罗德里格斯岛东北热带气旋第11号“霍拉西奥”(22S.Horacio) - 逐渐南下 - MFR:65KT JTWC:65KT

ygsj24

WTXS31 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HORACIO) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HORACIO) WARNING NR 006   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   220600Z --- NEAR 17.2S 69.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S 69.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z --- 18.0S 68.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z --- 19.1S 66.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z --- 20.8S 65.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z --- 22.6S 64.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z --- 27.0S 65.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z --- 30.4S 67.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   270600Z --- 32.7S 64.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 69.4E. 22FEB26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S
(HORACIO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 625 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO
GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 220600Z IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
222100Z AND 230900Z.//
NNNN

1. WDXS31 PGTW 220900
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HORACIO) WARNING
   
4. NR 006//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 17.2S 69.9E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 625 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 21 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A COMPACT
    
18. SYSTEM, WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
    
19. AND MODERATE CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. DRY MID-LEVEL AIR
    
20. IS APPARENT ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE CIRCULATION, WHICH REMAINS
    
21. DEVOID OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. VORTICAL HOT TOWERS (VHTS)
    
22. ARE PERSISTENT IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE INNER CORE, BUT
    
23. HAVE YET TO PROPAGATE UPSHEAR, INHIBITED BY A PERSISTENT EASTERLY
    
24. SHEAR VECTOR AND ENTRAINMENT OF DRY AIR ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
    
25. VORTEX. A 220707Z GMI 89GHZ IMAGE REVEALED A WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL
    
26. ROTATIONAL CENTER, AND DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING TO ORGANIZE INTO
    
27. BANDS EXTENDING FROM WEST TO NORTH OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION
    
28. IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE 36GHZ GMI IMAGE, WHICH
    
29. REVEALED A NASCENT, SLIGHTLY ELONGATED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE
    
30. INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, CONSISTENT WITH
    
31. T3.0 DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, DEMS AND FIMP.
    
32. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING AND CHARACTERIZED AS OVERALL
    
33. FAVORABLE. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS SUBSIDED SOMEWHAT OVER THE
    
34. PAST 12 HOURS, AS INDICATED BY THE STEADILY IMPROVING CONVECTIVE
    
35. STRUCTURE SEEN IN THE ANIMATED MSI. SSTS REMAIN WARM, OHC IS
    
36. MODERATELY HIGH, AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS MODERATE WITH A POLEWARD
    
37. COMPONENT.
    
38. 
    
39. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
    
40. 
    
41. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
    
42. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST.
    
43. 
    
44. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
45.    PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
    
46.    DEMS: T3.0 - 45 KTS
    
47.    FMEE: T3.5 - 55 KTS
    
48.    FIMP: T3.0 - 45 KTS
    
49.    CIMSS SATCON: 42 KTS AT 220330Z
    
50.    CIMSS ADT: 34 KTS AT 220600Z
    
51.    CIMSS AIDT: 34 KTS AT 220600Z
    
52.    CIMSS D-MINT: 45 KTS AT 220702Z
    
53.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 36 KTS AT 220600Z
    
54. 
    
55. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
    
56.    VWS: 10-15 KTS
    
57.    SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
    
58.    OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD
    
59.    OTHER FACTORS: VORTEX MISALIGNMENT AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IN
    
60. THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.
    
61. 
    
62. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
63.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
64.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
65.    INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
    
66. 
    
67. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
68. 
    
69. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
70. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
71. 
    
72. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S WILL TRANSIT ALONG A
    
73. RECURVING TRACK OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS, TURNING SOUTHWEST THEN
    
74. SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN AXIS OF
    
75. THE STR TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REACH THE RIDGE
    
76. AXIS BY TAU 48, DECELERATING TO A MINIMUM TRANSLATIONAL SPEED, BEFORE
    
77. ACCELERATING BEYOND TAU 72. BEYOND TAU 72, A TRANSIENT RIDGE DEVELOPS
    
78. TO THE SOUTH IN THE LEE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH; CONSEQUENTLY, TC
    
79. 22S WILL TURN SHARPLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 96, TRANSITING
    
80. ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE. REGARDING INTENSITY,
    
81. SHEAR IS DECREASING, AND THIS TREND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVER THE
    
82. SHORT-TERM, FACILITATING THE ONSET OF RAPID VORTEX ALIGNMENT AND
    
83. SYMMETRIZATION. THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12
    
84. HOURS AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS STEADILY IMPROVE. BEGINNING AT TAU
    
85. 12, HOWEVER, TC 22S IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI)
    
86. AS CONDITIONS OPTIMIZE, REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS BY TAU
    
87. 48. IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING TAU 48, SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE
    
88. SHARPLY, AND THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND. DRY MID-LEVEL
    
89. AIR IS EXPECTED TO INTRUDE FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER TAU 72,
    
90. COINCIDENT WITH NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR REACHING A MAGNITUDE OF OVER 45
    
91. KNOTS, MARKING THE ONSET OF A PERIOD OF RAPID WEAKENING WHICH
    
92. CONTINUES THROUGH TAU 96. AFTER TAU 96, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
    
93. WEAKEN, THOUGH AT A REDUCED PACE AS SHEAR SUBSIDES AS THE SYSTEM
    
94. PASSES UNDER A JET MAXIMUM, TRANSITIONS UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW, AND
    
95. BEGINS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ET).
    
96. 
    
97. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC, ENSEMBLE AND ARTIFICIAL
    
98. INTELLIGENCE (AI) TRACK GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
    
99. OVERALL TRACK SCENARIO, WITH MINIMAL (LESS THAN 100NM) CROSS- OR
    
100. ALONG-TRACK UNCERTAINTY THROUGH TAU 72. CROSS-TRACK SPREAD INCREASES
     
101. MARGINALLY BY TAU 96, BUT SUBSEQUENTLY CONVERGES TO JUST 135NM BY TAU
     
102. 120. THE NAVGEM MODEL DEFINES THE WESTERN-MOST BOUNDARY OF THE TRACK
     
103. ENVELOPE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WHILE THE EC-AIFS AND FGNI AI
     
104. MODELS DEFINE THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. THE JTWC FORECAST IS CONSISTENT
     
105. WITH THE ECMWF AND AI CONSENSUS TRACKER THROUGH TAU 120 WITH HIGH
     
106. CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS MIXED, WITH THE GLOBAL-MODEL BASED
     
107. SHIPS (GFS AND NAVGEM) CONTINUING TO DEPICT A GENERALLY FLAT
     
108. INTENSITY TREND, LIMITING PEAK INTENSITY TO 55 KNOTS BY TAU 48. THE
     
109. MESOSCALE MODELS (HWRF, HAFS-A, COAMPS-TC) MEANWHILE ARE TIGHTLY
     
110. CONSTRAINED, RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING THE SYSTEM THROUGH TAU 48 TO A PEAK
     
111. BETWEEN 100-105 KNOTS. ADDITIONALLY, THE DTOP AND RIDE RAPID
     
112. INTENSIFICATION (RI) AIDS ARE TRIGGERED, AND THE COAMPS-TC, ECEPS AND
     
113. FGNI ENSEMBLE INTENSIFICATION PROBABILITIES INDICATE 40-60 PERCENT
     
114. CHANCES OF RI THROUGH TAU 48, PROVIDING ADDITIONAL CONFIDENCE TO THE
     
115. EXPLICIT FORECAST OF RI. THE JTWC FORECAST IS ALIGNED NEAR THE DTOP
     
116. AND HAFS-A TREND LINE THROUGH TAU 48 AND THE HAFS-A THROUGH THE END OF
     
117. THE FORECAST WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
     
118. 
     
119. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
     
120.    TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
     
121.    TRACK 72-120 HR: HIGH
     
122.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
     
123.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
     
124. NNNN

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Enceladus

东风风切减弱，似有初步卷眼迹象。

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全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：徐立、刘涛  签发：董林  2026 年 02 月 22 日 18 时
“霍拉西奥”向西偏南方向移动

时  间: 2月22日14时（北京时，下同）

海  域: 西南印度洋

命  名: “霍拉西奥”，HORACIO

中心位置: 南纬17.1度，东经69.9度

强度等级: 热带风暴

最大风力: 9级，24米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级

中心气压: 996百帕

参考位置: 距离西南印度洋法属留尼旺东北方向约1575公里

变化过程: 过去24小时，“霍拉西奥”由8级加强为9级

预报结论: “霍拉西奥”将以每小时15-20公里的速度向西偏南方向移动，强度逐渐加强。



图1  卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2026年2月22日14时00分）

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WTIO30 FMEE 221229
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/11/20252026
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (HORACIO)

2.A POSITION 2026/02/22 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.4 S / 69.1 E
(SEVENTEEN    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY NINE    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 295 SW: 205 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 140 NW: 140

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/02/23 00 UTC: 18.6 S / 67.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 240 SW: 185 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 35

24H: 2026/02/23 12 UTC: 19.9 S / 65.8 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 250 SW: 185 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SW: 120 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

36H: 2026/02/24 00 UTC: 21.7 S / 64.7 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 280 SW: 215 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 130 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

48H: 2026/02/24 12 UTC: 23.9 S / 64.7 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 285 SW: 215 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 155 SW: 130 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

60H: 2026/02/25 00 UTC: 26.0 S / 65.4 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 295 SW: 260 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

72H: 2026/02/25 12 UTC: 28.6 S / 67.0 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 325 SW: 250 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 185 SW: 155 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 85 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/02/26 12 UTC: 30.2 S / 67.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 390 SW: 250 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 220 SW: 165 NW: 100

120H: 2026/02/27 12 UTC: 32.7 S / 64.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 285 SW: 215 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 155 SW: 130 NW: 130

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED, BUT WITH AN
IMPROVED CURVATURE IN THE LAST FEW MINUTES, PRESENTING A CURVED BAND
CONFIGURATION THAT IS SLIGHTLY MORE DEFINITE THAN PREVIOUSLY. THE
DVORAK ANALYSIS REMAINS AT 3.0 WITH A WEAKENING CI. THE VARIOUS
OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER BUT ON THE UPWARD TREND.
INTENSIFICATION APPEARS TO BE BEGINNING, ALTHOUGH THE LACK OF RECENT
MICROWAVE OR DIFFUSIOMETRIC DATA DOES NOT ALLOW THIS ANALYSIS TO BE
VALIDATED. WINDS OF 40KT ARE THEREFORE ESTIMATED FOR HORACIO, WHICH
REMAINS AT THE MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STAGE.

NO CHANGE IN THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST, HORACIO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ITS TRACK ALONG THE NORTHWEST AND THEN WEST EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHWARD
FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS, CURVING ITS MOVEMENT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
THEREAFTER. IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THE ARRIVAL OF A NEW MIDDLE
AND LOW TROPOSPHERE RIDGE IN THE SOUTH COULD TEMPORARILY BLOCK
HORACIO'S EVACUATION TOWARDS THE MIDDLE LATITUDES, BEFORE SLIDING
OVER THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS RIDGE, INDUCING A DIRECTING FLOW OF THE
LOWER TROPOSPHERE TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST. DISPERSION WITHIN THE
GUIDANCES IS LOW IN THE SHORT TERM, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CERTAIN
MODELS WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER TRACK AND INCREASES MORE SIGNIFICANTLY
WHEN MOVEMENT RESUMES IN THE LONG TERM. OUR CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS CLOSE TO THE AVERAGES OF THE IA ENSEMBLES AND
THE IFS ENSEMBLE.

REGARDING THE INTENSITY FORECAST, HORACIO COULD INTENSIFY IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AS THE EASTWARD SHEAR DECREASES. AS A RESULT, ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VERY FAVORABLE. A MARKED, EVEN RAPID
INTENSIFICATION IS THEREFORE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY SINCE THE SYSTEM
COULD ALSO BE SMALL IN SIZE. THE STAGE OF INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
THEREFORE EXPECTED, AT THE LATEST DURING THE NIGHT FROM MONDAY TO
TUESDAY. FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS, HORACIO WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN UNDER THE
EFFECT OF INCREASING ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR. THIS WEAKENING WILL BE
CONTINUOUS AND WILL LEAVE A FAIRLY WEAK SYSTEM, PROBABLY AT THE STAGE
OF A REMNANT LOW WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FAIRLY LIMITED BY THE
PRESENCE OF DRY AIR FROM THURSDAY ONWARDS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON A SCENARIO OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION, AS SUGGESTED BY SEVERAL
GUIDANCES.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES :

RODRIGUES MONDAY AND TUESDAY :
- GALE FORCE WINDS UNLIKELY
- HEAVY SHOWERS POSSIBLE
- WAVES OF UP TO 4 METERS LIKELY MONDAY AT MIDDAY.

Ragasa

WTIO30 FMEE 221840
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/11/20252026
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (HORACIO)

2.A POSITION 2026/02/22 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.9 S / 68.1 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 295 SW: 205 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 140 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 70 NW: 75

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/02/23 06 UTC: 19.1 S / 66.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 260 SW: 195 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 30

24H: 2026/02/23 18 UTC: 20.6 S / 65.1 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 260 SW: 205 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

36H: 2026/02/24 06 UTC: 22.2 S / 64.4 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 285 SW: 215 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

48H: 2026/02/24 18 UTC: 24.3 S / 64.5 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 295 SW: 215 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 165 SW: 140 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

60H: 2026/02/25 06 UTC: 27.4 S / 66.0 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 305 SW: 240 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

72H: 2026/02/25 18 UTC: 29.4 S / 67.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 325 SW: 270 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 185 SW: 155 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/02/26 18 UTC: 30.4 S / 67.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, REMNANT LOW
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 380 SW: 280 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 220 SW: 175 NW: 110

120H: 2026/02/27 18 UTC: 33.1 S / 64.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, REMNANT LOW
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 315 SW: 155 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 175 SW: 110 NW: 120

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5+

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS RESUMED, PARTICULARLY
NEAR THE CENTER. THE DVORAK ANALYSIS HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO 3.5+. WITH
DECREASING NORTHEAST SHEAR, INTENSIFICATION APPEARS TO BE UNDERWAY,
EVEN THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN NO DIFFUSIOMETRIC PASS TO CONFIRM THIS. THE
F16 MICROWAVE IMAGE FROM 1510Z CONFIRMS A CLEAR IMPROVEMENT IN THE
STRUCTURE, AND THE OBJECTIVE DMINT ESTIMATE BASED ON THIS IMAGE
ESTIMATES MAXIMUM WINDS OF NEARLY 50 KT. IN LIGHT OF THESE DATA,
HORACIO IS NOW CLASSIFIED AS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM WITH MAXIMUM
WINDS OF 50 KT.

NO CHANGE IN THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST, HORACIO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ITS TRACK ALONG THE NORTHWEST AND THEN WEST EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHWARD
FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS, CURVING ITS MOVEMENT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
THEREAFTER. IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THE ARRIVAL OF A NEW MIDDLE AND
LOW TROPOSPHERE RIDGE IN THE SOUTH COULD TEMPORARILY BLOCK HORACIO'S
EVACUATION TOWARDS THE MIDDLE LATITUDES, BEFORE SLIDING OVER THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THIS RIDGE, INDUCING A DIRECTING FLOW OF THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST. DISPERSION WITHIN THE GUIDANCES IS
LOW IN THE SHORT TERM, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CERTAIN MODELS WITH A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER TRACK AND INCREASES MORE SIGNIFICANTLY WHEN
MOVEMENT RESUMES IN THE LONG TERM. OUR CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS CLOSE TO THE AVERAGES OF THE IA ENSEMBLES AND THE
IFS ENSEMBLE.

REGARDING THE INTENSITY FORECAST, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL
BECOME VERY FAVORABLE. A MARKED, EVEN RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS
THEREFORE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY SINCE THE SYSTEM COULD ALSO BE SMALL IN
SIZE. THE STAGE OF INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS THEREFORE EXPECTED, AT
THE LATEST DURING THE NIGHT FROM MONDAY TO TUESDAY. FROM TUESDAY
ONWARDS, HORACIO WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN UNDER THE EFFECT OF INCREASING
ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR. THIS WEAKENING WILL BE CONTINUOUS AND WILL
LEAVE A FAIRLY WEAK SYSTEM, PROBABLY AT THE STAGE OF A REMNANT LOW
WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FAIRLY LIMITED BY THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR FROM
THURSDAY ONWARDS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A SCENARIO OF
RAPID INTENSIFICATION, AS SUGGESTED BY SEVERAL GUIDANCES.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES :

RODRIGUES MONDAY AND TUESDAY :
- GALE FORCE WINDS UNLIKELY
- HEAVY SHOWERS POSSIBLE
- WAVES OF UP TO 4 METERS LIKELY MONDAY AT MIDDAY.

Ragasa

WTXS31 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HORACIO) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HORACIO) WARNING NR 007   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   221800Z --- NEAR 17.8S 68.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S 68.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z --- 19.0S 66.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z --- 20.5S 65.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z --- 22.4S 64.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z --- 24.5S 64.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z --- 29.1S 67.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z --- 31.3S 66.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   271800Z --- 33.6S 65.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 18.1S 67.8E.
22FEB26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HORACIO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 634 NM
EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 221800Z IS
989 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 230900Z AND 232100Z.//
NNNN

1. WDXS31 PGTW 222100
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HORACIO) WARNING
   
4. NR 007//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 17.8S 68.2E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 634 NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 24 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
    
18. CYCLONE 22S (HORACIO) WITH SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED VORTEX ALIGNMENT
    
19. AND CENTRALIZED CONVECTION. CIRRUS FILAMENTS CAN BE SEEN EXPANDING
    
20. OUTWARD FROM THE SYSTEM IN ALL DIRECTIONS, INDICATIVE OF STRONG
    
21. OUTFLOW CHANNELS. THE EASTERLY SHEAR APPEARS TO HAVE MARKEDLY
    
22. LESSENED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, WITH EASTWARD OUTFLOW MUCH LESS
    
23. RESTRICTED. A 221458Z F16 SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWED THE
    
24. COMPACT INNER-CORE OF THE SYSTEM WITH A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE THAT
    
25. HAS A SLIGHT WEAKNESS WITHIN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. A 221400Z
    
26. RCM-3 SAR IMAGE REVEALED THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE CONFINED TO
    
27. THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE VMAX MEASUREMENT OF THE SAR PASS WAS
    
28. 68 KTS AND WAS LOCATED DIRECTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER. THE
    
29. INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED
    
30. ON THE AGREEMENT OF T3.5 DVORAK FIXES FROM ALL AGENCIES, SUPPORTED
    
31. BY THE SAR IMAGE (WITH A REDUCTION FROM THE VMAX DUE TO THE KNOWN
    
32. HIGH BIAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RCM SENSORS). CIMSS ESTIMATES, WITH
    
33. THE EXCEPTION OF DMINT, ARE ANALYZED TO BE TOO LOW, LIKELY DUE TO
    
34. THE SMALLER SIZE OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
    
35. HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ANIMATED EIR IMAGERY AND EXTRAPOLATION
    
36. FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE. ENVIRONMENTAL
    
37. ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 22S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
    
38. CHARACTERIZED BY ROBUST OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL
    
39. WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (27-28 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
    
40. 
    
41. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: 221400Z RCM-3 SAR DATA
    
42. 
    
43. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
    
44. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST.
    
45. 
    
46. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
47.    PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
    
48.    DEMS: T3.5 - 55 KTS
    
49.    FMEE: T3.5 - 55 KTS
    
50.    FIMP: T3.5 - 55 KTS
    
51.    CIMSS SATCON: 46 KTS AT 221630Z
    
52.    CIMSS ADT: 45 KTS AT 221800Z
    
53.    CIMSS AIDT: 38 KTS AT 221800Z
    
54.    CIMSS D-MINT: 53 KTS AT 221459Z
    
55.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 46 KTS AT 221800Z
    
56. 
    
57. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
    
58.    VWS: 10-15 KTS
    
59.    SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
    
60.    OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
    
61. 
    
62. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
63.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
64.    INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
    
65.    INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH
    
66. 
    
67. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
68. 
    
69. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
70. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
71. 
    
72. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 22S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD,
    
73. ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 36. NEAR
    
74. TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL TURN SOUTHWARD AND THEN SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
    
75. AS IT ATTEMPTS TO ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS. NEAR TAU 72, A SMALL STR IS
    
76. EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY BUILD TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, CAUSING THE
    
77. POLEWARD PROGRESSION TO BE OBSTRUCTED. THE INTERACTION WITH THE
    
78. SMALL STR WILL CAUSE 22S TO BE DEFLECTED TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
    
79. TAU 120 BEFORE TURNING BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST. EXTRATROPICAL
    
80. TRANSITION IS FORECAST TO BEGIN NEAR TAU 96 WITH COMPLETION AROUND
    
81. TAU 120 AS THE SYSTEM ENTERS COLD (SUB 22 C) WATERS AND TRACKS
    
82. POLEWARD OF A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL LOW, WHICH WILL INDUCE
    
83. BAROCLINICITY. REGARDING INTENSITY, 22S IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY
    
84. INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 36 TO A PEAK OF AROUND 100 KTS IN RESPONSE TO
    
85. THE LOW SHEAR AND ROBUST OUTFLOW. THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IN
    
86. PARTICULAR IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS,
    
87. SUPPORTING THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI). AFTER TAU 36,
    
88. NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY INCREASE, CAUSING 22S TO
    
89. BEGIN WEAKENING. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PASS THE 26 DEGREE
    
90. ISOTHERM AROUND TAU 72 WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES FURTHER
    
91. DROPPING THEREAFTER, WHICH WILL ALSO AID IN WEAKENING THE VORTEX
    
92. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
    
93. 
    
94. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD
    
95. AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT TAU 72, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM WHICH
    
96. TRACKS THE VORTEX SIGNIFICANTLY FURTHER WEST THAN THE REMAINDER OF
    
97. GUIDANCE. DISCOUNTING NAVGEM, THERE IS A MERE 35 NM CROSS-TRACK
    
98. SPREAD AT TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, MODELS BEGIN TO SLIGHTLY DIVERGE
    
99. DUE TO DIFFERING INTERACTIONS WITH THE SMALL RIDGE THAT BUILDS TO
    
100. THE SOUTH OF THE VORTEX. CROSS-TRACK SPREAD THEN INCREASES TO
     
101. AROUND 200 NM AT TAU 120 WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN BEING THE
     
102. WESTERN MOST MODEL (BESIDES NAVGEM) AND THE ECMWF AIFS BEING THE
     
103. EASTERNMOST MODEL. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE
     
104. ADJUSTED MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. RELIABLE
     
105. INTENSITY GUIDANCE AGREES ON RAPID OR NEAR-RAPID INTENSIFICATION
     
106. THROUGH TAU 36 WITH MULTIPLE RI AIDS TRIGGERING THIS MODEL RUN. RI
     
107. AND MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE A PEAK INTENSITY RANGING FROM 90-110 KTS.
     
108. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS
     
109. THROUGH TAU 24, AND THEN ABOUT 10 KTS HIGHER AT TAU 36, CLOSER TO
     
110. THE RI AIDS. MODELS THEN AGREE ON WEAKENING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
     
111. OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, AND THE JTWC FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY TO
     
112. THE CONSENSUS MEAN THROUGH TAU 120.
     
113. 
     
114. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
     
115.    TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
     
116.    TRACK 72-120 HR: HIGH
     
117.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
     
118.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
     
119. NNNN

复制代码

pocketbox

WTIO30 FMEE 230041
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/11/20252026
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (HORACIO)

2.A POSITION 2026/02/23 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.5 S / 67.5 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 986 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 240 SW: 260 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 215 SW: 195 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 60 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/02/23 12 UTC: 20.0 S / 65.8 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 270 SW: 250 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SW: 130 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45

24H: 2026/02/24 00 UTC: 21.7 S / 64.7 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 260 SW: 220 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SW: 140 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

36H: 2026/02/24 12 UTC: 23.6 S / 64.5 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 280 SW: 220 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SW: 140 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

48H: 2026/02/25 00 UTC: 26.1 S / 65.3 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 295 SW: 270 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 195 SW: 155 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

60H: 2026/02/25 12 UTC: 28.6 S / 66.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 295 SW: 280 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 195 SW: 165 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 65

72H: 2026/02/26 00 UTC: 30.5 S / 67.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 315 SW: 280 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 205 SW: 165 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/02/27 00 UTC: 31.6 S / 66.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, REMNANT LOW
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 360 SW: 280 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 230 SW: 175 NW: 110

120H: 2026/02/28 00 UTC: 34.5 S / 66.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT LOW
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 280 SW: 195 NW: 260

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0+

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP
NEAR THE CENTER. THE SYSTEM TEMPORARILY PRESENTED AN EYE
CONFIGURATION BEFORE TAKING ON A CDO CONFIGURATION. THE SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK ANALYSIS IN T IS UPGRADED TO 4.0 +, CORRESPONDING TO MAXIMUM
WINDS OF 60 KT. AS THE SYSTEM IS SMALL IN SIZE, ITS INTENSITY HAS BEEN VERY
FLUCTUATING SINCE IT BEGAN TO REINTENSIFY. THUS, THE RCM3 SAR
DIFFUSIMETRIC IMAGE FROM 1400Z ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 60 KT, WELL
ABOVE ALL OTHER ESTIMATES AVAILABLE AT THAT TIME. THE RSMC ESTIMATE OF
HORACIO'S INTENSITY IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
ESTIMATE AND REPRESENTS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE OBJECTIVE ADT AND
AIDT ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS. HORACIO IS NOW CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITH ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 65 KT.

NO CHANGE IN THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST, HORACIO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ITS TRACK ALONG THE NORTHWEST AND THEN WEST EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHWARD
FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS, CURVING ITS MOVEMENT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
THEREAFTER. IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THE ARRIVAL OF A NEW MIDDLE AND
LOW TROPOSPHERE RIDGE IN THE SOUTH COULD TEMPORARILY BLOCK HORACIO'S
EVACUATION TOWARDS THE MIDDLE LATITUDES, BEFORE SLIDING OVER THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THIS RIDGE, INDUCING A DIRECTING FLOW OF THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST. DISPERSION WITHIN THE GUIDANCES IS
LOW IN THE SHORT TERM, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CERTAIN MODELS WITH A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER TRACK AND INCREASES MORE SIGNIFICANTLY WHEN
MOVEMENT RESUMES IN THE LONG TERM. OUR CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS CLOSE TO THE AVERAGES OF THE IA ENSEMBLES AND THE
IFS ENSEMBLE.

REGARDING THE INTENSITY FORECAST, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL
BECOME VERY FAVORABLE. A MARKED, EVEN RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS
THEREFORE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY SINCE THE SYSTEM COULD ALSO BE SMALL IN
SIZE. THE STAGE OF INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS THEREFORE EXPECTED, AT
THE LATEST DURING THE NIGHT FROM MONDAY TO TUESDAY. FROM TUESDAY
ONWARDS, HORACIO WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN UNDER THE EFFECT OF INCREASING
ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR. THIS WEAKENING WILL BE CONTINUOUS AND WILL
LEAVE A FAIRLY WEAK SYSTEM, PROBABLY AT THE STAGE OF A REMNANT LOW
WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FAIRLY LIMITED BY THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR FROM
THURSDAY ONWARDS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A SCENARIO OF
RAPID INTENSIFICATION, AS SUGGESTED BY SEVERAL GUIDANCES.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES :

RODRIGUES MONDAY AND TUESDAY :
- GALE FORCE WINDS UNLIKELY
- HEAVY SHOWERS POSSIBLE
- WAVES OF UP TO 4 METERS LIKELY MONDAY AT MIDDAY.

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：徐立、张增海  签发：向纯怡  2026 年 02 月 23 日 10 时
“霍拉西奥”向西南方向移动

时  间: 2月23日08时（北京时，下同）

海  域: 西南印度洋

命  名: “霍拉西奥”，HORACIO

中心位置: 南纬18.5度，东经67.5度

强度等级: 热带气旋

最大风力: 12级，33米/秒，相当于我国的台风级

中心气压: 986百帕

参考位置: 距离西南印度洋法属留尼旺东偏北约1280公里

变化过程: 过去24小时，“霍拉西奥”由9级加强为12级

预报结论: “霍拉西奥”将以每小时15公里的速度向西南方向移动，强度逐渐加强。



图1  卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2026年2月23日08时00分）