‌新喀里多尼亚以西热带低压06F(16P)

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 03Z分析降至T1.5/2.5

TPPS10 PGTW 220244
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SE OF NOUMEA)
B. 22/0230Z
C. 23.86S
D. 168.08E
E. THREE/GK2A
F. T1.5/2.5/W1.0/24HRS  STT: W0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 19A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD LINES
LOCATED WITHIN 75NM OF COLD OVERCAST YIELD A DT OF 1.0. MET YIELDS
1.5. PT YIELDS 1.0. DBO MET.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   RUCKER

pocketbox

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 220716 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD06F CENTRE [1000HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 24.5S
169.4E AT 220600UTC. TD06F MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 20 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-9 IR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.

THE SYSTEM LIES UNDER LOW TO MODERATE UPPER DIVERGENCE WITH GOOD
DIVERGENCE TO THE SOUTH. LOW TO MODERATE WIND SHEAR WITH DEEP
CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SUPPOSED LLCC. DRY AIR
ENTERING FROM THE SOUTHEAST. SST AROUND 27 DEGREES CELSIUS. THE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE STEERED SOUTHEAST BY THE NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM WITH LITTLE INTENSIFICATION.

TD06F IS EXPECTED TO EXIT RSMC NADI'S AOR LATE TONIGHT.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
VERY LOW.

*********************************************************************

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

ygsj24

WTPS31 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 006   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   220600Z --- NEAR 24.5S 169.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 25 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 24.5S 169.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z --- 25.8S 174.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 20 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z --- 26.2S 178.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z --- 26.3S 178.0W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 24.8S 170.6E.
22JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
232 NM SOUTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 25 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 220600Z IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
221500Z, 222100Z, 230300Z AND 230900Z.
//
NNNN

1. WDPS31 PGTW 220900
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WARNING
   
4. NR 006//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 24.5S 169.4E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 232 NM SOUTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 25 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
    
18. CYCLONE (TC) 16P WITH A COMPLETELY EXPOSED AND ELONGATING LOW-LEVEL
    
19. CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE DRY MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT HAS KEPT
    
20. SUPPORTIVE CONVECTION TO A MINIMUM OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. OVERALL,
    
21. THE ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE SINCE THE
    
22. PREVIOUS WARNING, WITH WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WARM SEA SURFACE
    
23. TEMPERATURES (26-27 C), AND INCREASING DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. THE
    
24. INITIAL POSITION HAS BEEN PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
    
25. EXPOSED LLCC, OBSERVED ON ANIMATED MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35
    
26. KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON SUBJECTIVE AGENCY
    
27. DVORAK ESTIMATES BELOW 30 KTS AND CIMSS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY
    
28. ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 27 KTS TO 35 KTS.
    
29. 
    
30. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
    
31. 
    
32. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
    
33. CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST
    
34. 
    
35. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
36.    PGTW: T1.0 - 25 KTS
    
37.    CIMSS SATCON: 35 KTS AT 220301Z
    
38.    CIMSS ADT: 28 KTS AT 220530Z
    
39.    CIMSS AIDT: 31 KTS AT 220530Z
    
40.    CIMSS D-MINT: 23 KTS AT 220212Z
    
41.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 27 KTS AT 220600Z
    
42. 
    
43. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY
    
44. UNFAVORABLE
    
45.    VWS: 10-15 KTS
    
46.    SST: 26-27 CELSIUS
    
47.    OUTFLOW: WEAK POLEWARD
    
48. 
    
49. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
50.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
51.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
52.    INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
    
53. 
    
54. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
55. 
    
56. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
57. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
58. 
    
59. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 16P IS FORECASTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
    
60. EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF FORECAST PERIOD, ALONG
    
61. THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
    
62. REGARDING INTENSITY, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR 35 KTS
    
63. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH SUPPORT FROM WARM SEA SURFACE
    
64. TEMPERATURES ABOVE 26 C AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF LESS THAN 15
    
65. KTS. FOLLOWING TAU 24, TC 16P WILL SUCCUMB TO THE EXCESSIVE DRY AIR
    
66. ENTRAINMENT AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR UNTIL THE END OF THE
    
67. FORECAST PERIOD. BY TAU 36, TC 16P IS FORECASTED TO COMPLETELY
    
68. DISSIPATE OVER WATER.
    
69. 
    
70. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
    
71. DURING THE ENTIRETY OF THE TRACK FORECAST, WITH A 70 NM CROSS-TRACK
    
72. BY TAU 36. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN PLACED WITH HIGH
    
73. CONFIDENCE AND ALIGNED JUST SOUTH OF THE JTWC CONSENSUS. REGARDING
    
74. INTENSITY, ALL JTWC INTENSITY CONSENSUS MEMBERS ILLUSTRATE STEADY
    
75. INTENSITIES NEAR 35 KTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOLLOWING TAU 24, A
    
76. GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR ALL CONSENSUS MEMBERS, AS
    
77. THE VORTEX ELONGATES AND IS NEGATIVELY INFLUENCED BY PERSISTENT
    
78. DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. THEREFORE, THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN
    
79. ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
    
80. 
    
81. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
82.    TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
    
83.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH//
    
84. NNNN

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红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 06Z分析降至T1.0/2.0，SSD分析TOO WEAK

TPPS10 PGTW 220551
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SE OF NOUMEA)
B. 22/0530Z
C. 24.28S
D. 169.50E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T1.0/2.0/W1.5/24HRS  STT: W0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES LOCATED WITHIN 75NM OF COLD OVERCAST YIELD A DT OF 1.0. MET
YIELDS 1.5. PT YIELDS 1.0. DBO DT. BROKE CONSTRAINTS DUE TO RAPID
WEAKENING.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   RUCKER

TXPS27 KNES 220633
TCSWSP
A.  16P (NONAME)
B.  22/0530Z
C.  24.6S
D.  169.8E
E.  THREE/HIMAWARI-9
F.  TOO WEAK
G.  IR/EIR/VIS
H.  REMARKS...THIS SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY DUE TO A LACK OF
CONVECTION. THIS WILL BE THE FINAL BULLETIN UNLESS RE-INTENSIFICATION
OCCURS.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...COVERDALE

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 09Z分析维持T1.0/2.0

TPPS10 PGTW 220833
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SE OF NOUMEA)
B. 22/0830Z
C. 24.62S
D. 170.94E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T1.0/2.0/W1.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES LOCATED WITHIN 75NM OF COLD OVERCAST YIELD A DT OF 1.0. MET
YIELDS 1.5. PT YIELDS 1.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   RUCKER

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 12Z分析T2.5/2.5

TPPS10 PGTW 221253
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SE OF NEW CALEDONIA)
B. 22/1140Z
C. 24.94S
D. 172.09E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T2.5/2.5/S0.0/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 47A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. TIGHTLY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES WITH COLD OVERCAST GREATER THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELD A DT OF
2.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   22/0708Z  24.55S  170.70E  SARI
   PETERSEN

pocketbox

WTPS31 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 007   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   221200Z --- NEAR 25.2S 172.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 28 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 25.2S 172.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   230000Z --- 26.1S 177.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 18 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   231200Z --- 26.1S 178.8W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   240000Z --- 26.1S 175.9W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 25.4S 173.6E.
22JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
353 NM NORTHEAST OF KINGSTON IS., HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 28 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 221200Z IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
222100Z, 230300Z, 230900Z AND 231500Z.
//
NNNN

1. WDPS31 PGTW 221500
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WARNING
   
4. NR 007//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 25.2S 172.4E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 353 NM NORTHEAST OF KINGSTON ISLAND.
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 28 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
    
18. CYCLONE (TC) 16P WITH A FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
    
19. (LLCC) WITH A SINGLE AREA OF INTERMITTENT AND SHORT-LIVED
    
20. CONVECTION FLARING ALONG THE SYSTEMS SOUTHERN FLANK. UPPER-LEVEL
    
21. SUPPORT IS LIMITED, EVIDENT ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING
    
22. A WEAK POLEWARD CHANNEL TO THE SOUTH. THE MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE
    
23. ENVIRONMENT HAS CONTINUED SINCE THE PREVIOUS WARNING, WITH WARM SEA
    
24. SURFACE TEMPERATURES RANGING BETWEEN 26-27 C, MINIMAL VERTICAL WIND
    
25. SHEAR (VWS) OF LESS THAN 15 KTS, AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WRAPPING
    
26. AROUND THE CENTRAL VORTEX FROM THE WEST. THE INITIAL POSITION HAS
    
27. BEEN PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON ANIMATED EIR SATELLITE
    
28. IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ASSESSED WITH HIGH
    
29. CONFIDENCE BASED ON PERSISTENCE FROM AN EARLIER 220708Z RCM-2 PASS.
    
30. 
    
31. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SAR DATA
    
32. 
    
33. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
    
34. CENTERED TO THE NORTH
    
35. 
    
36. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
37.    PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
    
38.    PHFO: T2.0 - 30 KTS
    
39.    CIMSS SATCON: 44 KTS AT 221018Z
    
40.    CIMSS ADT: 31 KTS AT 221130Z
    
41.    CIMSS AIDT: 34 KTS AT 221130Z
    
42.    CIMSS D-MINT: 24 KTS AT 221115Z
    
43.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 29 KTS AT 221230Z
    
44. 
    
45. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY
    
46. UNFAVORABLE
    
47.    VWS: 5-10 KTS
    
48.    SST: 26-27 CELSIUS
    
49.    OUTFLOW: WEAK POLEWARD
    
50. 
    
51. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
52.    INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
    
53.    INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
    
54.    INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH
    
55. 
    
56. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
57. 
    
58. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
59. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
60. 
    
61. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 16P IS FORECASTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
    
62. EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, BECOMING EASTWARD
    
63. THEREAFTER UNTIL THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
    
64. PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYER STR TO THE NORTH. REGARDING INTENSITY,
    
65. MARGINAL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL SUSTAIN TC 16P NEAR 40 KTS
    
66. THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT COMPETES WITH
    
67. RELATIVELY LOW VWS OF LESS THAN 15 KTS AND WARM SST BETWEEN 26-27
    
68. C. FOLLOWING TAU 24, THE CYCLONE WILL WEAKEN TOWARD 35 KTS AS DRY
    
69. AIR ERODES THE CENTRAL VORTEX INTO DISSIPATION BY TAU 36.
    
70. 
    
71. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
    
72. AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH A 58
    
73. NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD BY TAU 36. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS ALIGNED
    
74. CLOSELY WITH THE JTWC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, LENDING HIGH
    
75. CONFIDENCE TO THE TRACK FORECAST. REGARDING INTENSITY, JTWC
    
76. CONSENSUS MEMBERS HAVE INCREASED TO A SPREAD OF 15 KTS, WITH THE
    
77. GFS DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION WEAKENING TOWARD 30 KTS BY TAU 12, WHERE
    
78. COAMPS-TC AND HAFS MESOSCALE SOLUTIONS EXPECT A SLIGHT
    
79. INTENSIFICATION TREND TOWARD 40 KTS BY TAU 12. FOLLOWING TAU 24,
    
80. ALL JTWC INTENSITY CONSENSUS MEMBERS SHOW A GRADUAL DISSIPATION
    
81. TO 35 KTS BY TAU 36, LENDING MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC INTENSITY
    
82. FORECAST.
    
83. 
    
84. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
85.    TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
    
86.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM//
    
87. NNNN

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红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 15Z分析维持T2.5/2.5

TPPS10 PGTW 221506
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SE OF NEW CALEDONIA)
B. 22/1430Z
C. 25.36S
D. 173.17E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T2.5/2.5/S0.0/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 47A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. TIGHTLY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES LOCATED NEAR COLD OVERCAST YIELD A DT OF 2.5. MET AND PT
AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   22/1018Z  25.12S  171.72E  MMHS
   PETERSEN

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 18Z分析降至T2.0/2.5

TPPS10 PGTW 221758
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SE OF NEW CALEDONIA)
B. 22/1730Z
C. 25.65S
D. 174.79E
E. FIVE/HMWRI9
F. T2.0/2.5/W0.5/24HRS  STT: W0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 47A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. TIGHTLY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES LOCATED WITHIN 75NM OF COLD OVERCAST YIELD A DT OF 2.0. MET
YIELDS 2.5. PT YIELDS 2.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   HUYNH

ygsj24

WTPS31 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 008   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   221800Z --- NEAR 25.8S 174.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 24 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 25.8S 174.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z --- 26.3S 179.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z --- 26.4S 177.2W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z --- 26.6S 174.3W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 25.9S 175.9E.
22JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
427 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF KINGSTON IS., HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 24 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 221800Z IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
230300Z, 230900Z, 231500Z AND 232100Z.
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