900
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR
   
4. 008//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 17.2S 77.1E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 65 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 663 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 04 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 24 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
    
18. CYCLONE (TC) 14S (DUDZAI) WITH AN OBSERVABLE EYE-FEATURE THAT HAS
    
19. BECOME INCREASINGLY CLOUD-FILLED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. DRY AIR
    
20. IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE CYCLONE IS EVIDENT, AS THE WESTERN AND
    
21. NORTHERN SEMICIRCLES HAVE REMAINED LARGELY CONVECTION FREE,
    
22. REVEALING SHALLOW CURVED CUMULIFORM LINES WRAPPING BELOW THE
    
23. RECENTLY WEAKENED SYSTEM. ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT IS ALSO
    
24. PRESENT, INDICATED BY CIRRIFORM TRANSVERSE BANDING THROUGHOUT THE
    
25. SOUTHWARD EXTENDING CHANNEL. THE ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME MARGINALLY
    
26. FAVORABLE SINCE THE PREVIOUS WARNING (12 HOURS AGO), WITH WARM SEA
    
27. SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-28 C), MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20
    
28. KTS), AND THE AFOREMENTIONED SUPPORTIVE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW CHANNEL.
    
29. THE PRESENT DRY AIR REMAINS A LIMITING FACTOR, WRAPPING CYCLONICALLY
    
30. FROM THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT, AROUND THE SYSTEMS WESTERN FLANK AND
    
31. INTO THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
    
32. HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE-FEATURE OBSERVED ON ANIMATED MSI.
    
33. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON
    
34. EARLIER 140023Z SENTINEL-1C SAR DATA AND SUBJECTIVE AGENCY
    
35. ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.
    
36. 
    
37. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: COMBINATION OF SCATTEROMETER AND SAR DATA
    
38. 
    
39. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND
    
40. EXTENDING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST, EAST OF TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S
    
41. 
    
42. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
43.    PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
    
44.    DEMS: T4.0 - 65 KTS
    
45.    FMEE: T4.5 - 77 KTS
    
46.    CIMSS SATCON: 74 KTS AT 140300Z
    
47.    CIMSS ADT: 87 KTS AT 140600Z
    
48.    CIMSS AIDT: 86 KTS AT 140600Z
    
49.    CIMSS D-MINT: 64 KTS AT 140652Z
    
50.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 67 KTS AT 140600Z
    
51. 
    
52. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
    
53.    VWS: 15-20 KTS
    
54.    SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
    
55.    OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
    
56. 
    
57. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
58.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
59.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
60.    INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH
    
61. 
    
62. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
63. 
    
64. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
65. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
66. 
    
67. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 14S IS FORECASTED TO CONTINUE ON A WESTWARD
    
68. TRACK OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
    
69. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH. AFTER TAU 48, THE
    
70. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND REPOSITION
    
71. TOWARD A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTATION. AS THE SUBTROPICAL
    
72. WEAKENS AND REORIENTS, THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECASTED TRACK WILL
    
73. BECOME SOUTHWESTWARD UNTIL THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
    
74. (TAU 120). REGARDING INTENSITY, TC 14S IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
    
75. INTENSITY NEAR 65 KTS OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS WITH SUPPORTIVE
    
76. OUTFLOW ALOFT COMPETING AGAINST MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BETWEEN
    
77. 15-20 KTS. AFTER TAU 24, RE-INTENSIFICATION TO 80 KTS IS FORECASTED AS
    
78. AN EASTWARD PROGRESSING LONGWAVE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH AMPLIFIES THE
    
79. POLEWARD OUTFLOW MECHANISM UNTIL TAU 48. FOLLOWING TAU 48, DRY AIR
    
80. ENTRAINMENT WILL BEGIN TO ERODE THE SYSTEM TOWARD 50 KTS BY TAU
    
81. 120. PRIOR TO TAU 120, THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE
    
82. RELATIVELY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT 26 C, FURTHER
    
83. LIMITING RE-INTENSIFICATION AND CONTINUE AN EXPECTED WEAKENING PHASE.
    
84. 
    
85. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
    
86. AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH THE
    
87. EXCEPTION OF TWO OUTLIERS, BEING NAVGEM AND GALWEM. NAVGEM
    
88. ILLUSTRATES A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK NEAR TAU 36, 12-24 HOURS PRIOR TO
    
89. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. GALWEM CHARACTERIZES A NORTHWESTERLY TRACK
    
90. AFTER TAU 36, AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE JTWC
    
91. FORECAST TRACK IS ALIGNED CLOSELY TO THE JTWC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS,
    
92. WITH BOTH NAVGEM AND GALWEM OMITTED. WITH THAT BEING SAID, THE
    
93. CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 72 IS 95 NM, INCREASING TO JUST 112 NM BY
    
94. TAU 120, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
    
95. REGARDING INTENSITY, SUSTAINED INTENSITIES ARE AGREED UPON AMONGST
    
96. THE MAJORITY OF JTWC INTENSITY CONSENSUS SOLUTIONS OVER THE NEXT 12
    
97. TO 24 HOURS. AFTER TAU 24, MOST INTENSITY GUIDANCE ILLUSTRATES
    
98. SLIGHT RE-INTENSIFICATION UNTIL TAU 48, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HAFS
    
99. AND COAMPS-TC. HAFS SHOWS A GREATER PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION
    
100. TOWARD A MAXIMUM OF 105 KTS, WHILE COAMPS-TC DEPICTS STEADY
     
101. WEAKENING THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THEREFORE,
     
102. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM
     
103. CONFIDENCE UNTIL TAU 120, AND IS ALIGNED JUST ABOVE THE JTWC
     
104. MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
     
105. 
     
106. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
     
107.    TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
     
108.    TRACK 72-120 HR: HIGH
     
109.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
     
110.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
     
111. NNNN

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