莫桑比克海峡中等热带风暴第10号“盖扎尼”(21S.Gezani) - 西行近岸爆发穿越马达加斯加中部，进入莫峡再度增强，尔后或在莫峡南部回旋 - MAX MFR:100KT JTWC:110KT

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 12Z分析降至T1.5/2.0

TPXS12 PGTW 041226
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90S (SW OF DIEGO GARCIA)
B. 04/1130Z
C. 11.63S
D. 63.33E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. T1.5/2.0/D0.5/24HRS  STT: W0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES LOCATED WITHIN 75NM OF COLD OVERCAST YIELD A DT OF 1.5. MET
YIELDS 1.0 AND PT YIELDS 1.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   BALMER

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 15Z分析维持T1.5/2.0

TPXS12 PGTW 041518
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90S (SW OF DIEGO GARCIA)
B. 04/1430Z
C. 12.10S
D. 63.65E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. T1.5/2.0/D0.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 47A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES WITH OVERCAST LESS THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELD A DT OF 1.5. MET
YIELDS 1.0 AND PT YIELDS 1.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   BALMER

红豆棒冰冰

ABIO10 PGTW 041800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/041800Z-051800ZFEB2026//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
11.3S 63.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.6S 63.4E, APPROXIMATELY 625 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) REVEALS AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS
CONTINUING TO CONSOLIDATE. DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BUILD AROUND
THE CENTER AS EVIDENCED BY SIGNIFICANTLY COOLED CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20
KNOTS), GOOD UPPER-LEVEL EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (28-29 C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SLOW SOUTHWARD TRACK
AND STEADY DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.6S
128.5E, APPROXIMATELY 59 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF WYNDHAM, AUSTRALIA.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A
RELATIVELY WEAK AND DISORGANIZED MASS OF BROADLY TURNING CONVECTION
WITH A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 041233Z METOP-C 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE FURTHER SUPPORTS THIS BY FURTHER REVEALING THE BROAD
DISORGANIZED NATURE OF 98P ALONG WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION BEING
DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME WITH LOW TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20KTS) AND GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE SPLIT ON DEVELOPMENT FOR THIS SYSTEM WITH GFS
AND NAVGEM HAVING 98P ENTER THE LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OF THE WESTERN
COAST OF AUSTRALIA AND QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING OVER WATER, HOWEVER ECMWF
AND AIFS SHOW THE CIRCULATION INTENSIFYING BY A MARGINAL AMOUNT AND
REAMING INLAND THROUGHOUT THE DURATION OF ITS SHORT LIFE CYCLE.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.//
NNNN

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 18Z分析维持T1.5/2.0

TPXS12 PGTW 041817
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90S (SW OF DIEGO GARCIA)
B. 04/1730Z
C. 12.34S
D. 63.24E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. T1.5/2.0/D0.5/27HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. CIRCULARLY DEFINED
CLOUD LINES LOCATED WITHIN 75NM OF COLD OVERCAST YIELD A DT OF
1.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   RUCKER

红豆棒冰冰

红豆棒冰冰 发表于 2026-2-5 02:21
JTWC 18Z分析维持T1.5/2.0

JTWC稍早前重新分析

TPXS12 PGTW 042031
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90S (SW OF DIEGO GARCIA)
B. 04/1731Z
C. 12.03S
D. 62.93E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. T1.5/2.0/D0.5/27HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. CIRCULARLY DEFINED
CLOUD LINES LOCATED WITHIN 75NM OF COLD OVERCAST YIELD A DT OF
1.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT. REANALYZED POSITION.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   RUCKER

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 21Z分析维持T1.5/2.0

TPXS12 PGTW 042035
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90S (SW OF DIEGO GARCIA)
B. 04/2030Z
C. 12.17S
D. 62.83E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. T1.5/2.0/S0.0/21HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. CIRCULARLY DEFINED
CLOUD LINES LOCATED WITHIN 75NM OF COLD OVERCAST YIELD A DT OF
1.5. MET YIELDS 1.5. PT YIELDS 2.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   RUCKER

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 00Z分析升回T2.0/2.0

TPXS12 PGTW 042346
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90S (SW OF DIEGO GARCIA)
B. 04/2330Z
C. 12.73S
D. 62.78E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS  STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. CIRCULARLY DEFINED
CLOUD LINES WITH COLD OVERCAST GREATER THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELD A DT
OF 2.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   RUCKER

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 03Z分析维持T2.0/2.0

TPXS12 PGTW 050318
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90S (SW OF DIEGO GARCIA)
B. 05/0230Z
C. 12.98S
D. 62.23E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. CIRCULARLY DEFINED
CLOUD LINES WITH COLD OVERCAST GREATER THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELD A DT
OF 2.0. MET YIELDS 2.5. PT YIELDS 2.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   THOMPSON

pocketbox

WTIO30 FMEE 050737
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/10/20252026
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 10

2.A POSITION 2026/02/05 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.5 S / 61.8 E
(THIRTEEN    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY ONE    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1006 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/02/05 18 UTC: 14.3 S / 61.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 155 SW: 165 NW: 85

24H: 2026/02/06 06 UTC: 15.1 S / 60.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 130 SW: 95 NW: 0

36H: 2026/02/06 18 UTC: 15.8 S / 60.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 140 SW: 120 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 95 SW: 0 NW: 75

48H: 2026/02/07 06 UTC: 16.5 S / 59.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 120 SW: 95 NW: 100

60H: 2026/02/07 18 UTC: 17.0 S / 59.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 240 SW: 165 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 150 SW: 110 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

72H: 2026/02/08 06 UTC: 17.4 S / 58.3 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 280 SW: 205 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 165 SW: 130 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/02/09 06 UTC: 17.9 S / 55.4 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 335 SW: 325 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 185 SW: 175 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

120H: 2026/02/10 06 UTC: 19.1 S / 51.8 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 445 SW: 285 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 240 SW: 185 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 80 SW: 70 NW: 70
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.0

SINCE WEDNESDAY EVENING, CONVECTION HAS REMAINED FLUCTUATING WITH A
LOW-LEVEL CENTRE THAT HAS BECOME MORE DEFINITE BUT REMAINS EXPOSED ON
THE SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION. THE ASCAT-C SWATH AT 1740Z
YESTERDAY EVENING AND 0447Z THIS MORNING ALLOW US TO ESTIMATE MAXIMUM
WINDS OF 30KT IN THE MONSOON FLOW TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM.
HOWEVER, THE SHEARED STRUCTURE AND WIND FIELD STRONG ASYMMETRY
SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE CLASSIFIED AS A ZONE OF DISTURBED
WEATHER RATHER THAN A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

REGARDING THE TRACK, THE ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS MOVING
SOUTHWEST, STEERED BY HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE
EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND BY THE REMNANTS OF SYSTEM FYTIA SOUTH OF THE
MASCARENES. AS THE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES, IT IS BEING INFLUENCED BY
HIGHER ALTITUDE FLOWS AND IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN ON SATURDAY,
TRAPPED IN A BAROMETRIC COL BETWEEN TWO MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGES. FROM
SUNDAY, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE WESTWARD STEERED BY THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR, WHILE CIRCULATING AT A
STILL UNCERTAIN DISTANCE FROM THE GREAT  MASCARENE ISLANDS. THE
AVAILABLE DETERMINISTIC, ENSEMBLE AND AI MODELS REMAIN QUITE
DISPERSED ON THE TIMING OF THE WESTWARD TURN AND MAKE THE FORECAST OF
THE TRACK UNCERTAIN IN THE MEDIUM RANGE.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY
FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN DEEP
WIND SHEAR AS IT MOVES OVER WARM WATERS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEREFORE
SLOWLY INTENSIFY ON FRIDAY AND THEN MORE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM SATURDAY
ONWARDS AS THE POLAR DIVERGENCE OF THE SYSTEM IMPROVES. IT COULD
REACH TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS ON SUNDAY, OR EVEN INTENSE TROPICAL
STATUS ON MONDAY, ALTHOUGH THE TIMING OF ITS INTENSIFICATION IS STILL
UNCLEAR AMIDST THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE AVAILABLE.

IMPACT ON INHABITED AREAS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:

SAINT BRANDON:
- GALE-FORCE WINDS OR EVEN STORM FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE BETWEEN FRIDAY
EVENING AND SATURDAY EVENING.
- HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE FROM SATURDAY. 100-150 MM IN 24 HOURS.
- GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT ON SUNDAY.

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 06Z分析维持T2.0/2.0

TPXS12 PGTW 050627
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90S (SW OF DIEGO GARCIA)
B. 05/0530Z
C. 13.33S
D. 62.02E
E. THREE/MET9
F. T2.0/2.0/S0.0/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 19A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. LLCC LOCATED WITHIN 75NM OF
COLD OVERCAST GREATER THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELDS A DT OF 2.0. MET
YIELDS 2.5. PT YIELDS 2.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   THOMPSON