TCFA - 新喀里多尼亚西北14U(94P) - 17.1S 159.3E

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 12Z分析TOO WEAK

TPPS11 PGTW 141215
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94P (W OF NEW CALEDONIA)
B. 14/1140Z
C. 20.56S
D. 160.44E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. THIS SYSTEM IS TOO
WEAK TO CLASSIFY.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   PETERSEN

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 15Z继续分析TOO WEAK

TPPS11 PGTW 141508
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94P (W OF NEW CALEDONIA)
B. 14/1430Z
C. 20.56S
D. 160.34E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. THIS SYSTEM IS TOO
WEAK TO CLASSIFY.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   PETERSEN

TPPS11 PGTW 141519 COR
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94P (W OF NEW CALEDONIA)
B. 14/1431Z
C. 20.17S
D. 160.26E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. THIS SYSTEM IS TOO
WEAK TO CLASSIFY. CORRECTED FOR POSITION.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   PETERSEN

红豆棒冰冰

ABPW10 PGTW 141500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/141500Z-150600ZJAN2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/141351ZJAN2026//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 14JAN26 1200Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 9.3N 130.6E, APPROXIMATELY 254 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF KAYANGEL, AND
HAD TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO 35
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 141500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
7.8N 132.4E IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. SEE
PARA.1.A.(1) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
20.7S 159.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.4S 160.4E, APPROXIMATELY 586 NM
NORTHEAST OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY
(EIR) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
ISOLATED BUT FLARING CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT.
A 141129Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS REVEALS AN OPEN TROUGH WITH 10-15 KNOT
WINDS SLOWLY PRIMARILY THROUGHOUT THE NORTHWESTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
QUADRANTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KTS),
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-28 C), AND NO OBSERVABLE DIVERGENCE
ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH 94P SLOWLY WEAKENING AND CONTINUING NORTHWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO WARNING
STATUS.//
NNNN

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 18Z继续分析TOO WEAK

TPPS11 PGTW 141816
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94P (WEST OF NEW CALEDONIA)
B. 14/1750Z
C. 19.96S
D. 160.73E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. THIS SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK
TO CLASSIFY.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   HUYNH

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 21Z分析无法找到中心

TPPS11 PGTW 142053
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94P (WEST OF NEW CALEDONIA)
B. 14/2030Z
C. XX.XX
D. XXX.XX
E. N/A/GK2A
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: POSITION OF LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER COULD NOT BE
FOUND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   14/1716Z  20.07S  160.45E  SSMS
   HUYNH

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 00Z分析仍然无法找到中心

TPXS11 PGTW 150010
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94P (WEST OF NEW CALEDONIA)
B. 14/2340Z
C. XX.XX
D. XXX.XX
E. N/A/GK2A
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: POSITION OF LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER COULD NOT BE
FOUND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   14/1913Z  20.13S  160.30E  MMWI
   HUYNH

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 03Z分析T1.0

TPPS11 PGTW 150309
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94P (W OF NEW CALDONIA)
B. 15/0230Z
C. 19.18S
D. 160.74E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T1.0/1.0/W0.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES WITH OVERCAST LESS THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELD A DT OF 1.0. BOTH
MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   LINDGREN

红豆棒冰冰

ABPW10 PGTW 150600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/150600Z-160600ZJAN2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/150151ZJAN2026//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 15JAN26 0000Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 9.3N 129.7E, APPROXIMATELY 282 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SONSOROL, AND
HAD TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO
40 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 150300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
20.7S 159.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.5S 160.4E, APPROXIMATELY 379 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER WITH FLARING CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (27 TO 28 C). GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON 94P DRIFTING SLOWLY
NORTHWARD AS IT SLOWLY DEVELOPS OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 06Z分析维持T1.0

TPPS11 PGTW 150607
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94P (W OF NEW CALEDONIA)
B. 15/0530Z
C. 18.95S
D. 160.65E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T1.0/1.0/S0.0/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES WITH OVERCAST LESS THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELD A DT OF 1.0. BOTH
MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   LINDGREN

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 09Z分析维持T1.0

TPPS11 PGTW 150913
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94P (W OF NEW CALEDONIA)
B. 15/0830Z
C. 18.82S
D. 160.77E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T1.0/1.0/S0.0/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 47A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES WITH OVERCAST LESS THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELD A DT OF 1.0. BOTH
MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   LINDGREN